KEMPTON RACECOURSE TEMPLATE

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KEMPTON RACECOURSE TEMPLATE in preparedness for Boxing Day Thursday 26 December & Friday 27 December 2019.

KEMPTON RACING TRENDS for FRIDAY 26 DECEMBER 2019

Racecourse Template Summary

Our Racecourse Template shows big figures regarding non-favourites in hurdle (51%) and chase (64%) races and these must be acknowledged. Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls farm winners at Kempton and the suggestion is to at least consider runners from their stables when having the SP favourite in a non-handicap race.

FAVOURITES over the last 5 years
NON-HANDICAP RACES                HANDICAP RACES
Hurdle:   60-117 for 51% (-3.73)    28-95 for 29% (-5.01)
Chase:    32-50  for 64% (+7.67)   38-103 for 37% (-1.97)
NHF:       4-13  for 31% (-4.26)    0-0   for  - 
Total:    96-180 for 53% (-0.33)   66-198 for 33% (-6.98)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Kempton 2018/19
Nicky Henderson: 14 wins from 42 for 33%  (+1.80)
Paul Nicholls:   10 wins from 45 for 22%  (-2.94)
Philip Hobbs:     4 wins from 16 for 25%  (-1.00)
Alan King:        4 wins from 30 for 13% (-15.53)
Pam Sly:          2 wins from  3 for 67%  (+0.45)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS Kempton 2018/19
Nico de Boinville: 10 wins from 25 for 40% (+11.27)
Harry Cobden:       8 wins from 33 for 24%  (+4.97)
Wayne Hutchinson:   5 wins from 24 for 21%  (-6.03)
Richard Johnson:    5 wins from 26 for 19%  (-5.30)
Sam Twiston-Davies: 3 wins from 16 for 19%  (+3.08)

Top 5 TRAINERS at Kempton (past 5 seasons)
Nicky Henderson: 82 wins from 285 for 29%
Paul Nicholls:   50 wins from 235 for 21%
Alan King:       29 wins from 205 for 14%
Harry Fry:       19 wins from  80 for 24%
Philip Hobbs:    14 wins from 119 for 12%

Top 5 JOCKEYS at Kempton (past 5 seasons)
Barry Geraghty:    36 wins from 127 for 28%
Nico de Boinville: 33 wins from 115 for 29%
Noel Fehily:       29 wins from 165 for 18%
S Twiston-Davies:  28 wins from 159 for 18%
Richard Johnson:   26 wins from 163 for 16%

The going is expected to be soft. After looking at the card very closely it seems both Nicholls and Henderson will record at least one winner and an obvious starting point to every race on the card.

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Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a math-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a math-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

 Disclaimer
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