Newbury Racing Trends (Saturday 8 February 2020)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

There will be more Cheltenham Festival clues at Newbury on Saturday and we will have the Racecourse Template, Racing Trends and Betting Advice to assist members. The Denman Chase, Betfair Hurdle and the Betfair Exchange Chase are standout races.

NEWBURY RACECOURSE TEMPLATE

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1.50: Betfair In-Play Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) 3m52y ITV4

13/14: Won no more than 3 times over hurdles before (93%)
12/14: Ran within last 10 weeks (86%)
10/14: Won over at least 2½ miles (hurdles) before (71%)
10/14: Aged 7yo or younger (71%)
10/14: Carried 10st 13lbs or more (71%)
..9/14: Unplaced last time out (64%)
..9/14: Carried 11st 0lbs or more(64%)
..7/14: Came from the top 3 in the betting (50%)
..6/14: Aged 7yo (43%)
..6/14: Winners ran at season’s Cheltenham Festival (0 winners) (43%)
..5/14: Ran over hurdles at Newbury before (0 winners) (36%)
..3/14: French bred (21%)
..3/14: Won last time out (21%)
..3/14: Winning favourites (21%)
..2/14: Trained by Nicky Henderson (14%)
..2/14: Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (14%)
..2/14: Raced at Haydock last time out (14%) 

Timeform

A case can be made for most of these but at the likely odds the most persuasive one is for VERSATILITY, who is still low mileage and gave the strong impression 3m would really suit when sticking on for fourth at Ascot last time. In-form Anytime Will Do heads the list of dangers, while C&D winner Vive Le Roi is another well worth considering along with unexposed duo Ainchea and Thunderstruck.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: ANY TIME WILL DO 9/1 (5th)  2nd: One For The Team 4/1 (WINNER)  3rd: Acey Milan 8/1 into 5/2 (8th)

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2.25: Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) 3m ITV4

14/16: Won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before (88%)
14/16: Won over at least 3m (fences) before (88%)
13/16: Ran within the last 6 weeks (81%)
13/16: Rated 150+ (81%)
12/16: Placed favourites (75%)
12/16: Aged 8yo or younger (75%)
12/16: Came from top 3 in the betting (75%)
11/16: Winners ran at season’s Gold Cup (4 winners) (69%)
10/16: Raced at Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time out (63%)
10/16: Won over fences at Newbury before (63%)
..7/13: Aged 7yo (54%)
..7/16: Trained by Paul Nicholls (44%)
..7/16: Won last time out (44%)
..7/16: Winning favourites (44%)
..6/16: Irish bred (38%)
..6/16: French bred (38%)
..4/16: Winners won Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River) (25%)
..3/16: Returned a double-figure price (19%)
..3/16: Ridden by Richard Johnson (19%)
..2/16: Won by the Pipe stable (13%)

The average SP in the last 13 years is 3/1

Timeform 

ALTIOR’s extraordinary winning run finally came to an end at Ascot in November but he was by no means disgraced and he ought to prove extremely difficult to beat back over 2m as he bids to win this for a third time. Sceau Royal has had excuses on both his starts this season and can bag the runner-up spot.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: ALTIOR 8/15 (WINNER)  2nd: Sceau Royal 9/1 (2nd)

Exacta: £4.90 & CSF: £4.92

Nicky Henderson talks about Altior

PRESSURE gets to all of us and now we know it got to Nicky Henderson with this handling of Altior. The 10yo lost his long unbeaten streak first time out this season, when succumbing to Cyrname as he stepped up in distance at Ascot in November. Henderson felt under pressure to do something different, after Altior had dominated the two-mile scene for so long, but admits with hindsight it was the wrong thing to do – and the dual Champion Chaser has since missed out on races he would normally have been expected to win.

"We said we would have a go at a longer distance, but what we did was leave all the other races like the Clarence House and Tingle Creek going begging. It was the wrong thing to do, but there was a lot of pressure put on us, saying ‘Come on, do something different. If you say he is a champion, prove he can stay. Otherwise he is just a boring two-mile chaser’. So, he’s a boring two-mile chaser. Remember when Frankel moved up two furlongs and everybody said, ‘My God, can he get it?’. He was brilliant at York, and he was fantastic, but we were going five furlongs further in bottomless ground – and we were not prepared.  admit that, and it was my fault."

