Racing Trends for Cheltenham (Saturday 14 December 2019)

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The Racing Horse looks at two more races from Cheltenham and will provide a Racecourse Template that you can find here: 


1.55: Caspian Caviar Gold Gup (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) 2m5f ITV4

17/17: Aged 8yo or younger (100%)
15/17: Ran within the last 5 weeks (88%)
14/17: Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before (82%)
13/17: Won between 2-4 times over fences before (76%)
13/17: Placed in the top 3 last time out (76%)
13/17: Ran at the Cheltenham Festival later that season (76%)
12/17: Raced at Cheltenham (fences) before (5 won) (71%)
12/17: Returned 9/1 or shorter (71%)
11/17: Officially rated 142 or higher (65%)
11/17: Aged 6 or 7yo (65%)
10/17: Unplaced favourites (59%)
10/17: French bred (59%)
..5/10: Trained by Paul Nicholls (50%)
..8/17: Carried 10st 13lbs or more (47%)
..7/17: Ran at Cheltenham last time out (41%)
..7/17: Ran in BetVictor (Nov) Gold Cup last time out (1 won) (41%)
..5/17: Finished in top 5 in Bet Victor Gold Cup last time out (29%)
..4/17: Won last time out (24%)
..3/17: Trained by Nicky Henderson (18%)
..2/17: Went to an Irish-trained horse (12%)
..1/17: Winning favourites (6%)

The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 10/1

19%: Handicap Chase favourites provide 22-115 for 19% (-30.38)

£37.13: Henry Oliver profit to £1 with one runner on card (chases) (GENEROUS DAY)
21%: Dan Skelton s/r chasers running 19f to 3m (NOT THAT FUISSE & SPIRITOFTHEGAMES)


CEPAGE chased home Frodon in this 12 months ago and is taken to go one better now with the form of his Aintree reappearance second having been boosted by the third winning a competitive handicap at Newbury since. Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in this race and his Secret Investor and Brelan D'As have solid claims, while Robin des Foret is also respected for Willie Mullins.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: CLONDAW CASTLE 9/1  2nd: Cepage 13/2  3rd: Secret Investor 7/1

Clondaw Castle is a well-made gelding, a winning hurdler and a smart chaser. He won a novice at Leicester and a novice handicap at Huntingdon (by 12 lengths from Peppay Le Pugh) in 2018/19. Then off 7 months, well-backed 4/1, respectable ½-length second of 12 to Diego du Charmil in Listed handicap at Ascot last time, keeping on 10 lengths down when left every chance last. Raced around 2m, acts on soft and good to firm going AND usually travels strongly. The 9/1 looks value...


2.30: Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) 3m ITV4

15/15: Finished 1 or 2 last time out (100%)
14/15: Raced within the last 6 weeks (93%)
..9/10: Returned 3/1 or shorter (90%)
13/15: Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before (87%)
13/15: Returned 4/1 or shorter (87%)
13/15: Aged 6yo or younger (87%)
13/15: Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or more (87%)
12/15: Placed favourites (80%)
12/15: Ran in the Albert Bartlett (3 won) at the Cheltenham Festival (80%)
10/15: Winning favourite (1 co, 1 joint) (67%)
..9/15: Ran at Cheltenham last time out (60%)
..9/15: Returned 2/1 or shorter (60%)
..9/15: Won last time out (60%)
..9/15: Went onto finish top 4 in Cheltenham Festival race that season (60%)
..9/15: Irish bred (60%)
..8/15: Won at Cheltenham before (53%)
..8/15: Won over 3m (hurdles) before (53%)
..2/15: Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (13%)
..2/15: Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (13%)

42%: Novice Hurdlers favourites provide 47 winners from 111 for 42% (+3.47)

27%: Nicky Henderson strike rate in early season (VALTOR & IGOR)
42%: Paddy Brennan strike rate on hurdling favourites (CHAMPAGNE WELL)


This has a very open look to it, but MOSSY FEN defends an unbeaten record under Rules and is a useful stayer in the making, so he gets the nod. Valtor saw off Redford Road back hurdling at Ascot last month and is taken to confirm that form despite these revised terms as his chase ability offers hope he can do better still.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: CHAMPAGNE WELL 4/1 (2nd)  2nd: Mossy Fen 5/1  3rd: Igor 5/1

This bumper winner didn't need to improve to deservedly open his hurdles account on return at this venue in October (21f). Coped well with the mud when second in the Hyde Novices' Hurdle back here. Trainer in fine form and looks certain to go close.


  Today's Pacafi: click here

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