The Cheltenham Festival 2020 (Home Page)

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The Racing Horse offers our powerful RACECOURSE TEMPLATE, RACING TRENDS and BETTING ADVICE for every race bare one of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival contained in a made to measure 35-piece presentation. It is our aim to help/prepare/inform our members by giving only pertinent information needed for the four-day spectacular!

Official Going Old C and H: Soft, Good to Soft (in places) Cross Country: Soft, Heavy (in places) New: C and H: Soft, Good to Soft (in places)

 

Cheltenham Festival is the largest and best National Hunt event in the world with about 260,000 spectators and participants from all over the world, and The Racing Horse will be there to watch Pentland Hills compete and hopefully win the Champion Hurdle.

The purpose of our HOME PAGE is to link all of our 35 pages together. First, we look at the performance of the different disciplines in both handicap and non-handicap National Hunt Races at this course over the past five years. Generally, favourites in handicaps have a poor record at this course striking at just 20%, that's 20% less than favourites in non-handicap hurdles.

We highlight the trainers and jockeys most likely to be involved given their performances at the course. For the festival we are duty bound to look at the Irish raiders and particularly the W P Mullins and G Elliott stables. The day before racing we will look at each and every runner from these two stables and those of N Henderson and P Nicholls and provide relative comment.

The Racecourse Templates are underpinned with Racing Trends. The profiling of races help sift/filter the contenders from the pretenders and gives an overview of what type of entry combination are most likely to prosper. Equally, it candidly reveals those carrying negative traits making it an essential tool/information for layers.

Finally, we offer our astute betting advice. This trilateral approach or ASSEMBLAGE as we call it, offers absolute relevance and because of its importance/weight this feature is now part of the service we provide our members on a weekly basis. There is no doubting the power of the assemblage. Principally it removes guesswork, randomness and hunch and replaces them with facts and mathematics! The information helps the reader find winners, or at least give them every opportunity of doing so! Failing that we hope our efforts entertains and adds to their enjoyment of the festival by being better informed.

CHELTENHAM RACECOURSE TEMPLATE

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)         HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

Hurdle:   51-120 for 43%  (+2.70)    22-104  for 21% (-17.21)
Chase:    53-129 for 41%  (-5.59)    24-124  for 19% (-32.38)
NHF:       6-28  for 21% (-10.25)     0-0    for  - 
Total:   110-277 for 40% (-13.14)    46-229  for 20% (-49.58)

TOP TRAINERS at Cheltenham (past 5 years)
 1 N Henderson:      51 from 413 for 12% 
 2 P Nicholls:       42 from 376 for 11%
 3 W P Mullins:      33 from 301 for 11%     
 4 N Twiston-Davies: 31 from 291 for 11% 
 5 Philip Hobbs:     30 from 255 for 12%
 6 Colin Tizzard:    27 from 265 for 10%
 7 Gordon Elliott:   26 from 191 for 14%
 8 Dan Skelton:      22 from 227 for 10%
 9 Fergal O'Brien:   21 from 166 for 13%
10 Alan King:        20 from 180 for 11%  

TOP JOCKEYS at Cheltenham (past 5 seasons)
 1 B Geraghty:       41 from 241 for 17%
 2 R Johnson:        35 from 294 for 12%
 3 N de Boinville:   28 from 139 for 20%
 4 S Twiston-Davies: 27 from 289 for  9%
 5 Aidan Coleman:    23 from 219 for 11%
 6 Paddy Brennan:    22 from 193 for 11% 
 7 Harry Skelton:    20 from 176 for 11%
 8 Tom Scudamore:    19 from 219 for  9%
 9 Harry Cobden:     18 from 132 for 14%
10 Davy Russell:     14 from  99 for 14%

The BIG FOUR

INTERESTING NUMBERS

RATIONALE & RESULTS for 2019

CHELTENHAM RATINGS explained

How helpful was our information last year?

CURREN TRAINER FORM (February - 9 March)

MATHEMATICS, BIAS & COMMENT

Tuesday 10 March 2020 (Day One)

1.30: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE

2.10: ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY

2.50: FESTIVAL TROPHY HANDICAP

3.30: CHAMPION HURDLE

4.10: OLBG MARES' HURDLE

4.50: NOVICES' HANDICAP CHASE

5.30: NATIONAL HUNT CHASE CHALLENGE CUP

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Wednesday 11 March 2020 (Day Two)

1.30: BALLYMORE NOVICES' HURDLE

2.10: RSA CHASE

2.50: CORAL CUP

3.30: CHAMPION CHASE

4.10: Race not covered...

4.50: FRED WINTER HANDICAP HURDLE

5.30: CHAMPION BUMPER

 

Thursday 12 March 2020 (Day Three)

1.30: MARSH NOVICES' CHASE

2.10: PERTEMPS HANDICAP HURDLE FINAL

2.50: RYANAIR CHASE

3.30: STAYERS HURDLE

4.10: FESTIVAL PLATE

4.50: MARES NOVICE HURDLE

5.30: KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP

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Friday 13 March 2020 (Day Four)

1.30: .TRIUMPH HURDLE

2.10: COUNTY HURDLE

2.50: ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE

3.30: GOLD CUP

4.10: FOXHUNTER CHASE

4.50: GRAND ANNUAL CHASE

5.30: MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL HURDLE.

These pieces will continually be updated as information becomes available. Last year we identified the poor form of Colin Tizzard coming into the Festival and proved right, he left with just one second place. On Sunday we will look at the top 10 trainers from our Racecourse Template and report their form for February and the first week of March. We will have to be a bit careful about numbers as the weather has disrupted a lot of the trainer's plans but it will give us an idea of how much their horses are in form.

For example, Gordon Elliott disappointed slightly last year (in our opinion and relatively speaking) given his backers and the number of quality of horses sent to the Festival. His national average is 15% so we would probably want him to strike at least at that rate coming into this year's Festival, he is 3-12 for 25% in the last week and had 4 second places so above his average. February shows 15-100 for 15% (+33.77), this suggests things are OK for this trainer.

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Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a math-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a math-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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