Haydock Racing Trends (Saturday 23 November 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

The Racing Horse has a look at two races from Haydock including the 2019 Betfair Chase.

Our Racecourse Template shows a 50% winning strike rate with favourites in non-handicap races and a level stake profit, this is in stark contrast to winning favourites in handicaps and a 29% difference!

The going is currently good to soft but expected to be soft come post time.

FAVOURITES over the last 5 years
NON-HANDICAP RACES                HANDICAP RACES
Hurdle:   24-49 for 49% (+2.04)   16-75  for 21% (-18.88)
Chase:    13-26 for 50% (+0.05)   16-74  for 22% (-25.12)
NHF:       4-7  for 57% (+2.53)    0-0   for  - 
Total:    41-82 for 50% (+4.63)   32-149 for 21% (-44.00)


2.25 Haydock: Betfair Best Odds On ITV Races Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 3m½f ITV

13/14; Aged between 5 and 7yo (93%)
13/14: Won between 1-3 times (hurdles UK) before (93%)
12/14: Carried 10st 9lbs or more (86%)
11/14: Rated between 132 and 143 (79%)
..9/14: Ran Cheltenham Festival that season (1 win Paisley Park) (64%)
..8/14: Raced within the last 4 weeks (57%)
..8/14: Came from the top 3 in the betting (57%)
..8/14: Returned 7/1 or shorter (57%)
..7/14: Placed favourites (50%)
..6/14: French bred (43%)
..6/14: Won last time out (43%)
..5/14: Raced at Haydock before (36%)
..3/14: Winning favourites (1 joint) (21%)
..3/14: Trained by David Pipe (21%)
..2/14: Trained by Nick Williams (14%)

Paisley Park won the race in 2018
Sam Spinner won the race in 2017
215m: Longest traveller for Anthony Honeyball (ACEY MILAN)
142: Top Rated (UMBRIGADO)
3: David Pipe winners in past 10 runnings. (UMBRIGADO)
22%: Paul Nicholls strike rate in early season (HIGHLAND HUNTER)
21%: Anthony Honeyball strike rate with staying hurdlers (ACEY MILAN)

Timeform

A race that always throws up a good one and TEDHAM looks a smart stayer in the making for Jonjo O'Neill. He shaped well on the back of a wind operation on his reappearance at Cheltenham and remains on a good mark with this longer trip sure to suit. Highland Hunter is very interesting from a potentially good mark starting out for Paul Nicholls. Stoney Mountain is another to consider.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: Eight And Bob 12/1 (Ladbrokes)  2nd: Highland Hunter 17/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power & Unibet)  3rd: Lisnagar Oscar 15/2 (William Hill & BetVictor)  4th: Acey Milan 14/1 (general).

Tedham looks lay material if much shorter than 9/2...

Eight And Bob (Robbie Power) goes for the 3 mile handicap hurdle. He is in good shape and this race has been the plan for a while. He runs here off the back of a win in a handicap hurdle at Gowran last month and this similar trip and the ground should be ideal - Willie Mullins

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3.00 Haydock: Betfair Chase (Grade 1) 3m1f125y ITV

12/14: Won over at least 3m (fences) previously (86%)
11/14: Raced within the last 4 weeks (79%)
11/14: Won by an Irish (3) or French (8) bred horse (79%)
11/14: Placed in the top three in their last race (79%)
11/14: Won Grade One chase previously (79%)
10/14: Raced at Haydock previously (71%)
10/14: Officially rating of 168 or higher (71%)
..9/14: Favourites placed (64%)
..8/14: Aged 8yo or older (57%)
..7/14: Raced at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall last time out (50%)
..7/14: Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less (50%)
..7/14: Won by a previous winner of the race (50%)
..6/14: Winning favourites (43%)
..5/14: Won their latest race (36%)
..4/14: Raced at Aintree last time out (29%)

Bristol De Mai has won the last two runnings
The average winning price in the last 14 runnings is 11/2
Paul Nicholls won this race in 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012 & 2014
Nigel Twiston-Davies won this race in 2010, 2017 and 2018
Colin Tizzard won this race in 2013, 2015 and 2016

RECENT WINNERS
2018: BRISTOL DE MAI (13/2)
2017: BRISTOL DE MAI (11/10f)
2016: CUE CARD (15/8f)
2015: CUE CARD (7/4)
2014: SILVINIACO CONTI (10/3)
2013: CUE CARD (9/1)
2012: SILVINIACO CONTI (7/4)
2011: KAUTO STAR (6/1)
2010: IMPERIAL COMMANDER (10/11f)
2009: KAUTO STAR (4/6f)
2008: SNOOPY LOOPY (33/1)
2007: KAUTO STAR (4/5f)
2006: KAUTO STAR (11/10f)
2005: KINGSCLIFF (8/1)

Timeform

LOSTINTRANSLATION can cement his status as one of the most exciting chasers in training with victory over the hat-trick seeking Bristol de Mai. Colin Tizzard's charge created an excellent impression when making a triumphant return at Carlisle and seems sure to improve further granted this sort of test. A big run from the Ryanair-winner Frodon wouldn't be surprising, either.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: BRISTOL DE MAI 5/4 (SkyBet & William Hill)  2nd: Lostintranslation 13/8 (Bet365, William Hill & Coral)

Bristol De Mai needs a stiff test and stays 3¼m, he acts on heavy going though is prone to mistakes. Trainer Nigel Twiston- Davies told us: "Bristol De Mai, is one of the best horses in the country but he is very fragile and keeping him 100 per cent right is the problem." Twiston-Davies believes his horse has the stronger credentials of the two market leaders, despite Lostintranslation's sparkling return to action at Carlisle at the start of the month. He said: "Talk is cheap and horses like Lostintranslation have to prove it. We trained the runner-up at Carlisle in Count Meribel and I would like to think that Bristol De Mai is entitled to be a good bit better horse than him as far as ratings and everything else goes."

Despite just four runners it's going to be a great race - interesting that both Frodon and Lostintranslation like to lead, will that set it up for Bristol?

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One Response to Haydock Racing Trends (Saturday 23 November 2019)

  1. Hugh Stedham says:

    I did lost in Translation as a saver @ 2/1 so broke even.
    Very successful Pacifis this month

    Best regards

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