BOXING DAY at KEMPTON

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For Boxing Day we will provide all the information our members need to secure a profit, which will include our RACECOURSE TEMPLATE, RACING TRENDS and BETTING ADVICE.

KEMPTON RACECOURSE TEMPLATE

12.50: Get Your £1 Ladbrokes Free Bet Today Novices' Hurdle (Class 2) 2m

12/12: Raced in the last 8 weeks (100%)
11/12: Aged 4 or 5yo (92%)
10/12: Favourites placed in the top 3 (83%)
10/12: Returned 7/2 or shorter (83%)
..9/12: Won a NH Flat race before (75%)
..9/12: Winning distance 3 lengths or more (75%)
..7/12: Won just once over hurdles before (58%)
..7/12: Winning favourites (58%)
....4/8: Trained by Nicky Henderson (50%)
..3/12: Ridden by Richard Johnson (25%)
..2/12: Ridden by Barry Geraghty (17%)

Mister Fisher (7/2) won the race 12 months ago

Timeform

ECCO presumably got stuck in the mud at Cheltenham last time and is worth another chance as he'd been impressive on his first 2 outings this term. Vegas Blue has won both bumper starts, including a listed event, and rates a possible big threat for a yard with a good record in this race. Her stablemate Fred and Colin Tizzard's Getaway Fred are others who should have a say in an interesting opener.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: VEGAS BLUE 2/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes & Coral)  2nd: Getaway Fred 4/1 (general)  3rd: Ecco 9/2 (SkyBet)

Vegas Blue is 2-2 in bumpers, winning 2m mares' events at Bangor (good) in May and Huntingdon (Listed; good to soft) this month. This is a promising youngster and trainer has won four of the last eight runnings. Not sure the 2/1 represents value but the ground will not be a problem.

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1.20: 32Red.com Chase (A Novices' Limited Handicap) Chase (Class 3) 2m4f110y ITV

15/15: Aged 7yo or younger (100%)
14/15: Won between 0-1 times over fences in the UK (93%)
13/15: Raced within the last 5 weeks (87%)
10/15: Placed 1 or 2 last time out (67%)
..8/15: Placed favourites (1 joint) (60%)
..8/15: Officially rated between 119 and 125 (60%)
..7/15: Carried 11st 6lbs or more (47%)
..6/15: Winning distance – 6 lengths or more (40%)
..6/15: Winning favourites (1 joint) (40%)
..5/15: Won by a French bred horse (33%)
..5/15: Trained by Nicky Henderson (33%)
..4/15: Won last time out (27%)
..3/15: Ridden by Richard Johnson (33%)
..2/15:Raced at Kempton last time out (13%)

Glen Forsa (7/1) won the race 12 months ago
Harry Whittington: 1-12 (8%) (Simply The Betts)
Mick Channon: Since a win = 6 runs and 50 days

Timeform

ROLL AGAIN did it readily from the front at Ludlow last week and can cope with the drop back in trip and provide in-form Venetia Williams with another winner. Hold The Note has a similarly progressive profile to Glen Forsa, who won this race in the same colours last year, and heads the dangers along with Doctor Dex and Simply The Betts.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: DOCTOR DEX 9/1 (Betfair & Paddy Power)  2nd: Solomon Grey 14/1 (Boylesports)  3rd: Fidux 12/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power & BetVictor)

Doctor Dex is a fairly useful 19f winner over hurdles. Immediately reached a level above when making a winning chase debut at Ascot on return and good second over course and distance since. Soft ground is not his optimum conditions but if he acts on it then 9/1 looks real value!

Tom George, trainer: "He's graduated very nicely from hurdles to fences but it just didn't go right for him last time at Kempton, where he got too far back behind and was never very happy. I think we'll look to ride him a bit more positively this time and that should see him to better effect."

