Wheelbarrows and Krill

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse is NOT, or ever claimed to be, a tipster - so who or what are we? Our home page confirms "we are a website dedicated to horse racing information and pertinent advice. Its primary function is to entertain and help readers find winners. It will remind, aid and improve the selection process by using a variety of information sources. This racing magazine will be honest and without embellishment."

It is our sincere belief bettors should find their own way and not solely rely on so-called tipsters. In any case where does one find a honest racing tipster able to show a profit regularly over a quarter, and better still one who can explain their processes? Of course, not everyone is as serious or has the time we have and that is understandable, so that is why we give a rationale so the members can look at the content first, it only takes a minute or two to digest. If the rationale is nonsense or falls below standard the advice will be exposed, generally it does not and the reason why we do not lose money from sports betting. Critically, those following the advice literally will make an incremental stake to level stakes and there is zero risk to a betting bank, we remind folk that 98% of those who bet LOSE!

So, we are NOT tipsters because we do NOT tip. Primarily the Racing Horse is a vehicle for our personal betting and consequently our primary source of income. The rationale that accompanies our personal bets and the information of other strategies and systems is what we share with members for a very small subscription (33p per day)! 

We are content with our small membership, there is no urge to pursue others with false promises/claims and certainly no desire to chase punters who will claim foul at the first hint of a losing run. For every three members we accept, we refund two of them within the first month or so, or failing that on the first negative email received, but we always thank them for their interest. When we have initial contact with a perspective member we usually/almost always offer a free trial for them to see the type of work we do, this saves a lot of time and angst further down the line.

With the above in mind we watched a fascinating webinar yesterday courtesy of Michael Wilding and Race Advisor and it prompted this blog. We enjoy and trust the work of Michael (along with Matt Bisogno), and he has been a big help to us especially in our formative years. We actually wrote a piece for RACE ADVISOR in November 2014 spelling out our core beliefs, and it attracted interest, we still have two members with us from that time. We accept it was not the best written piece but our main point/beliefs came across, we think/hope...

Michael talked about how best to use strategies with the need to focus, commit, visualise, adapt, and remove negatives within variances, something we have tried to do but not always succeeded. He then related a story whereby he introduced a strategy to 300 people and monitored their involvement, despite the strategy still being in profit 8 months later, because of downswings every single one of those 300 had disappeared and moved on to the next great thing! Our experience has been exactly the same though we do enjoy receiving return visitors which implies something.

The Pacafi has been in operation publicly since June 2011 and made incremental profits every year with just one or two losing quarters. The average punter is not interested in a small return on investment, they prefer promises of something that does not exist! The vast majority of bettors are happy to chase and lose and then blame somebody other than themselves.

Unfortunately nothing can be done for the masses and besides, they are the cannon fodder or krill of the betting food chain. They are the most important part and need to exist so that we can profit.

Of course we enjoy writing about sport and another reason for our existence, we were the number one writer for Betfair for almost five years in its formative years and our website not only gives us an opportunity to prattle but build confidence and hone our betting. We enjoyed talking to and working with ON COURSE PROFITS INTERVIEW and they allowed us to express ourselves a little further.

The webinar hosted by Michael Wilding prompted the comments above. On a number of occasions he was asked to give nominations from his strategies but returned to the example of the 300, boy, do we get that - The Racing Horse is not a tipster either!

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Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a math-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a math-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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