Ascot Racing Trends

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse looks at the trends from four races from Ascot on Saturday and provide our pertinent Racecourse Template to assist the process.

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ASCOT RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Saturday 15 February 2020

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1.50: Sodexo Reynoldstown Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) 2m7f180y ITV4

17/17: Priced 17/2 or shorter (100%)
15/17: Aged 6 or 7yo (88%)
15/17: Ran within the last 7 weeks (88%)
14/17: Won between 1-3 times over fences previously (82%)
14/17: Top 3 in the betting (82%)
12/17: Won last time out (71%)
10/17: Irish bred (59%)
10/17: Won over at least 3m (fences) before (59%)
10/17: Went onto run in season’s RSA Chase (2 winners) (59%)
..9/17: Finished 5th or better in the RSA Chase (53%)
..8/17: Placed favourites (47%)
..7/17: Winning favourites (1 joint) (41%)
..3/17: Ridden by Barry Geraghty (18%)
..3/17: Trained by Nicky Henderson (18%)
..3/17: Trained by Paul Nicholls (18%)
..2/17: Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (12%)

2005 & 2006 ran at Lingfield Park

Winning favourites in non-handicap chases: 24-40 for 60% (+2.34)

Timeform 

It's hard to get away from the exciting SAM BROWN, who has looked right out of the top drawer since switched to chasing on the back of a long absence. Further progress is expected, so he can see off the likes of Copperhead and Two For Gold, who have both jumped very efficiently to this point considering their inexperience.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: SAM BROWN 11/4 (Pulled Up)  2nd: Pym 11/4 (Pulled Up)

Sam Brown is expected to step forward again from his last win in a Grade 2 at Haycock over 2m4f on heavy ground. He defied a monster absence when winning easily on his chase debut over 3m at Lingfield previously, hit a bit of a flat spot at the top of the home straight over this shorter trip on this occasion but soon recovered and ran out a resounding winner. Talented in his youth, having beaten Lalor and Chef Des Obeaux in bumpers at Wincanton and Newbury in early 2017, he's been plagued with injuries since and was having just his second outing since winning over hurdles at Plumpton in December 2018. His jumping was by no means perfect, but he's got a serious engine and shapes as though there will be even better to come when returning to longer distances. Soft/heavy ground is the key to him, however, and although he's to be entered in both the RSA Chase and National Hunt Chase, he would bypass the festival and wait for Aintree or Punchestown should conditions not be in his favour.

After race Anthony Honeyball told us: "I thought he was in trouble turning in. He'd made mistakes, I was thinking I'd run him too quick and I thought the best he could do was keep on for third. But then his stamina came into it, he was a very good bumper horse and he has lots of stamina - he really gallops and soft ground is key. He's got a good brain and that was a proper race and that will do him good. He'll be entered in the RSA Chase but he'd probably need soft ground, otherwise he;d be tilting at windmills, and he'll be entered in the National Hunt Chase as well. If he doesn't get his ground at Cheltenham there is the Grade 1 race at Aintree and Punchestown." The 11/4 looks value...

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2.25: Keltbray Swinley Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) 2m7f180y ITV4

9/9: Returned 9/1 or shorter (100%)
8/9: Finished 5th or better last time out (89%)
8/9: Aged 8yo or older (89%)
7/9: Won 1 or 2 chase races previously (78%)
7/9: Raced at Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (4) last time out (78%)
5/7: Carried 11st or more (71%)
6/9: Won over at least 3m (fences) before (67%)
6/9: Raced at Ascot (fences) before (67%)
5/9: Aged in double-figures (56%)
4/9: Returned 4/1 or shorter (44%)
4/9: Irish bred (44%)
4/9: Carried 10st 13lbs or less in weight (44%)
3/9: Winning distance head or shorter (33%)
2/9: Won last time out (22%)
2/9: Winning Favourites (22%)

Winning favourites in handicap chases: 12-71 for 17% (-28.25)

