Trainer form coming into Cheltenham

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our powerful RACECOURSE TEMPLATE, RACING TRENDS and BETTING ADVICE for every race of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival contained in a made to measure 35-piece presentation. It is our aim to help/prepare/inform our members by giving only pertinent information needed for the four-day spectacular!

This Home Page will build/update on a daily basis until Tuesday 10 March 2020.

2020 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL (Home Page)

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FEBRUARY 2020
Nicky Henderson:  20-56  for 36%   NA 25% (+11)
Paul Nicholls:    31-103 for 30%   NA 23%  (+7)
Philip Hobbs:      9-34  for 28%   NA 18% (+10)
Fergal O'Brien:    8-37  for 22%   NA 16%  (+6)
Willie Mullins:   17-102 for 17%   NA 28% (-11)
Gordon Elliott:   15-100 for 15%   NA 15%  (+0)
Colin Tizzard:     6-43  for 14%   NA 14%  (+0)
Henry De Bromhead: 6-46  for 13%   NA 15%  (-2)
Alan King:         5-40  for 13%   NA 17%  (-4)
Dan Skelton:       9-74  for 12%   NA 19%  (-7)
Joseph O'Brien:    5-43  for 12%   NA 13%  (-1)
N Twiston-Davies:  5-50  for 10%   NA 15%  (-5)

MAKE NO MISTAKE the 12 trainers on our 'guidance board' will win the vast majority of all the races at the Festival. Stepping outside these numbers makes little sense from a betting point of view and almost certain to induce a loss. Be reminded, the trainers named above will have some bigger priced winners that are not close to being favourite.

The Racing Horse shows their February results and this gives us a litmus test to trainer form and helps us with a sense of focus.  Looking at a single month period compromised by atrocious weather conditions is not going to reveal everything but it is our belief trainer form is the single most important factor on a betting slip!

The NA refers to the national average strike rate of the trainer, so the plus or minus figure in brackets tell us if they are doing better or worse etc...

Our table shows some interesting strike rates and I think it is fair to say the 'big sulk' that is Nigel Twiston-Davies is out of form with his horses and looking at his intended runners cannot see an obvious chance. Comparing his figures against Nicky Henderson shows a strike rate disparity of 26% and the significance is obvious!

We had not realised that Joseph O'Brien only strikes at 13%, memory had him as a 15% or 16% trainer. Whichever way one looks at the Nicky Henderson figures it proves his horses are in great form and that is good news for this author and Pentland Hills! The surprise package on our guidance board is Fergal O'Brien, so when it comes to sorting contenders from pretenders his form and in particular his course form must be factored into thought processes.

Our piece on the BIG FOUR remains our betting starting block again this year and although an obvious piece of information it remains of paramount importance and well worth a reminder!

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