Warwick Racing Trends (11 January 2020)

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The Racing Horse provides our Racecourse Template, Racing Trends and Betting Advice for Warwick on Saturday 11 January 2020. Important to note the high strike rates of favourites in non-handicaps over hurdles and chases, with 99 winners from 178 races for 56% and a level stake profit of 17.03.

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)
Hurdle:   72-130 for 55% (+15.91)   31-146 for 21% (-57.41)
Chase:    27-48  for 56%  (+1.12)   57-161 for 35%  (-6.99)
NHF:      21-61  for 34%  (-4.05)    0-0   for  - 
Total:   120-239 for 50% (+12.98)   88-307 for 29% (-64.41)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Warwick this season
Dan Skelton:     12 wins from 42 for 29% (-11.65)
Philip Hobbs:     5 wins from 18 for 28%  (+4.25)
Jeremy Scott:     4 wins from  8 for 50% (+14.00)
Jonjo O'Neill:    4 wins from 23 for 17%  (+7.00)
Charlie Longsdon: 3 wins from 12 for 25%  (+8.50)
 
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Warwick this season
Harry Skelton:    13 wins from 41 for 32% (-7.90)
Richard Johnson:   7 wins from 24 for 29% (+4.12)
Leighton Aspell:   3 wins from  7 for 43% (+5.72)
Adam Wedge:        3 wins from 17 for 18% (+5.75)
Jonjo O'Neill:     3 wins from 17 for 18% (+9.50)

1.50: McCoy Contractors 2020 Construction News Award Finalist Hampton Novices´ Chase (Listed Race) 3m ITV4 

12/12: Returned 5/1 or shorter (100%)
12/12: Won between 0-2 times over fences (100%)
12/12: Finished in top 4 last time out (100%)
11/12: Raced in the last 7 weeks (92%)
10/12: Won between 1-2 times over fences (83%)
10/12: Finished 1 or 2 last time out (83%)
10/12: Favourites that finished in the top 3 (83%)
..8/12: Aged 7yo (67%)
..8/12: Won over 3m (or further) chase (67%)
..8/12: Won last time out (67%)
..7/12: Returned 9/4 or shorter (58%)
..7/12: Irish bred (58%)
..2/12: Trained by Alan King (17%)
..2/12: Trained by Paul Nicholls (17%)
..2/12: Ridden by Daryl Jacob (17%)
..2/12: Winning favourites (17%)

The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 11/4
Favourites in non-handicap chases: 27-48 for 56% (+1.12)
Mick Channon just 1 winner since May 2018 (HOLD THE NOTE)
Kim Bailey 0-17 (22 days) (TWO FOR GOLD)

Timeform

HIGHEST SUN boasts some strong chasing form already and may be the answer to this Grade 2. Two For Gold made hard work of things at Kelso but remains potentially smart, while Roll Again and Hold The Note were both unlucky at Kempton on Boxing Day, so are worth another chance.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: HIGHEST SUN 2/1 (4th)  2nd: Ardlethen 9/2 (5th)

Useful hurdler. Defeated only by some really promising chasers on his first 2 starts in this sphere before getting off the mark in 2-runner event at Plumpton last month.

2.25: Ballymore Leamington Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m5f ITV4 

13/13: Returned 8/1 or shorter (100%)
13/13: Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before (100%)
13/13: Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before (100%)
13/13: Finished 1 or 2 last time out (100%)
12/13: Raced within the last 5 weeks (92%)
12/13: Came from top 3 in the betting (92%)
11/13: Ran at season’s Cheltenham Festival (85%)
..9/13: Winning distance – 4 lengths or less (69%)
..9/13: Irish bred (69%)
..8/13: Won last time out (62%)
..6/13: Winning favourites (46%)
..6/13: Placed favourites (46%)
..6/13: Aged 5yo (46%)
..2/13: Trained by Dan Skelton (2 of the last 5) (15%)
..2/13: Won at season’s Cheltenham Festival  (15%)

The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 10/3
Favourites in non-handicap hurdles: 72-130 for 55% (+15.91)

Timeform

SHAN BLUE arrives having completed a simple task at Southwell, yet he had previous showed plenty, runner-up behind a subsequent Grade 2 winner on his respective hurdling debut in November. He shades the vote, with Mossy Fen, who wasn't seen to best effect last time, and Keen On fancied to emerge as the main dangers.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: HARRY SENIOR 7/2 (NON-RUNNER)  2nd: Shan Blue 11/4 (3rd)

Harry Senior is a likeable sort who deservedly opened hurdles account in a Chepstow maiden (19.5f) over Christmas. He will have more to offer at this sort of trip and just the nomination based on price over Shan Blue.

