The Cheltenham Festival is unique and comes with its own personality, type and quality - a failure or disregard to understand/appreciate gives the edge to the bookmaker. The very essence of the Festival makes demands not applicable elsewhere, and if the reader believes (as we do), that mathematics is the governing force of horse rating betting they need to absorb then honour our numbers.
There will be a fairy story or two this year but of the 28 races the vast majority will be won by the best trainers, taking them on is folly.
It is not a secret who the best trainers are and right here and now we can confidently predict that Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Gordon Elliott and Paul Nicholls will train at least half of the winners. The reality suggests they will win between 12 and 16 of the 28 races and these numbers are irrelevant of the ground conditions. The number 12 is probably a conservative estimate but even with Henry De Bromhead threatening to gategrash the private party our best guess is that figure will be beaten!
Below was our message to members before the 2019 Festival:
Talking of winners 21 of the 28 races at the 2018 Cheltenham Festival were won by just five trainers. They were Gordon Elliott (8), Willie Mullins (7), Nicky Henderson (2), Paul Nicholls (2) and Colin Tizzard (2). Both Irish trainers were on top of their game whilst our two best English trainers came up a little short.
So what were the numbers for 2019?
TOP TRAINERS at 2019 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL
Nicky Henderson: 4-35 for 11% (+27)
Willie Mullins: 4-59 for 7% (+18)
Gordon Elliott: 3-45 for 7% (-35)
Henry De Bromhead: 2-19 for 11% (+38)
Dan Skelton: 2-13 for 15% (+11)
Joseph O'Brien: 2-17 for 12% (-6)
Paul Nicholls: 2-34 for 6% (-13)
Regarding numbers, both Gordon Elliott and Paul Nicholls under-performed but the top four still won 13 of the 28 races. If we amalgamate the 2018 figures it would be fair to suggest something between 2018 and 2019 happening again so 19 + 13 = 32 ÷ 2 = 16. If we assume/accept the 2018 figures were particularly high and err on the side of caution our par figure of 14 looks reasonable/sensible.
We are almost certain to go to Cheltenham on Tuesday to witness Pentland Hills bid to win the Champion Hurdle, but from the first race on Wednesday we will open a live blog HERE to count the numbers of the big four and look at their entries in the forthcoming races.
Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a math-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a math-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.
The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.
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