Newbury Racing (Friday 29 November 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

 The Racing Horse offers powerful racing trends in tandem with perceptive betting advice for Newbury races on Friday. To aid the process we offer valuable information in the shape of our unique Racecourse Templates, where we look at the performance of the different disciplines in both handicap and non-handicap National Hunt races. This trilateral approach offers absolute relevance and because of its importance/weight this feature is now part of the service we offer our members and we will also provide news of the latest movers and shakers to give our members every chance of making a profit for these meetings!

The first of two superb days of National Hunt racing kicks off their most-high profile meeting of the season – The Ladbrokes Winter Carnival. Winners on this day have included Santini, Clan des Obeaux, Unowhatimeanharry and Beer Goggles, who followed in the footsteps of Big Buck’s, Inglis Drever and Thistlecrack in landing the Grade 2 Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle.The going is expected to be soft.

NEWBURY RACECOURSE TEMPLATE

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

Hurdle:   35-74  for 47%  (+0.70)   22-66  for 33%  (+2.16)
Chase:    10-28  for 36%  (-8.68)   23-89  for 26% (-12.29)
NHF:       8-26  for 31%  (-4.67)    0-0   for  - 
Total:    53-128 for 41% (-12.64)   45-155 for 29% (-10.13)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Newbury 2018/19
Nicky Henderson: 8 wins from 41 for 20%  (-2.12)
Philip Hobbs:    6 wins from 37 for 16% (+30.12)
Paul Nicholls:   5 wins from 20 for 25% (+13.07)
Colin Tizzard:   5 wins from 43 for 12% (-12.41)
Warren Greatrex: 4 wins from 16 for 25%  (+1.62)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Newbury 2018/19
Richard Johnson:  8 wins from 34 for 24% (+14.25)
Barry Gerraghty:  5 wins from 10 for 50%  (+8.75)
Tom Scudamore:    5 wins from 27 for 19%  (+7.25)
Harry Cobden:     4 wins from 29 for 14% (-18.84)
Wayne Hutchinson: 4 wins from 36 for 11% (-21.25)

1.50: Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Chase (Class 2) 2m3f187y ITV4

12/12: Won between 1-3 times over fences (100%)
11/12: Returned 9/1 or shorter (92%)
10/12: Aged 9yo or younger (83%)
10/12: Not win last time out (83%)
10/12: Carried 10st 11lbs or more in weight (83%)
..9/12: Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before (75%)
..7/12: Rated between 131 and 140 (58%)
..7/12: Placed in the top 4 last time out (58%)
..7/12: Raced in the last 6 weeks (58%)
..2/12: Trained by Alan King(17%)
..2/12: Trained by Colin Tizzard (17%)
..0/12: Winning favourites (0%)

Oldgrangewood (6/1) won this race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1
£134.27: Matt Sheppard profit to £1 with one runner on card (chases) (THE BAY BIRCH)
21%: Nicky Henderson strike rate here since start of 2014/15 season (O O SEVEN & WENYERREADYFREDDIE)
21%: Richard Johnson strike rate here (GALA BALL)
26%: Winning favourites in handicap chases 23-89 (-12.29)

Timeform

A case can be made for plenty of these but the most persuasive one is for KALASHNIKOV, who returned with a promising second in Aintree's Old Roan Chase and can go one better here off the same mark. Recent C&D winner Azzerti rates a big threat with his fitness proven, while both Spiritofthegames and the returning Glen Forsa are highly respected too in a very useful handicap.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: KALASHNIKOV 10/3 (2nd)  2nd: Oldgrangewood 10/1 (WINNER)  3rd: Glen Forsa 10/1 (3rd)

Exacta: £18.60 & CSF: £17.25 Tricast: £101.61 & Trifecta: £223.80

Kalashnikov has long promised to make into a high-class chaser and he returned after 7 months off with excellent second in Old Roan Chase at Aintree last month. More to come so the one to beat off same mark here. Must run a place at the very least.

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2.25: Ladbrokes Novices’ Chase (Registered As The Berkshire Novices’ Chase) (Grade 2) 2m3f187y ITV4

11/12: Aged 5yo or older (92%)
11/12: Returned 7/2 or shorter (92%)
10/12: Finished in the top 3 last time out (83%)
..9/12: Favourites placed in the top 2 (75%)
..9/12: Ran in the last 7 weeks (75%)
..7/12: Yet to win over fences (58%)
..7/12: Aged 5 or 6yo (58%)
..5/12: Ran at Cheltenham last time out (42%)
..5/12: Winning favourites (42%)
..3/12: Trained by Nicky Henderson (25%)
..2/12: Ridden by Barry Geraghty (17%)
..2/12: Trained by Paul Nicholls (17%)

The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/2
£71.47: Jeremy Scott profit to £1 with one runner on card (chases) (DASHEL DRASHER)
36%: Winning favourites in non-handicap chases 10-28 (-8.68)

Timeform 

A dual Grade 1 winner as a novice hurdler, CHAMP made the perfect start to his chasing career over further here 3 weeks ago, despite jumping slightly left. He ultimately scored decisively from Dashel Drasher. He can take the rise in class in his stride. Black Op was impressive on his return at Stratford and is feared, ahead of aforementioned Dashel Drasher, who looks sure to give a good account.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: CHAMP 10/11 (WINNER)  2nd: BLACK OP 9/2 (2nd)

Exacta: £3.90 & CSF: £5.08

Champ is a dual Grade 1 novice hurdle winner last term, who scored with a good bit in hand on chasing bow here 3 weeks ago, jumping slightly left but readily holding Dashel Drasher. He is clearly an exciting prospect but the price is now far too short. We had considered Champ a Pacafi but in this field was looking for 6/4 or nearby. We considered Vision Des Flos for second place (highest rated - 155) at prices close to 7/1 and has every right to be in the mix.