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1.55: 32RedKauto Star Novices´ Chase (In memory of Nigel Clark) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m ITV

16/16: Raced within the last 6 weeks (100%)
15/16: Placed in the top two last time out (94%)
12/16: Won last time out (75%)
12/16:French (7) or Irish (5) bred (75%)
11/16: Winning distance – 3 lengths or more (69%)
11/16: Aged 6yo or younger (69%)
11/16: Won at least 2 times over fences in the UK (69%)
10/16: Ran in that season’s RSA Chase (no winners) (63%)
10/16: Returned 5/2 or shorter (63%)
..9/16: Aged 6yo (56%)
..8/16: Placed favourites (50%)
..8/16: Won (chase) over at least 3m before (50%)
..8/16: Raced at Newbury last time out (50%)
..7/16: Winning favourites (44%)
..3/16: Trained by Paul Nicholls (19%)
..2/16: Trained by David Pipe (13%)
..2/16: Ridden by Tom Scudamore (13%)
..2/16: Raced at Cheltenham last time out (13%)
..1/16: French trained (6%)
..1/16: Ran in Cheltenham Gold Cup (One win – Coneygree 2015) (6%)

La Bague Au Roi (8/1) won the race 12 months ago

Timeform

SLATE HOUSE showed he's over his fall in the BetVictor when conceding weight to a couple of useful types at Huntingdon and can continue his excellent start to this season by bagging this Grade 1 prize. The unbeaten Danny Whizzbang may provide the main threat ahead of Tom George's Black Op.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: MASTER TOMMYTUCKER 3/1 (general)  2nd: Slate House 3/1 (Betfair & Paddy Power)

Won both starts over hurdles in spring 2018. Off for over a year after a fall on chase bow but set to make up for lost time judged on maiden win here last month. First-time tongue tie added to hood. This course winner chosen by Harry Cobden and clearly the one to beat.

Paul Nicholls, trainer: "Master Tommytucker has a lot of class but he did win over two miles and five furlongs at Exeter as a novice hurdler."

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2.30: Unibet Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m ITV

15/17: Raced within the last 6 weeks (88%)
15/17: Won at least 4 times over hurdles before (88%)
14/17: Placed favourites (82%)
13/17: Returned 11/4 or shorter (76%)
11/17: Ran in Champion Hurdle (Faughan & Buveur D’Air winners) (65%)
10/17: Won last time out (59%)
..9/17: Winning favourites (53%)
..9/17: Finished in top 5 in Champion Hurdle that season (53%)
..8/17: Irish trained (47%)
..8/17: Ran in Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Newcastle) last time out (47%)
..8/17: Ran over hurdles at Kempton before (47%)
..6/17: French bred (35%)
..6/17: Trained by Nicky Henderson (35%)
..4/17: Trained by Noel Meade (24%)
..2/17: Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (12%)
..2/17: Trained by Willie Mullins (12%)

Verdana Blue (11/2) won the race 12 months ago

Timeform

Nicky Henderson has taken this race 6 times since 2011 and FUSIL RAFFLES may be capable of enhancing that already excellent record. Last year's winner Verdana Blue will be a major threat if the ground dries out. The ultra-consistent Silver Streak is likely to give it his all again, while Epatante is yet another strong contender for her yard on the back of an impressive win at Newbury.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: FUSIL RAFFLES 2/1 (general)  2nd: Getaway Trump 9/1 (William Hill, Betfair & Paddy Power)  3rd: Verdana Blue 5/1 (SkyBet, Betfair & Paddy Power)

Held in high regard by trainer and just behind Pentland Hills in the pecking order. Winner of Adonis over course and distance on British debut in February. Notched a Grade 1 win at Punchestown in May and made it 3-3 for this yard when taking Wincanton Grade 2 on return. Very hard to beat.

Nicky Henderson, trainer: "Fusil Raffles has come on tonnes for the Elite Hurdle. All of ours needed a run then and he needed it badly, but luckily we got away with it. He's improved dramatically since and this has always been the plan."

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3.05: 32Red King George VI Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m ITV

16/17: Raced within the last 5 weeks (94%)
15/17: Won a Grade One chase before (88%)
15/17: Returned 9/2 or shorter (88%)
15/17: Finished in the top three last time out (88%)
15/17: French (11) or Irish bred (4) (88%)
14/17: Placed favourites (82%)
14/17: Won over 3m or further (fences) before (82%)
13/17: Officially rated 169 or higher (76%)
13/17: Aged 8yo or younger (76%)
11/17: Winning favourites (65%)
11/17: Won last time out (65%)
10/17: Won a race over fences at Kempton before (59%)
10/17: Ran in Betfair Chase (Haydock) last time out (59%)
....5/9: Won by Colin Tizzard and Nicky Henderson (56%)
..8/17: Trained by Paul Nicholls (10 times in all) (47%)
..7/17: Won by a previous winner of the race (41%)
..
2/17: Won by Irish-based yard (only 3 in the last 33 runnings) (12%)

The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 4/1

RECENT WINNERS

2018: Clan Des Obeaux (12/1)
2017: Might Bite (6/4f)
2016: Thistlecrack (11/10f)
2015: Cue Card (9/2)
2014: Silviniaco Conti (15/8f)
2013: Silviniaco Conti (7/2)
2012: Long Run (15/8f)
2011: Kauto Star (3/1)
2010: Long Run (9/2)
2009: Kauto Star (8/13f)
2008: Kauto Star (10/11f)
2007: Kauto Star (4/6f)
2006: Kauto Star (8/13f)
2005: Kicking King (11/8f)
2004: Kicking King (3/1f)
2003: Edredon Bleu (25/1)
2002: Best Mate (11/8f)

The 2005 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

Timeform

The manner in which CYRNAME has jumped and travelled from the front when an impressive winner over 21f at Ascot on his last 3 outings suggests this sharp 3m will play to his strengths and he's taken to provide Paul Nicholls with a remarkable eleventh win in this race. Betfair-hero Lostintranslation can fill the forecast spot ahead of last year's winner Clan des Obeaux.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: CYRNAME 13/8 (Bet365)  2nd: Lostintranslation 2/1 (SkyBet & William Hill)

Many pundits are over-complicating this race but we know Cyrname will stay 3m, acts on soft going, has worn hood, wears a tongue tie and usually leads. The negative is neither the 13/8 or 2/1 is perceived value regarding the front two but one of these two will probably win.

Paul Nicholls, trainer: "Harry thinks he is the one to beat and so do I. The only thing he hasn't done is win over three miles but I don't think that is a problem because I see him as a stayer. It's definitely not like when we ran Azertyuiop in the King George and had to try to ride him to get the trip. I watched all Cyrname's races on Sunday night and when he was second in the Scilly Isles at Sandown all he did was stay on up the hill. The best way I can put it is that, to me, he is as much a stayer as Clan Des Obeaux. I wouldn't even have it in my mind that he won't stay ? because he will stay. We weren't just targeting the Ascot race and trying to beat Altior. His whole season has been geared around the King George. Ascot was always his prep for Kempton. He was fit enough to win last time but he is bound to improve for that run. All I've been thinking about for Cyrname is the King George, partly because I can't see him being a Gold Cup horse, at least not this season. I would be surprised if we even thought about it."

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15:40: 32Red Download The App Handicap Hurdle Race 2m5f

12/12: Won no more than 3 times (UK Hurdles) (100%)
11/12: Aged 6yo or younger (92%)
10/12: Won between 0-2 times hurdles (UK) (83%)
10/12: Returned 8/1 or shorter (83%)
10/12: Placed in the top 3 last time out (83%)
..8/12: Carried 11st 2lbs or more in weight (67%)
..8/12: Officially rated 120-129 (67%)
..8/12: Ran 5 or less weeks ago (67%)
..8/12: Won last time out (67%)
..6/12: Aged 5 or 6yo (50%)
..6/12: Unplaced favourites (50%)
..6/12: French bred (50%)
..3/12: Winning favourites (25%)
..2/12: Trained by Nicky Henderson (17%)

Erick Le Rouge (7/1) won the race 12 months ago
Neil King: 23 runners and 39 days since winner (Canyon City)
Harry Whittington: 1-12 (8%) (Neverbeentoparis & Captain Tommy
Suzi Smith; 1-26 for 4% since April 2019

Timeform

A wide-open finale. MR PUMBLECHOOK shaped quite well when second in a big field at Newbury last time and gets a tentative vote. Star of Lanka wasn't far behind the selection at Newbury and is respected with first-time headgear added now, while Colonel Custard could benefit from the step up in trip and also makes the shortlist. Rhythm Is A Dancer and Dell Oro are others who could go well.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: COLONEL MUSTARD 10/1 (general)  2nd: Star Of Lanka 9/1 (SkyBet)  3rd: Our Power 14/1 (general)  4th: Mr Pumblechook 9/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power & Boylesports)

Colonel Mustard landed brace of novice hurdles last season. Has since posted a couple of creditable placed efforts in handicaps this term and needs considering with the step up in trip a help. Looks an each-way bet to nothing and 12/1 might become available about this one.

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