Pacafi (21 December 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

DUBAI WARRIOR 2.00 Lingfield 6/4

Betway Quebec Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Pedigree: Third foal; brother to 1m-1m4f AW winner Mootasadir (inc Group 3; RPR 116); dam 6f-1m4f winner (inc South Africa 7f 2yo Gr 1/UAE 1m1f Group 2; 113), out of Australian 5.5f-8.7f winner

Trainer Form: 8-30 for 27%   (10)
OR& RPR:107 & 118            (10)                                   
Optimum Ground: Standard     (10)
Optimum Distance: 1m2f       (10)
Jockey: Rob Havlin           (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (50)

Main danger: Victory Bond 11/4

Group colt racing in Lingfield Listed race

John Gosden has two in the race but Dubai Warrior looks the winner. Before winning over today's trip in a handicap at Chelmsford his Dansili colt was deemed good enough to win a Group 3 at Longchamp on Turf and was heavily backed as the 8/5 favourite but disappointed. The fact he made the trip at the price suggested much. With that recent run under his belt he was victorious at Chelmsford last month and the Gosden 3yo is taken to confirm running with both placed horses Kasbaan (second) and Victory Bond (third).  He actually meets that pair on more favourable terms this time so he should take all the beating.

Looks an AW specialist

Polytrack is clearly his preferred surface and now 3-4 on the AW and his defeat came as the 2/5 favourite when beaten a neck, he can take this before moving towards bigger targets on the AW next year. Looking at his win in handicap company on his favoured surface, he settled well just off the leader. Taking over on the home bend, he wound the pace up and galloped on relentlessly. He will need to keep progressing to get up to Easter Classic standard, but alternatively, he would be an interesting type for the Dubai Carnival, as he looks like and runs like a dirt horse.

John Gosden's 3yo colt has been shining in his recent work on the Al Bahathri and this fact encourages the wager, and we are backing the colt as a Pacafi and a 3FAVINON nomination.

Trainer form

We have talked quite a bit about the form of John Gosden this month and advised members of a mini-upturn. At one point he was 0-12 for December for 0% but has recently recorded 5-11 for 46%. We take this opportunity that although we advise on finding winners we also provide information that leads to finding winners. December now shows 8-32 for 25% so 8-20 for 40% since our advice. At Lingfield he records 163-781 for 21%. For this year the trainer is now 191-710 for 27% - can he get to 200? Will the Pacafi be number 192? This race is his only one of interest tomorrow so it does not look as though the trainer is going for it...

Of his rivals

Gosden sent out Wissahickon to win this Listed prize last year and Court House found the latter too good in the Winter Derby here back in February. He has been gelded since last in action. Dalgarno made a successful raid on the all-weather track at Deauville last month when returning a surprise winner of a Listed race, though this is much tougher. Victory Bond had Kasbaan a length back in third when scoring over this course and distance 17 days ago but isn't sure to confirm superiority though the 6yo gelding is a dual course and distance winner and just about looks the danger.

Timeform

John Gosden took this with Wissahickon 12 months ago and he has another high-class prospect here in the shape of DUBAI WARRIOR, who is confidently expected to gain AW victory number four on his way to better things. Recent C&D winner Victory Bond looks the one to chase him home ahead of the consistent Kasbaan.

Value

Assuming we have a Group horse running in a Listed race with optimum conditions to suit we must absolutely have value at 6/4. This looks a 4/5 shot and just need a percentage ride and a kind trip.

***

     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

15 Dubai Warrior      2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +2.53  S/R  53%
14 The Big Breakaway  1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +1.03  S/R  50%
13 Disco Fever        2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  +0.41  S/R  46%
12 Strong Glance      1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.34  S/R  42%
11 Godhead (S)        2.87  LOSE  1.25  -1.00  -0.34  S/R  45%
10 Pentland Hills     3.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.66  S/R  50% 
 9 Notforalongtime    1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +1.66  S/R  56%
 8 Eritage            2.10  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.13  S/R  50%
 7 Sheriffmuir        1.44  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.13  S/R  57%
 6 Mill't Fawcett (S) 3.25  WIN   1.25  +2.00  +3.13  S/R  67%
 5 Story Of Light     1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.13  S/R  60%
 4 Min                1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.13  S/R  75%
 3 Blackjack Kentucky 2.10  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.33  S/R  67%
 2 Sommer Katze (S)   2.75  WIN   1.25  +1.50  +2.33  S/R 100%
 1 Envoi Allen        1.83  WIN   1.00  +0.83  +0.83  S/R 100%

November SELECTIONS: 15  WIN: 8  LOSE: 7  S/R: 53%   PROFIT: +2.53pts

(112121221522111)   FINISHED First or Second (93.33%)

(SSSSSDSSSDSSSSS) SHORTENS in price (86.67%)

 Disclaimer
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