"He was as fit as I could get him first time out, but you don’t normally expect to come into that sort of clash on your first appearance. I respected what people wanted. To be fair, Nico (de Boinville) was keen on the idea of a new trip. The biggest problem was it was the first run of the year – and he got caught out. I did get caught out because he wasn’t ready for two-miles-five in that ground at that pace. That ground at Ascot has been unseasonably horrible all winter, to be fair."

For today the trainer said: "He looks well – and all that is fine, I hope, touch wood – but these things can come and bite you. He is pretty ready. He does his work as well as ever! If he is going to get to Cheltenham he has got to run in the race."

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3.00: Betfair Exchange Chase (Registered as The Game Spirit Chase) (Grade 2) 2m92y ITV4

14/14: Priced 5/1 or shorter (100%)
13/14: Placed favourites (93%)
13/14: Aged 8yo or younger (93%)
12/14: Ran at season’s Champion Chase (3 winners) (86%)
11/14: Raced within the last 8 weeks (79%)
11/14: Placed in top 3 last time out (79%)
11/14: Won at least 4 times over fences before (79%)
..8/14: Won last time out (57%)
..8/14: Winning favourites (57%)
..7/14: Raced at Newbury (fences) before (5 winners) (50%)
..6/14: French bred (43%)
..6/14: Trained by Paul Nicholls (43%)
..5/14: Ran at Sandown last time out (36%)
..4/14: Trained by Nicky Henderson (29%)
..3/14: Won season’s Champion Chase (21%)
..2/14: Ridden by Barry Geraghty (14%)
..2/14: Won season's Arkle Chase (14%)

The 2019 race was ran at Ascot

Timeform 

Not a strong renewal of this Grade 2 and NATIVE RIVER is confidently selected to record a third win in the race. He was impressive at Aintree and can warm up for another crack at the Gold Cup with victory. Secret Investor could offer some value for each-way backers.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: NATIVE RIVER 2/5 (WINNER)  2nd: Secret Investor 10/1 (2nd)

Exacta: £4.00 & CSF: £4.54

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3.35: Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) 2m110y ITV4

17/17: Carried 11st 8lbs or less in weight (100%)
22/23: Aged 7 or younger (96%)
16/17: Aged 7yo or younger (94%)
15/17: Placed in the top 3 last time out (88%)
15/17: Rated 130 or higher (88%)
14/17: Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in UK/IRE before (82%)
14/17: Raced within last 8 weeks (82%)
14/17: Came from first 7 in the betting (82%)
14/17: Ran at season’s Cheltenham Festival (82%)
14/17: Aged either 5 or 6yo (82%)
12/17: Placed favourites (71%)
10/17: Carried 10st 9lbs or less in weight (59%)
..9/17: Came from top 5 in the betting (53%)
..8/17: Won last time out (47%)
..8/17: Returned a double-figure price in the betting (47%)
..8/17: Irish bred (47%)
..7/17: Aged 5yo (including 7 of last 11) (41%)
..7/17: Winning favourites (41%)
..4/17: Raced at Cheltenham last time out (24%)
..3/17: Trained by Nicky Henderson (5 times in all) (18%)
..3/17: Trained by Gary Moore (18%)
..2/17: Raced at Leopardstown last time out (12%)
..2/17: Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (12%)
..2/17: Owned by JP McManus (12%)
..1/17: Won County Hurdle at Cheltenham Festival that season (6%)

The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 13/1

Timeform 

A race dominated by novices in recent times, and CIEL DE NEIGE fits the bill as an unexposed 5-y-o representing leading connections. He shaped with abundant promise in a brace of high-end handicaps 9 months apart and shouldn't be judged too harshly on his subsequent Limerick reversal. Mack The Man is unbeaten in handicaps, while Highly Prized has perhaps been saved for this.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: CIEL DE NEIGE 11/1 (2nd)  2nd: Never Adapt 8/1 (PU)  3rd: Mack The Man 8/1 (PU)  4th: Thebannerkingrebel 10/1 (17th)

Willie Mullins told us: "Ciel De Neige (Aidan Coleman) goes for the Betfair Handicap Hurdle over 2 miles. He was very unlucky not to win at Limerick at Christmas and has a nice weight here. He has plenty of experience and will handle the ground. He has a good each-way chance,"

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

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