Pentland Hills to land Unibet International Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m1f ITV4

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse is excited about Saturday as we go racing to Cheltenham to watch our horse Pentland Hills make if four from four for his army of owners and trainer Nicky Henderson. We measure our horse against the trends and note many of the key elements are satisfied and in particular three of the top four.

* denotes fitting the trends

PENTLAND HILLS entry for the 2019 JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE

3.05 Cheltenham: Unibet International Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m1f ITV4

17/17: Raced over hurdles at Cheltenham previously (100%) *
15/17: Placed in top 3 in latest race (88%) *
15/17: Raced within last 6 weeks (88%)
14/17: Won over 2m1f+ (hurdles) previously (82%) *
14/17: Won 4 or more times over hurdles previously (82%)
13/17: Won by a horse aged 7yo or younger (76%) *
13/17: Ran in Champion Hurdle later that season (5 placed) (76%) *
12/17: Favourites placed (71%) *
11/17: Won latest race (65%) *
11/17: Winning favourites (1 joint) (65%) *
11/17: Priced 5/2 or shorter (65%) *
11/17: Won over hurdles at Cheltenham previously (65%) *
..9/17: Won by a horse aged either 4 or 5yo (53%) *
..9/17: Rated 162 or higher (53%)
..7/17: Winning distance:  4+ lengths (41%)
..6/17: Won Greatwood Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out (35%)
..4/17: Won by a French-bred horse (24%)
..4/17: Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson (24%)
..4/17: Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (24%)
..4/17: Trained by Nicky Henderson (24%) *
..3/17: Trained by Philip Hobbs (18%)
..3/17: Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies (18%)
..3/17: Trained by Paul Nicholls (18%)
..3/17: Won Betfair Hurdle last time out (18%)
..3/17: Won by Irish-trained horse (18%)
..1/17: Won Champion Hurdle later that season (Rooster Booster 2002) (6%) *

31%: Nicky Henderson strike rate with hurdlers up to 2m 2f (PENTLAND HILLS & CALL ME LORD)

Timeform

CALL ME LORD has a fitness edge over chief-form rivals Pentland Hills and Ch'tibello, and in receipt of weight from the pair, this could be the time to catch him. Pentland Hills enjoyed a faultless juvenile campaign and is prominent in the Champion Hurdle betting so he has to be accorded respect.

Optimum ground?

As we go to post Pentland Hills is trading as the 2/1 favourite but we have not bet just yet. We need to know the state of the ground but soft ground would not be a huge concern for us. His sire Motivator won three of his seven races on soft ground (his sire Montjeu excelled on soft to heavy) and his dam the German-bred Elle Gallante was campaigned on soft to heavy ground and one of her two wins was on soft. She has also produced the 8yo Camlann and his preference is soft to heavy. We fully expect the trainer to make nervous comments about the ground but if Pentland Hills is relatively fit he must win this Grade 2 with a kind trip!

Of his rivals

We rather the trainer had not entered the fit stablemate and 6yo Call Me Lord, which in effect means we do not only have to beat rival trainers, we have to beat another from the same stable, but the main rival looks to be the more experienced 8yo Ch'tibello for Dan Skelton. That one has the same 254 day break to overcome but has won on heavy ground but these are the type of horses we have to beat this season if we want to win the Champion Hurdle in March.

The Owners Group

The Racing Horse takes this opportunity to congratulate the fine work and modus operandi of Owners Group who bring racing to those who can only dream about being a part owner of a fabulous race horse. Their detail, honesty and transparency keeps thousands of owners informed but for us and most importantly, their commitment to the welfare of the individual horse is to be highly commended. Even though we bet professionally this is always our first concern. On a personal note we thank them for giving the opportunity to part-own a double Grade 1 winner and the JCB Triumph Hurdle in particular. With luck we hope to be at Cheltenham next year for the Champion Hurdle but first the Unibet International Hurdle.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: PENTLAND HILLS 9/4  2nd: Ch'tibello 8/1 (3rd)  3rd: Call Me Lord 7/2 (WINNER)

***

  Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

~

The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *