Kempton Racing Trends (Saturday 22 February 2020)

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The Racing Horse looks at five races on Saturday at Kempton Park and offer our RACECOURSE TEMPLATE, RACING TRENDS and astute BETTING ADVICE. With Cheltenham looming it is hardly surprising to see the weekend racing lacking quality but this meeting has been an important Festival pointer in recent years, and the Kingwell Hurdle, called off at Wincanton on Saturday, has now been added to proceedings.

KEMPTON RACECOURSE TEMPLATE

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1.15: Betway Pendil Novices' Chase (Grade 2) 2m4f110y ITV

13/15: French (8) or Irish (5) bred (87%)
12/15: Favourites finished in the top 3 (80%)
12/15: Returned 5/2 or shorter (80%)
11/15: Aged 6 or 7yo (73%)
11/15: Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (73%)
11/15: Ran in the last 5 weeks (73%)
10/15: Trained by Paul Nicholls (won 7 of the last 10) (67%)
..9/15: Won between 1-2 times over fences before (60%)
..8/15: Won last time out (53%)
..8/15: Winning favourites (53%)

The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 13/8
Prominent racers are usually favoured here
Winning favourites in non-handicap chases: 32-55 for 58% (+2.67)

TIMEFORM

COMMANCHE RED was impressive when making his third chase start a winning one over C&D in December, his jumping looking a particularly useful asset. He has more on his plate back in graded company but is well worth his place on that evidence and gets the nod. Who Dares Wins and Master Tommytucker are others fancied to feature.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: COMMANCHE RED 5/2 (3rd) 2nd: Southfield Stone 5/1 (2nd)

1.50: Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m ITV4

15/16: Priced 8/1 or shorter (94%)
14/16: Came from the top 3 in the betting (88%)
14/16: Placed in the top 3 last time out (88%)
13/16: Won no more than once over hurdles in the UK (81%)
12/16: Raced within the last 7 weeks (75%)
12/16: Ran in Triumph Hurdle (3 winners) (75%)
12/16: Placed favourites (75%)
12/16: Won over 2m (hurdles) before (75%)
10/16: Carrying either a 4lb or 7lb penalty (67%)
..9/16: Won last time out (56%)
..8/16: Winning favourites (50%)
..6/16: French bred (38%)
..5/16: Irish bred (31%)
..4/16: Trained by Paul Nicholls (25%)
..4/16: Trained by Alan King (won two of last 3 runnings) (25%)
..4/16: Trained by Nicky Henderson (25%)
..3/16: Went onto win that season’s Triumph Hurdle (19%)

The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park
Winning favourites in non-handicap hurdles: 62-123 for 50% (-6.70)

TIMEFORM

FUJIMOTO FLYER and Solo both figure fairly prominently in ante-post lists for the Triumph at Cheltenham and are probably the pair to focus on, with slight preference for the former who comfortably saw off a subsequent Grade 2/3 winner at Auteuil when last seen in September. Doncaster listed winner Fantastic Ms Fox may prove best of the remainder.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: SOLO 13/8 (WIN) 2nd: Fujimoto Flyer 2/1 (2nd) 3rd: Fantastic Ms Fox 10/1 (4th)

Exacta: £5.30 & CSF: £4.69

2.25: Betway Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) 1m7f65y ITV

16/16: Raced within the last 8 weeks (100%)
15/16: Came from the top 3 in the betting (94%)
14/16: Priced 4/1 or shorter (88%)
14/16: Favourites to finish in the top 3 (88%)
14/16: Won at least 3 times over hurdles before (88%)
12/16: Ran in season’s Champion Hurdle (1 winner Katchit) (75%)
12/16: Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (75%)
10/16: Aged 5 or 6yo (63%)
..9/16: Rated 155 or higher (56%)
..8/16: Winning favourites (50%)
..8/16: Won last time out (50%)
..6/16: Raced at Sandown last time out (38%)
..4/16: Trained by Alan King (25%)
..1/16: Went onto win World Hurdle (Inglis Drever) (6%)

Winning favourites in non-handicap hurdles: 62-123 for 50% (-6.70)

TIMEFORM

SONG FOR SOMEONE has taken his form to a new level in handicaps this season and this could turn out to be a good opportunity to record a Grade 2 victory. Ch'tibello must concede weight all round but he's still a big threat, while it will be interesting to see what Elgin can do on this belated return to action.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: CH'TIBELO 3/1 (3rd) 2nd: Song For Someone 3/1 (WINNER)

3.02: Sky Bet Dovecote Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

13/14: Ran within the last 5 weeks (93%)
13/14: Won over 2m (hurdles) before (93%)
12/14: Never raced over hurdles at Kempton before (86%)
11/14: Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before (79%)
11/14: Came from the top 3 in the betting (79%)
10/14: Placed favourites (71%)
..9/14: Aged either 4 or 5yo (64%)
..8/14: Won last time out (57%)
..6/14: Ran at season’s Cheltenham Festival (0 winners) (43%)
..5/14: Winning favourites (36%)
..4/14: French bred (29%)
..4/14: Trained by Alan King (29%)
..4/14: Trained by Nicky Henderson (29%)
..3/14: Ridden by Barry Geraghty (21%)
..3/14: Trained by Paul Nicholls (21%)
..2/14: Returned a double-figure price (14%)

The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park
Winning favourites in non-handicap hurdles: 62-123 for 50% (-6.70)

TIMEFORM

HIGHWAY ONE O TWO put up a dominant display at Plumpton last time, recording a good timefigure in the process, and he is taken to make light of a step up in class and complete the hat-trick. Ex-Flat performer Buzz has made a smooth transition to hurdling and is an obvious threat, with Kid Commando expected to leave the bare form of his debut win in this sphere well behind.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: BUZZ 2/1 (4th) 2nd: Highway One O Two 9/2 (WINNER) 3rd: Faire Part Sivola 10/1 (6th)

3.35: Betway Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) 3m ITV4

15/17: Finished in top 5 last time out (88%)
14/17: Aged 9yo or younger (82%)
14/17: Rated 139 or higher (82%)
12/17: Raced within the last 8 weeks (71%)
11/17: Won a class 2 chase or better before (65%)
11/17: Carried 10st 13lbs or more (65%)
11/17: Returned 8/1 or shorter (65%)
11/17: Came from top 4 in the betting (65%)
11/17: Winning distance – 2 lengths or more (65%)
11/17: Won over at least 3m (fences) before (65%)
10/17: Raced within the last 4 weeks (59%)
10/17: Rated between 139 and 150 (59%)
..8/17: Carried 11st 5lbs or more (47%)
..7/17: Won at least 4 times over fences before (41%)
..7/17: Won last time out (41%)
..6/17: Aged 8yo (35%)
..5/17: French bred (29%)
..4/17: Ran in season’s Grand National (all unplaced) (24%)
..4/17: Raced at Cheltenham last time out (24%)
..3/17: Ridden by Paddy Brennan (18%)
..3/17: Ran at season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner) (18%)
..2/17: Winning favourites (1 joint) (12%)
..2/17: Ridden by Richard Johnson (won 5 times in all) (12%)
..2/17: Trained by Tom George (12%)
..2/17: Trained by Neil Mulholland (won 2 of the last 3) (12%)
..2/17: Trained by Philip Hobbs (won 4 times in all) (12%)
..2/17: Ran in King George VI Chase last time out (12%)

The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park
Favourites in handicap chases: 39-109 for 36% (-4.97)

TIMEFORM

ADRIEN DU PONT catches the eye off 6lbs lower than when third in this last year and is preferred to his stablemate Black Corton, who boasts a good track record and went close off a similar mark in the Galway Plate earlier in the season. Talkischeap has had wind surgery since his underwhelming reappearance and it would be no surprise to see him resume his progression and play a prominent role.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: TALKISCHEAP 20/1 (PU lost shoe) 2nd: Black Corton 8/1 (2nd) 3rd: Adrien Du Pont 7/1 (6th)

Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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