Cheltenham Racing Trends (Wednesday 1 January 2020)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse looks at the racing at Cheltenham on Wednesday 1 January 2020. Once again a HAPPY NEW YEAR to our members. Not sure the trends help us in the 2.35...

CHELTENHAM RACECOURSE TEMPLATE

1.25: Paddy Power Broken Resolutions Already Dipper Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) 2m4f166y ITV

17/17: Finished in top 3 last time out (100%)
17/17: Raced within the last 6 weeks (100%)
16/17: Returned 6/1 or shorter (94%)
15/17: Ran in Cheltenham Festival race (1 winner) (88%)
14/17: Came from the top three in the betting (82%)
14/17: Raced within the last 4 weeks (82%)
13/17: Won between 1-2 times over fences before (76%)
13/17: Won over fences at 2m3f or further before (76%)
13/17: Aged between 6-8yo (76%)
10/17: Placed favourites (59%)
10/17: Irish bred (59%0
..9/17: Won last time out (53%)
..8/17: Won over hurdles at Cheltenham before (47%)
..7/17: Returned 5/4 or shorter (41%)
..7/17: Ran at Sandown or Cheltenham last time out (41%)
..7/17: Winning favourites (41%)
..7/17: Aged 7yo (41%)
..2/17: Won by the Pipe stable (12%)
..2/17: Ridden by Barry Geraghty (12%)
..1/17: Went onto win Arkle Chase (My Way De Solzen, 2007) (6%)

Timeform

CHAMP has quickly surpassed his smart hurdles form over fences with 2 odds-on victories at Newbury and did very well to win last time having had to switch sharply to stay on the correct course late on. He's favourite for the RSA here in March and can take his chase record to 3-3 with more improvement to come. Last year's Relkeel winner Midnight Shadow may emerge as the chief danger.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: CHAMP 4/7 (Fell)  2nd: Midnight Shadow 9/2 (WINNER)

Champ is one of our two Pacafis for tomorrow: 

PACAFI (1 January 2020)

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2.00: Paddy Power Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m4f166y ITV

17/17: Ran over fences at Cheltenham before (100%)
16/17: Raced within last 2 months (94%)
15/17: Won at least twice over fences before (88%)
15/17: Either French (6) or Irish (9) bred (88%)
14/17: Won over 2m4f or further (fences) before (82%)
14/17: Raced within the last 4 weeks (82%)
14/17: Priced 9/1 or shorter (82%)
13/17: Rated 138 or higher (76%)
12/17: Aged 8yo or older (71%)
11/17: Carried 11st 0lbs or less (65%)
11/17: Unplaced last time out (65%)
11/17: Ran at season’s Cheltenham Festival (65%)
10/17: Won over fences at Cheltenham before (59%)
..9/17: Ran at Cheltenham last time out (53%)
..9/17: Unplaced favourites (53%)
..9/17: Came from the top 3 in the betting (53%)
..5/17: Winning favourites (29%)
..3/17: Won by Nigel Twiston-Davies (18%)
..1/17: Won Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham Festival (6%)

Aso (3/1f) won the race in 2019

Timeform

KALASHNIKOV has been raised 6lbs for his narrow Newbury defeat at the hands of Oldgrangewood, but it was a terrific effort and one which suggested that the best may be yet to come from this 7yo. Oldgrangewood was seen to maximum effect on that occasion and it could be that Ok Corral, who remains with potential as a chaser, and Saint Calvados will emerge as the main dangers this time.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: Ok CORAL 8/1 (9th)  2nd: Kalashnikov 4/1 (8th)  3rd: Magic Saint 11/1 (7th). 

Ok Coral won his first 2 starts over fences last term and excuses when pulled up at the Festival in March. Probably needed the run on Newbury reappearance (26f, good) and he's one to consider at the price back down in trip. Looks the each-way value in the race and nominated above Kalashnikov based on price...

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2.35: Paddy Power 68 Sleeps To Cheltenham Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m ITV

15/16: Raced within the last 4 weeks (94%)
13/16: Aged between 5-7yo (81%)
13/16: Raced at Cheltenham before (81%)
12/16: Won a hurdles race over at least 2m4f before (75%)
11/16: Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before (69%)
11/16: Rated 130 or higher (69%)
11/16: Unplaced last time out (69%)
10/16: Carried 10st 9lbs or more (63%)
..9/16: Ran in race at season’s Cheltenham Festival (56%)
..9/16: Came from outside the top 3 in the betting (56%)
..8/16: Unplaced favourites (50%)
..8/16: Ran at Cheltenham last time out (50%)
..6/16: Won over at least 3m (hurdles) before (38%)
..6/16: French bred (38%)
..5/16: Won over hurdles at Cheltenham before (31%)
..3/16: Won last time out (19%)
..3/16: Winning favourites (19%)
..2/16: Won by the Pipe stable (13%)
..1/16: Won by a mare (6%)

Timeform 

SKANDIBURG is a hurdler on the up, which cannot be said for a fair few of these (several of whom revert from chasing), and with both runs this autumn working out well, his revised mark should be within reach, Who's My Jockey starts out for a yard in red-hot form and has the services of a good-value conditional, while the Henderson pair Might Bite and Beware The Bear add intrigue to the race.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: SKANDIBURG 5/1 (WINNER)  2nd: The Jam Man 8/1 (4th)  3rd: Might Bite 12/1 (PU)

Have not found the trends useful at all for this race but our nomination is a dual novice winner around 2½m last season and confirmed the promise of his reappearance when adding to tally in handicap company at Aintree in November (24.7f). The 6lb rise could be lenient, looks a solid place bet.

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3.10: Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle Cl2 2m4f110y ITV

13/15: Ran in race at Cheltenham Festival (0 winners) (87%)
13/15: Won by French (5) or Irish (8) bred (87%)
13/15: Raced within the last 6 weeks (87%)
12/15: Raced at Cheltenham before (80%)
10/15: Priced 11/2 or shorter (67%)
10/15: Won at least 4 times over hurdles before (67%)
10/15: Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before (67%)
..9/15: Came from top 3 in the betting (60%)
..9/15: Won at Cheltenham before (60%)
..8/15: Ran in the Stayers’ Hurdle later that season (53%)
..6/15: Raced at Cheltenham last time out (40%)
..6/15: Winning favourites (40%)
..6/15: Won last time out (40%)
..4/15: Trained by Nicky Henderson (27%)
..4/15: Ridden by Barry Geraghty (27%)
..2/15: Trained by the Pipe stable (13%)

Midnight Shadow (8/1) won the race in 2019

Timeform 

ROKSANA is probably worth forgiving an underwhelming effort last time as it came only a couple of weeks on from her good reappearance run and this largely reliable mare is taken to bounce straight back to form. Emitom could have even more to offer this term and rates a danger along with the Nicky Henderson pair William Henry and Janika

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: JANIKA 5/2 (4th)  2nd: Emitom 3/1 (6th)

Janika was very smart over fences since joining this yard last winter, the highlight being Haldon Gold Cup win in October. Sure to have a big say if he can translate anything like that form back to hurdles. Think the front two have the mare Roksana covered and we have bet split stakes on this race and confident of collecting!

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