The Racing Horse trends are not uniform, some might consider them disorganised, but if you believe as we do, mathematics are the governing force of sports betting then each and every single line produced has some sort of intrinsic value! Not all lines carry the same weight but each carries weight.
In isolation a single trend is of limited value but when you have a number the value turns comprehensive! Remember, the ultimate merit/benefit/significance of the trends is for filtration purposes before we sort contenders from the pretenders. Trainer form, optimum ground and perceived value has still to be factored into any bet, but we have surgically removed two perennial saboteurs from our betting slip - hunch and hype!
If we look at the first race at the Festival SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE we know the last 18 winners had been foaled between March and May. Is it a coincidence not one of the last 18 winners had been foaled in January or February? We cannot be sure but given this statistic would you bet a horse born in February?
18/18: Foaled between March & May (100%)
18/18: Between 2-7 runs that season (100%)
18/18: Won over hurdles previously (100%)
15/15: Rested at least 16 days (100%)
15/15: Won at 2m – 2m1f (100%)
15/15: Raced over 2m -2m2f last time out (100%)
The last 18 winners had between 2-7 runs that season meaning not one succeeded with just one run under its belt. This trend infers even the best horse needs to be fully fit to trouble the judge. A question - if the favourite was foaled in February and won his only race impressively by 15l would you take 9/2?
The trends confirm all winners in the last 18 years won over hurdles previously, a trend hard to argue with seeing as we dealing with Novice hurdlers. Pundits often use the phase 'hitting the bar' but for non-handicap Championship Races there is only winning form.
Asking a horse to back up within less than 16 days seems unfair as well as daft irrespective of form, once again he has to beat a big field of prepared and hardy opponents (trained by the best NH trainers in the world) who have been specifically targeted for this race.
Trends 5 & 6 explain themselves and in truth the top six trends that show 99/99 for 100% is a little obvious though still important, there will be good horses in this race who will not match these figures and in effect compromise their chances of winning. It is the next 11 trends that probably hold the key to who wins the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.
17/18: Sent off no bigger than 25/1 (94%)
17/18: Won at least a Class 3 contest (94%)
17/18: Contested at least a Class 2 race (94%)
17/18: In first three last time out (94%)
14/15: Ran 2-4 times since October (93%)
14/15: Ran within the last 60 days (93%)
14/15: Ran 2-5 times over hurdles (93%)
23/25: Raced in same calendar year (92%)
11/12: Came from top 6 in the betting (92%)
41/45: Won by 5 or 6yo (91%)
20/22: Won at least 50% of career hurdle races (91%)
Could an outsider priced 33/1 or more win this particular race, the mathematics says it is possible but doubtful. The trends also suggest the winner contested at least a Class 2 race and at won a Class 3, furthermore it finished in the first three last time out. From this band we can say for relative certainty the winner would already have proved winning class. Another question - would you back a winner of a Class 4 that finished fifth last time out at 14/1?
The next four trends advise us to back a Novice who had raced in the calendar year, ran 2-5 times over hurdles in total but 2-4 times since October and one who had been rested between 21 and 60 days maximum.
Finally, the trends insist we find a 5 or 6yo from the top six in the betting and one who had won at least 50% of its races.
We will use this piece to filter, then score the contenders from the pretenders and post here and by email alert once we have the confirmed runners and riders. Just to confirm the trends/numbers are very strong for this race with the top 17 trends showing 205/221 for 93%. It is our humble opinion any nomination considered should fall within this bandwidth, we will shadow this first race as closely as we can and report each stage to members.
UPDATE Friday 21 February 2020: We can confirm SHISHKIN at 11/4 (general) is our winning nomination and Pacafi, and Asterion Forglonge at 6/1 (William Hill & Coral) is the main danger (saver) assuming this is his race as both are owned by Mrs J Donnelly. Both horses MEET ALL 17 TRENDS and meets them with a bit to spare.
The Racing Horse Verdict
1st: SHISHKIN 11/4 2nd: Asterion Forlonge 6/1 3rd: tbc
Nicky Henderson confirmed: "Shishkin you would like to think was one of our best chances and he has looked very good so far and is a genuine two-miler. The Supreme is a nice race to win if you can and it gets the ball rolling and the pressures off a bit. I think he is very good, and he has looked good in his bumper and in two novice hurdles he looked very efficient. He has been visually impressive in all he does, and he doesn’t seem to lack experience and races very professionally. You can press a button on him, and it works. The track should be fine for him – with those sort of horses they are great movers and they have great balance and it shouldn’t bother him."
Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a math-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a math-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.
The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.