Pacafi (22 November 2019)

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KING RAGNAR 4.00 Newcastle at 5/4

Ladbrokes Where The Nation Plays Novice Stakes (Class 5) (2yo) 6f

Pedigree: 14,000gns F, £25,000 Y, £60,000 2yo; 5th foal; half-brother to winners Pavillon (6f 2yo/1m AW; RPR 90) and Dutch S (6f 2yo; 81); dam 7f 2yo winner (89), half-sister to useful winners Lady High Havens (7f 2yo), Middlemarch (7f-1m2f) & Noble Gent (7f/1m2f)

Trainer Form: 9-45 for 20%   (10)
National average: 19% 
DSLW: 7 (10 runners)
Course: 22% (26-116)
RPR: 86                      (10)                                   
Optimum Ground: Standard     (10)
Optimum Distance: 6f         (10)
Jockey: Jack Mitchell        (10)
DSLW: 5 (3 rides)
Course: 14-106 for 13%

The Racing Horse Composite:  (50)

Main danger: FROZEN OCEAN 9/4

Backed to beat Ottoman Court last time

King Ragnar is fancied to make it third-time lucky having found only one too good in both starts to date. He was sent off favourite on both occasions but last time came up against a very good sort in a better race than this. We found it interesting that today's Pacafi was backed to beat our previous bet Ottoman Court despite an apparent class gap so the volume of money must be noted.

Drop in grade

Ottoman Court now has an OR of 90 and a RPR of 91 and had more experience than King Ragnar. That last race was in a Class 4 Novice for 2yos and tomorrow is a Class 5 Novice and instead of running against a more experienced rival takes on a newbie. Of course Frozen Ocean is entitled to run well and even win but would have to run to a RPR of 90 plus on debut. The maths are in our favour.

 Of his rivals

Lairig Ghru has placed in his two runs so far but probably needs to improve to win a race like this. There are several newcomers worth noting including Godolphin’s Frozen Ocean a 260,000 euro buy who looks the main danger and is a half-brother to two winners. Indian Road is by Invincible Spirit out of a Group 3 winner and should also win races and so should Anjah who has an appealing pedigree.

Timeform 

FROZEN OCEAN fetched €260,000 as a foal and is a half-brother to 3 winners, so he could easily be up to the task on debut for powerful connections, King Ragnar sets a pretty good standard following a brace of runner-up efforts, while we haven't yet seen the best of Slingshot, either.

Value

So what is perceived value? The answer is we do not know, we do not know how good Frozen Ocean is but we do know that one will have to be decent to win and not only win but to win on debut. In 10 races like this we would take an RPR of close to 90 against a newcomer every time, and win more times than not and the 5/4 in these circumstances looks attractive. We believe he was unlucky to run into the useful Ottoman Court at Chelmsford last time but still ran well to be clear of the third. Roger Varian's youngster is fancied to make it third time lucky. We also have a jockey and draw advantage albeit slight and experience at this time of the year must help. Finally our Pacafi hold the form standard so whoever beats us will have to very good.

Finally...

Should King Ragnar win it will give us 10 winners on the trot and that is asking a lot. Even at favourite prices to find 10 consecutive winners is quite a feat and one cannot fluke these numbers, there has to be a rationale and a reason behind them and our suggestion tomorrow is we have an edge at the price!

***

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

14 Buveur D'Air      1.36
13 Bristol De Mai    2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +6.40  S/R  77%
12 King Ragnar       2.37  WIN   1.00  +1.37  +7.40  S/R  83%
11 Mons Star R4      1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.48  +6.03  S/R  82%
10 Battleoverdoyen   1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +5.55  S/R  80%
 9 La Cavsa Nostra   2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.75  S/R  78%
 8 Fusil Raffles     1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +3.55  S/R  75%
 7 Reserve Tank      1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +2.93  S/R  71%
 6 True Self         2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +2.02  S/R  67%
 5 Ottoman Court     2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +0.92  S/R  60%
 4 Mishriff          1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  -0.58  S/R  50%
 3 Asmund            1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  -1.38  S/R  33%
 2 Desert Peace      1.44  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R   0%
 1 Melbourne Cup     9.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R   0%

November SELECTIONS: 13  WIN: 10  LOSE: 3  S/R: 77%   PROFIT: +6.40pts

(3311111111112)   FINISHED First or Second (83.33%)

(SSSSDDSSSSSSS) SHORTENS in price (84.62%)

24 Ed'burgh Castle   1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +4.70  S/R  58%
23 Hamish F          1.72  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.70  S/R  61%
22 Kinsman           2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +6.70  S/R  64%
21 Legends Gold      1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +5.70  S/R  62%
20 Raaeb             1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +4.98  S/R  60%
19 Finery            2.87  WIN   1.25  +1.62  +4.45  S/R  58%
18 Star Catcher      2.75  WIN   1.25  +1.50  +2.83  S/R  56%
17 Stradivarius      1.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.33  S/R  53%
16 Enrilo            1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +2.33  S/R  56%
15 Cobber Kain       4.30  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  +1.76  S/R  53%
14 Alrajaa           2.87  WIN   1.25  +1.62  +3.01  S/R  57%
13 Be Ahead          2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +1.39  S/R  54%
12 Donnybrook        1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +0.29  S/R  50%
11 Colour Image      2.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.15  S/R  45%
10 Silver Forever    2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +0.85  S/R  50%
 9 Premier Power     1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  -0.65  S/R  44%
 8 Karisoke          1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.45  S/R  38%
 7 Enable            1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.45  S/R  43%
 6 Kahala Queen      1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +0.55  S/R  50%
 5 Under The Stars   2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  -0.25  S/R  40%
 4 Korsdane Wood     2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  -2.00  S/R  25%
 3 Hassaad           1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.25  S/R   0%
 2 Ballymoy          2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.25  S/R   0%
 1 So Sharp          4.00  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  -1.25  S/R   0%

October SELECTIONS: 24  WIN: 14  LOSE: 10  S/R: 58%   PROFIT: +4.70pts

(222111241161115121111123)   FINISHED First or Second (83.33%)

(SSDSSDSSSSDSDSDSSSSSSSSD) SHORTENS in price (75.00%)

***

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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