Cheltenham Racing Trends (25 January 2020)

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The Racing Horse looks at every race at Cheltenham on Saturday. We will provide Racing Trends, our Racecourse Template and Betting Advice. The ground is expected to be soft.

12.40: JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (A Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) 2m179f 


....3/3: Owned by JP McManus (100%)
14/16: Finished 1 or 2 last time out (88%)
13/16: Raced within the last 7 weeks (81%)
13/16: Placed favourites (81%)
12/16: Ran in season’s Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham (75%) Festival
12/16: Top 3 in the betting (75%)
10/16: Won at least once over hurdles in the UK (63%)
10/16: Won last time out (63%)
....4/7: Trained by Nicky Henderson (57%)
..9/16: Returned 2/1 or shorter (56%)
..9/16: French bred (including last 7 winners) (56%)
..8/16: Winning favourites (1 joint) (50%)
..7/16: Placed in season’s Triumph Hurdle (3 winners) (44%)
..5/16: Raced at Cheltenham previously (31%)
..4/16: Trained by Alan King (25%)
..4/16: Priced 25/1, 50/1 or 100/1 (25%)
..3/16: German bred (19%)
..3/16: Irish bred (19%)

47%: Daryl Jacob's strike rate on hurdling favourites (MONTE CRISTO)

Timeform 

Nicky Henderson has taken this race 4 times since 2013 and there's a good chance French-recruit MONTE CRISTO will enhance that already impressive record. Rowland Ward had a bit up his sleeve when successful at Kempton over Christmas and is the one likely to give him most to do.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: MONTE CRISTO 6/5 (4th)  2nd: Rowland Ward 7/2 (5th)

13.15: Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase 2m4f127y

16/16: Aged 8yo or younger (100%)
15/16: Ran at season’s Cheltenham Festival (2 winners) (94%)
15/16: Won between 0-2 races over fences in UK previously (94%)
14/16: Raced within last 6 weeks (88%)
13/16: Finished 1 or 2 last time out (81%)
13/16: Won over at least 2m4f (fences) in UK previously (81%)
12/16: Priced 13/2 or shorter (75%)
12/16: Rated 128 or higher (75%)
10/16: Top 3 in the betting (63%)
10/16: Irish bred (63%)
..9/16: Winning distance – 5 lengths or more (56%)
..8/16: Carried 11st 2lbs or more (50%)
..7/16: Won last time out (44%)
..6/16: Ran at Kempton last time out (38%)
..5/16: French bred (31%)
..3/16: Ran at Cheltenham last time out (19%)
..3/16: Trained by Venetia Williams (19%)
..3/16: Carried 11st 12lbs (19%)
..2/16: Ridden by Richard Johnson (13%)
..2/16: Trained by Colin Tizzard (13%)
..1/16: Winning favourites (6%)
..0/10: Winning favourites (0%)

Timeform 

A highly competitive handicap but CLOUDY GLEN looks to have got in on a handy mark so Venetia Williams's improving young chaser is given the nod. Imperial Aura also has much better days ahead of him and heads a big list of dangers, while recent-winners Champagne Court and Mercy Mercy Me are two others who are well worth a second look in a most interesting novice contest.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: SIMPLY THE BETTS 15/2 (WINNER)  2nd: Mercy Mercy Me 11/1 (Last)  3rd: Cloudy Glen 15/2 (RO)

1.50: Paddy Power 45 Sleeps To Cheltenham Trophy Handicap Chase (A Handicap) (Grade 3) 2m4f127y ITV

14/16: Won over at least 2m5f (fences) previously (88%)
14/16: Priced 9/1 or shorter (88%)
14/16: Won between 1-4 times over fences previously (88%)
14/16: Placed in top 4 last time out (88%)
14/16: Rated 130 or higher (88%)
13/16: Ran within last 7 weeks (81%)
12/16: Finished 1 or 2 last time out (75%)
11/16: Aged 8yo or older (69%)
11/16: Ran over fences at Cheltenham before (7 won) (69%)
11/16: Ran at season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner) (69%)
10/16: Top 3 in the betting (63%)
..9/16: Aged 8 or 9yo (56%)
..9/16: Carried 10st 7lbs or less (56%)
..6/16: Won last time out (38%)
..5/16: Ran at Cheltenham last time out (31%)
..4/16: Ran at Newbury last time out (25%)
..3/16: Winning favourites (19%)
..3/16: Won by previous winner of race (19%)
..2/16: Won by Pipe stable (13%)
..2/16: Won by Hobbs stable (13%)

Timeform 

HIGHWAY ONE O ONE looked better than ever when a close third at Kempton over Christmas, going for home a long way out in what had already been a well-run race, and he's capable of winning off this mark. Warthog and Spiritofthegames fought out a thrilling finish in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup over C&D 6 weeks ago and head a number of potential dangers.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: SPIRITOFTHEGAMES 9/1 (2nd)  2nd: Highway One O One 6/1 (PU)  3rd: Count Meribel 8/1 (PU)

2.25: Paddy Power Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) 3m1f56y ITV