Timeform 

A competitive handicap but ready preference is for DOMAINE DE L'ISLE, who is confidently expected to land a fourt-timer now he steps back up in trip having shown plenty of pluck to get up late over 21f here last month. Red Indian is highly respected after figuring prominently for a long way when fifth at Haydock, and Valtor is another with solid place prospects.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: BALLYOPTIC 10/1 (WINNER)  2nd: Valtor 6/1 (2nd)

Exacta: £56.30 & CSF: £53.91

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3.00: Give The Gift Of Ascot Annual Membership Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo+) 2m3½f ITV4

13/14: Won between 1-3 times over hurdles before (93%)
12/14: Ran within the last 5 weeks (86%)
10/14: Winning distance – 1 1/2 or less (71%)
..9/14: Aged either 5 or 6yo (64%)
..9/14: Won over 2m4f or further before (64%)
..8/14: Carried 10st 12lbs or less (57%)
..8/14: In the top 4 last time out (57%)
..8/14: Raced at season’s Cheltenham Festival (0 winners) (57%)
..8/14: Placed favourites (57%)
..6/14: Priced 9/1 or bigger (43%)
..6/14: Outside the top 3 in the betting (43%)
..5/14: Irish bred (36%)
..5/14: Double-figure price in the betting (36%)
..4/14: Ran at Ascot over hurdles before (29%)
..3/14: Winning favourite (1 joint) (21%)
..3/14: Raced at Sandown last time out (21%)
..2/14: Trained by Dr Richard Newland (14%)
..2/14: Trained by Paul Nicholls (14%)

Winning favourites in handicap hurdles: 11-56 for 20% (-20.38)

Timeform

 THE CON MAN is progressing well and still looks ahead of the handicapper, despite a 7lb rise for his Kelso win, so he's taken to come out on top. Prudhomme got his career quickly back on track on his handicap debut at Taunton and should prove better than his current rating, while Dorking Boy showed he's still a horse on the up at Huntingdon so is another to keep on the right side of.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: EDEN DU HOUX 6/1 (3rd)  2nd The Con Man 11/2 (5th)  3rd: Dorking Boy 8/1 (9th)

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3.35: Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1) 2m5f110y ITV4

17/17: Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously (100%)
16/17: Priced at 15/2 or shorter (94%)
15/17: Top 3 in the market (88%)
14/17: Did not win their next start (82%)
14/17: Ran within the last 7 weeks (82%)
10/13: Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting (77%)
13/17: Winning distance – 4 lengths or more (76%)
13/17: Favourites placed (76%)
13/17: Officially rated 157 or higher (76%)
11/17: Priced 2/1 or shorter (65%)
11/17: Winning favourites (65%)
..8/17: Won between 1-4 times over fences previously (47%)
..7/17: Unplaced in latest race (41%)
..7/17: Raced at Kempton (King George) last time out (41%)
..6/17: Won over fences at Ascot previously (35%)
..6/17: Won last race (35%)
..5/17: Ran in season’s Ryanair Chase (1 winner, Cue Card) later that year (29%)
..3/17: Raced at Cheltenham last time out (18%)
..3/17: Ridden by Barry Geraghty (18%)
..3/17: Trained by Paul Nicholls (18%)
..2/17: Trained by Alan King (12%)
..2/17: Trained by Nicky Henderson (12%)

2005 & 2006 run at Lingfield Park
Waiting Patiently won this race in 2018, Cyrname won the race in 2019

Winning favourites in non-handicap chases: 24-40 for 60% (+2.34)

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: CYRNAME 2/5 (Fell)   2nd: Riders On the Storm 7/2 (WINNER) 

It was in this race 12 months ago that Cyrname announced himself as one of the best NH performers in training, with his 17-length demolition of Waiting Patiently still fresh in the memory. He has since become the only horse to beat Altior over obstacles and, although he had to settle for second behind stablemate Clan Des Obeaux when tried over 3m in the King George, he possibly emerged with his reputation enhanced. He should be in a different league to this lot and while Riders Onthe Storm hasn't put a foot wrong since joining Nigel Twiston-Davies, Janika may be the one to chase him home.

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Today's Pacafi: click here

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