Pacafi (17 November 2019)

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BATTLEOVERDOYEN 2.50 Punchestown at 4/5

Liam & Valerie Brennan Memorial Florida Pearl Novice Chase (Grade 2) (5yo+) 2m6f140y

Pedigree: £235,000 Chelt April 17; 8th foal; half-brother to 2m4f-3m1f jump winner Treackle Tart; dam French 1m2f Flat/2m-2m2f hurdle/chase winner, half-sister to French 2m1f chase/2m2f hurdle winner Battle Island out of useful French miler/US 1m2f stakes winner

Trainer Form: 12-72 for 17%  (10)
National average: 16% 
DSLW: 4 (11 runners)
Course: 14% (113-824)
RPR: 115                      (9)                                   
Optimum Ground: Good/soft    (10)
Optimum Distance: 2m6f       (10)
Jockey: Davy Russell         (10)
DSLW: 4 (6 rides)
Course: 138-897 for 15% (+108.63)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (49)

Main danger: Ex Patriot 15/2

Needed it at Galway, will come on for the run - Gordon Elliott

Battleoverdoyen is a big, scopey and long striding type, and won a Grade 1 novice hurdle at Naas in January before starting favourite for the Ballymore at Cheltenham but he fluffed his lines. He reappeared with a very impressive chasing debut victory at Galway and created a deep impression on his fencing bow, jumping well to score in handsome fashion, and Gordon Elliott's inmate is expected to come forward plenty from that experience. After the race his trainer told us: "It was a nice start for him at Galway. He needed the run then and has come on from it. You'd hope he's be a horse who'll be at his best over fences so hopefully he can show that."

Massive potential

Back in January Gordon Elliott said: "He's a nice horse. We really like him. He's big and is a chaser in the making. Jack Kennedy said the horse is still learning and that he didn't know what to do when he got to the front. Bar the last he jumped very well and gave his hurdles loads of light. We'll see how the ground comes up - Jack said he'd prefer it easier than it was today before any decision is made about Cheltenham. He'll probably have another run before then." So, this 6yo who was always going to be a chaser has only raced five times so open to massive improvement, four times he has won and the only time he was beaten was in the Ballymore at Cheltenham when the 3/1 favourite! We cannot be sure what happened that day but if we remove this run from his CV he looks a horse of massive potential.

Of his rivals

Any Second Now beat a huge field in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham and has only had two subsequent runs. He will have found 2m4f too short on his reappearance at Cork and will strip much fitter. Ex Patriot completed a double over fences in the spring and ran very well in last month's return to action at Cork and looks like the danger. Sayo looks to have the scope to do better.

Timeform

BATTLEOVERDOYEN was useful over hurdles, yet is every inch a chaser on looks and it was no surprise to see him make a winning debut in this sphere at Galway 3 weeks ago. He's open to significant improvement moving forward and can follow up. Ex Patriot and Sayo can give the selection most to do.

Value

Oddschecker will say that 10/11 was available but we could not get any of it and if our rationale counts for anything the Pacafi must start closer to 1/2 than 4/5. We have since watched his debut over fences six or seven times and he looked an effortless jumper and his long stride away from them equally effective.

Any Second Now (165) has a higher RPR than the Pacafi but he is 7yo with 16 runs on the clock and his trainer Ted Walsh is woefully out of form and the reason we rated Ex Patriot as a bigger danger. Walsh does strike at 10% at Punchestown but is 0-25 since April 2019. He was negative of his charge and said: "I was a bit disappointed with his run at Cork the last day. I thought he'd run better and hopefully he'll show more now." He had fallen in the race before that.

***

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

10 Battleoverdoyen   1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +5.55  S/R  80%
 9 La Cavsa Nostra   2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.75  S/R  78%
 8 Fusil Raffles     1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +3.55  S/R  75%
 7 Reserve Tank      1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +2.93  S/R  71%
 6 True Self         2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +2.02  S/R  67%
 5 Ottoman Court     2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +0.92  S/R  60%
 4 Mishriff          1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  -0.58  S/R  50%
 3 Asmund            1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  -1.38  S/R  33%
 2 Desert Peace      1.44  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R   0%
 1 Melbourne Cup     9.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R   0%

November SELECTIONS: 10  WIN: 8  LOSE: 2  S/R: 80%   PROFIT: +5.55pts

(3311111111)   FINISHED First or Second (80%)

(SSSSDDSSSS) SHORTENS in price (80%)

24 Ed'burgh Castle F 1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +4.70  S/R  58%
23 Hamish F          1.72  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.70  S/R  61%
22 Kinsman           2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +6.70  S/R  64%
21 Legends Gold      1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +5.70  S/R  62%
20 Raaeb             1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +4.98  S/R  60%
19 Finery            2.87  WIN   1.25  +1.62  +4.45  S/R  58%
18 Star Catcher      2.75  WIN   1.25  +1.50  +2.83  S/R  56%
17 Stradivarius      1.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.33  S/R  53%
16 Enrilo            1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +2.33  S/R  56%
15 Cobber Kain       4.30  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  +1.76  S/R  53%
14 Alrajaa           2.87  WIN   1.25  +1.62  +3.01  S/R  57%
13 Be Ahead          2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +1.39  S/R  54%
12 Donnybrook        1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +0.29  S/R  50%
11 Colour Image      2.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.15  S/R  45%
10 Silver Forever    2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +0.85  S/R  50%
 9 Premier Power     1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  -0.65  S/R  44%
 8 Karisoke F        1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.45  S/R  38%
 7 Enable            1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.45  S/R  43%
 6 Kahala Queen F    1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +0.55  S/R  50%
 5 Under The Stars   2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  -0.25  S/R  40%
 4 Korsdane Wood     2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  -2.00  S/R  25%
 3 Hassaad F         1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.25  S/R   0%
 2 Ballymoy          2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.25  S/R   0%
 1 So Sharp          4.00  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  -1.25  S/R   0%

October SELECTIONS: 24  WIN: 14  LOSE: 10  S/R: 58%   PROFIT: +4.70pts

(222111241161115121111123)   FINISHED First or Second (83.33%)

(SSDSSDSSSSDSDSDSSSSSSSSD) SHORTENS in price (75.00%)

***

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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