16/16: Officially rated 151 or higher (100%)
15/16: Raced in last 8 weeks (94%)
15/16: Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (9 won) (94%)
15/16: Won over at least 3m before (fences) (94%)
10/12: Aged 9 or 10yo (83%)
13/16: Won between 2-6 times over fences (81%)
11/16: Race in season’s Gold Cup (0 winners) (69%)
11/16: Aged 9 or 10yo (69%)
11/16: Ran at Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time (69%)
11/16: Priced 7/1 or less (69%)
10/16: Placed favourites (63%)
..9/16: Winning distance – 6 lengths or more (56%)
..7/16: Unplaced last time out (44%)
..7/16: Won by Irish-bred horse (44%)
..7/16: Won last time out (44%)
..6/16: Winners from outside top 3 in market (38%)
..6/16: Won by French-bred horse (38%)
..3/16: Won by Paul Nicholls (5 wins in total) (19%)
..2/16: Won by Oliver Sherwood yard (13%)
..1/16: Won Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015) (6%)
..0/16: Favourites (0%)

Looks Like Trouble (2000) last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup

Timeform 

SANTINI wasn't overly impressive on his reappearance (had wind op since) but he looked highly promising in his novice campaign and can set himself up for a Gold Cup bid by landing this Grade 2 prize. Bristol de Mai is prone to the odd mistake but is likely to pose a threat with anything like a clean round of jumping. The progressive Slate House should also figure prominently.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: SANTINI 2/1 (WINNER)  2nd: Bristol De Mai 9/4 (2nd)

Exacta: £5.10 & CSF: £5.94

3.00: Ballymore Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) (4yo+) 2m4f56y ITV4

14/14: Placed 1 or 2 in their last race (100%)
13/14: Ran within last 8 weeks (93%)
12/14: Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously (86%)
12/14: Raced at season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners) (86%)
11/14: Favourites placed (79%)
11/14: Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously (79%)
11/14: From the top 3 in the market (79%)
11/14: Won latest race (79%)
10/14: Aged 6yo (71%)
..9/14: Priced 7/2 or less (64%)
..8/14: Raced at Cheltenham previously (57%)
..5/14: Winning favourites (36%)
..4/14: Raced at Cheltenham last time out (29%)
..4/14: Raced at Newbury last time out (29%)
..4/14: Won by Nicky Henderson stable (29%)
..3/14: Won by Alan King stable (21%)
..3/14: Won at season’s Cheltenham Festival (21%)
..3/14: Ridden by Barry Geraghty (21%)

Timeform 

 KING ROLAND is a deeply-exciting prospect and looks the one to beat with the longer trip sure to suit. Harry Senior should have more to offer, as should Time Flies By, a course bumper winner who was pitched into an Ascot Grade 2 for his hurdles debut and who seems sure to leave that form behind for his top trainer who is seeking a third straight win in this event.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: KING ROLAND 7/4 (2nd)  2nd: Harry Senior 9/2 (WINNER)  3rd: Protektorat 13/2 (3rd)

Exacta: £9.70 & CSF: £10.46 Trifecta: £39.80

3.35: galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) 3m ITV

14/15: Aged 9yo or younger (93%)
14/15: Ran within the last 8 weeks (93%)
14/15: Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously (93%)
13/15: Raced at Cheltenham (hurdles) previously (87%)
12/15: Ran in season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (5 won) (80%)
12/15: Officially rated 154 or higher (80%)
11/15: Finished in top 4 in season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (73%)
10/15: Winning distance – 2 lengths or more (67%)
10/15: Finished either 1 or 2 in their last race (67%)
..9/15: Favourites placed (60%)
..9/15: Winners from top 3 in the market (60%)
..8/15: Won latest race (53%)
..7/15: Winning favourites (47%)
..6/15: French-bred horse (40%)
..3/15: Won by Paul Nicholls stable (20%)

42%: Aidan Coleman's strike rate on hurdling favourites

Timeform

 PAISLEY PARK made the staying division his own last season, culminating in a decisive win at the festival, and having extended his winning sequence to 6 on reappearance, is expected to land this race again before defending his crown in the Stayers' Hurdle. If The Cap Fits is very smart in his own right and given he's unexposed over 3m, is expected to keep the selection honest.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: PAISLEY PARK 8/11 (WINNER)  2nd: If The Cap Fits 3/1 (5th)

4.10 Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) 2m179y

15/15: Rated 120 or higher (100%)
14/15: Raced within last 9 weeks (93%)
10/11: Carried 10st 12lbs or less (91%)
13/15: Priced 8/1 or shorter (87%)
12/15: Won 1-3 times over hurdles in UK before (80%)
11/15: Raced at Cheltenham before (73%)
10/15: Top 3 in the betting (67%)
10/15: Ran at season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner) (67%)
..8/15: Placed 1 or 2 last time out (53%)
..8/15: Unplaced favourites (53%)
..8/15: Irish bred (53%)
..7/15: Winning distance – 1¼ or less (47%)
..5/15: French bred (33%)
..4/15: Won last time out (27%)
..3/15: Winning favourites (20%)
..3/15: Ridden by Paddy Brennan (20%)
..2/15: Trained by Paul Nicholls (13%)
..2/15: Ridden by Tom Scudamore (13%)

31%: Nicky Henderson's strike rate with hurdlers at up to 2m2f (LUST FOR GLORY)

39%: Harry Skelton's strike rate on hurdling favourites (SOFIA'S ROCK)

Timeform

SOFIA'S ROCK lost little caste in defeat behind one way ahead of its mark at Huntingdon in November and, given that was his best effort to date, all looks set fair for another big run from the same mark. We Run The Night arrives boasting a 100% record from France and is feared, along with En Meme Temps and Lust for Glory.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: LUST FOR GLORY 13/2 (2nd)  2nd: Sofia's Rock 5/1 (10th)  3rd: We Run The Night 8/1 (11th)

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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