The Racing 3.00: McCoy Constructors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m5f ITV4 

14/14: Raced within last 6 weeks (100%)
13/14: Raced within last 5 weeks (93%)
12/14: Won chase race over at least 3m (86%)
11/14: Carried 11st 2lbs or less (79%)
11/14: Winners came from outside top 3 in betting (79%)
10/14: Officially rated between 129-140 (71%)
10/14: Aged between 7- 9yo (71%)
..9/14: Won by horse aged 9yo or older (64%)
..9/14: Winning distance – 4 lengths or less (64%)
..9/14: Won by an Irish bred horse (64%)
..8/14: Won between 2-5 times over fences before (57%)
..8/14: Raced at Warwick (hurdles, chase, NH Flat) previously (57%)
..8/14: Placed in the top 3 in last race (57%)
..7/14: Favourites placed (50%)
..7/14: Returned a double-figure price (50%)
..6/14: Ran at Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in last race (43%)
..5/14: Winners ran in season’s Grand National (36%)
..3/14: Trained by Paul Nicholls (21%)
..3/14: Won last race (21%)
..2/14: Trained by Alan King (14%)

Impulsive Star (8/1) won the race in 2019
Milansbar (12/1) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 11/1
Favourites in handicap chases: 57-161 for 35% (-6.99)

Timeform

KIMBERLITE CANDY posted another fine effort in a good handicap when runner-up in the Becher on his return and a 3 lb rise may not stop him going one better if showing up in similar form. Bobo Mac, The Conditional and Petite Power have all thrived so far this season and head the dangers in a typically competitive renewal of this valuable staying prize.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: KIMBERLIGHT CANDY 11/2 (WINNER)  2nd: Captain Chaos 16/1 (2nd)  3rd: The Conditional 4/1 (4th)

Exacta: £57.10 & CSF: £48.55

Unfurnished gelding, winning hurdler but useful handicap chaser. Off 8 months and in cheekpieces, 11/1, better than ever when 2½ lengths second of 18 to Walk In The Mill in Becher Chase at Aintree on return, staying on well to pull clear of rest. Acts on heavy going and should be the favourite for this race.

3.35: Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) 3m1f ITV4

14/14: Winning distance – 4 lengths or less (100%)
13/14: Won between 1-4 times over hurdles before (93%)
....8/9: Aged 8yo or younger (89%)
12/14: Carried 11st 0lbs or less (86%)
12/14: Raced within last 5 weeks (86%)
11/14: Never raced over hurdles at Warwick before (79%)
11/14: Officially rated between 126-142 (79%)
11/14: Returned 9/1 or shorter (79%)
10/14: Won over at least 3m (hurdles) before (71%)
10/14: Unplaced in Pertemps at Cheltenham Festival (71%)
....4/6: Ridden by a claiming jockey (67%)
..8/14: Came from top 3 in the betting (57%)
..7/14: Placed favourites (50%)
..5/14: Won last time out (36%)
..2/14: Ran at Bangor last time out (14%)
..2/14: Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (14%)
..2/14: Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (14%)
..2/14: Ridden by Paddy Brennan (14%)
..2/14: Winning favourites (14%)

Favourites in handicap hurdles: 31-146 for 21% (-57.41)

Timeform

DOC PENFRO may have only won a small-field event at Bangor last time but he'd probably have won it by further in a truly-run race, so this lightly-raced hurdler is expected to really show what he's about in a big field and gets the nod ahead of Tedham, another one who's going the right way. One For The Team is another big player.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: ONE FOR THE TEAM 11/2 (3rd)  2nd: Lisnagar Oscar 14/1 (Fell)  3rd: White Moon 40/1

Wincanton bumper winner who is going the right way over hurdles and found only one too good in a similarly competitive event at Newbury last time. Definite place chance and deserves to be favourite. Price just a little short?

***

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