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3.00: Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) 3m52y ITV4

14/17: Grade One winner over hurdles (82%)
14/17: Won over at least 3m (hurdles) before (82%)
12/17: Won on seasonal reappearance (71%)
12/17: Winning distance – 3 lengths or more (71%)
12/17: Aged between 7-9yo (71%)
12/17: Placed favourites (71%)
12/17: Won a hurdles race at Newbury before (71%)
11/17: Ran at Aintree (7) or Cheltenham (4) last time out (65%)
10/17: Winning favourites (59%)
..9/17: Returned 15/8 or shorter (53%)
..5/10: Won by trainer Paul Nicholls (50%)
..8/17: French bred (47%)
..8/17: Won last time out (47%)
..7/17: Returned odds-on in the betting (41%)
..7/17: Went onto win season’s World Hurdle (41%)
..7/17: Won by a previous winner of the race (41%)

Unowhatimeanharry won the race in 2016 & 2018
Beer Goggles won the race in 2017
Thistlecrack won the race in 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1
20%: Harry Fry 2 winners from 10 runnings. (UNOWHATIMEANHARRY)
21%: Richard Johnson strike rate here (BEER GOGGLES)
41%: Aidan Coleman strike rate on hurdling favourites (PAISLEY PARK)
47%: Winning favourites in non-handicap hurdles 35-74 (+0.70)

Timeform 

PAISLEY PARK makes his eagerly-awaited return and is impossible to oppose after a scintillating campaign last season when he went unbeaten and signed off with a superb Stayers' Hurdle win at Cheltenham. The Worlds End and Unowhatimeanharry have already proved their fitness this term after fighting out a Grade 2 at Wetherby and can chase home Emma Lavelle's champion stayer in that order. Once we see Paisley Park in the paddock we will know for sure but then the 4/6 will probably be gone.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: PAISLEY PARK 4/6 (WINNER)  2nd: The Worlds End 6/1 (3rd)

2 wins from her last 10 runners (4/1 and 6/1) show trainer Emma Lavelle in form and this augurs well for the debut of Paisley Park. He dominated this division during unbeaten campaign last season, with the second of his two Grade 1 wins gained in Stayers' Hurdle at Cheltenham Festival over 3m on good to soft in March. Today's slower ground will not be a problem, and his claims are obvious. Once again, is the 4/6 value for his seasonal debut, maybe not and the reason we could not nominate as a Pacafi. That said he is a massive 16lbs clear of main rival The Worlds End. The latter is nominated solely on account of having a run already whilst Thistlecrack has not.

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3.35: Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) 3m52y ITV4

11/12: Placed 5th or better last time out (92%)
11/12: Raced in the last 4 weeks (92%)
11/12: Carried 10st 10lbs or more in weight (92%)
10/12: Raced at Cheltenham (5), Wincanton (3) or Wetherby (2) last time (83%)
10/12: Aged 5 or 6yo (83%)
..9/12: Returned 9/1 or shorter (75%)
..8/12: Placed favourites (67%)
..8/12: Finished in the top 3 last time out (67%)
..8/12: Irish-bred winners (67%)
..7/12: Won just 1-2 times over hurdles (58%)
..7/12: Yet to win over 3m (or further) over hurdles (58%)
..5/12: Winning favourites (42%)
..5/12: Ran at Cheltenham last time out (42%)
..3/12: Trained by Philip Hobbs (25%)
..2/12: Ridden by Richard Johnson (17%)

Viva Le Roi won this race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
£15.06: Philip Hobbs profit to £1 with hurdling favourites (DOLPHIN SQUARE)
£19.90: Nick Williams profit to £1 when one runner on card (hurdles) (ONE FOR THE TEAM)
£22.95: Philip Hobbs profit to £1 with hurdlers running after a break (SAMBURU SHUJAA)
33%: Winning favourites in handicap hurdles 22-66 (+2.16)

Timeform

POTTERS HEDGER is a consistent type who stays well, so he might offer a bit of value in an open race. Anytime Will Do and One For The Team are that bit less exposed and promise to be suited by a test of stamina here, so they make most appeal of the others.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: CAPTAIN TOMMY 14/1  2nd: Dolphin Square 9/2 (4th)  3rd: One For The Team 13/2 (2nd) 

Captain Tommy was runner-up in a Perth Listed novice contest on final start last season and far from disgraced when making handicap debut at Cheltenham recently, beaten about 11l in fourth after being kept wide throughout and hanging in the closing stages over 3m on heavy ground. This big field is something new for him but he still has untapped potential though needs improvement from this mark hence the attractive price.

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