Value is King

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse has been talking again about the importance of mathematics is in horse racing betting, and take this opportunity to repeat an obvious but critical message. Seasoned bettors will be aware of those key areas we address though less likely to employ them. Apologies to regular members for going over well-trodden ground but as with most things a little reinforcement might help all of us going forward. There are many more but we offer 10 points below which constitutes the building blocks the professionals use when attempting to profit from sports betting.

  • Betting to win should always take place WITHOUT emotion and treated as a business ALL of the time with NO lapses. There is NO room within this mindset to bet randomly or for fun - if it does not harm your chances it will undermine them.
  • Making a profit from betting on horses is difficult but not for the reasons most people think. Having the correct mentality is absolutely essential. A mentality equipped with good information, attitude, determination, repeatable mathematical process and probability are still not enough if you do not have the discipline, emotional skills and money management needed to underpin them. Betting can be a solitary and friendless place, adverse results can seriously affect the health and well-being of the individual.
  • Another prerequisite is a set aside a bank only to be used for wagering. It must NOT be used for anything else.
  • A strategy/system with a staking plan is needed that suits the individual bettor. There are not two bettors on earth who have the same preferences or risk versus reward mentality.
  • Finding perceived value in a bet then wagering at the best price available is not always easy. But, without finding PERCEIVED VALUE one CANNOT win from betting. This represents the biggest task because finding winners is not enough. Most punters concentrate on finding winners regardless of whether a price represents value or not, professionals identify horses whose price is bigger than it should be. For that to happen something must be in place first.
  • There is absolutely no room for brand loyalty in the betting business and if the bettor does not have multiple sportsbooks plus a Betfair account they are not serious about winning!
  • Each and every bet must be RECORDED/LOGGED, there must not be any lapses or airbrushing and logging losing bets are as important as any winning bets. Nothing must be left to memory - it will tell lies. On a personal note I have a comments box and find this informative/helpful when reading at a later date.
  • LUCK has no part in betting, there is only science and mathematics. The use of the word is futile in a betting context.
  • BET SOBER and whilst this is an obvious statement we have fallen foul of this rule ourselves. Under the influence I opposed Peeping Fawn with Mandesha in the Nassau Stakes 2007 at Goodwood and it cost me plenty. It took me a number of weeks to banish/forgive my stupidity, and confess one or two subsequent bets were compromised. Emotions can get the best of all of us, and bad decisions can be made from those emotions.
  • Bookmakers do not want serious bettors and  lose most of their money from SINGLES. Muliple betting and professional betting are not compatible. Regarding bookmakers we are now seriously experiencing restrictions on some of our accounts so must prepare for 100% betting exchanges. At the moment we bet 50% with the bookmakers and 50% with Betfair but believe in five years we will be unable to use bookmakers in a sensible sense.

Few succeed yet gambling has never been rocket science and it is not even complicated, so whilst it’s very difficult to make a living from betting, it’s not impossible. Apart from finding perceived value it is about 100% discipline, attitude, determination and sensible mathematical practices assisted wherever possible by good relative information and knowledge. How one approaches gambling and what their expectation levels are, need to be realistic/feasible. Very few are able to administer these principles and the reason why most fail. The industry figures show over 98% of bettors lose, we are part of the 2%.

The main areas of failure are easy to identify. The vast majority of punters are lazy then fail to use any form of a capped and set aside bank, they bet randomly and they fall foul to the emotional issues. These emotional issues have affected and threatened every single bettor that has ever wagered (including the author). These factors have to be removed or resisted so use our knowledge and experience condensed into a strategy called the Pacafi. The word Pacafi is an acronym for 'professional, calculated, filtered investment.' The strategy represents the complete antipathy to random wagering!

There are dozens of websites making outrageous/silly claims and offering betting tips for a fee claiming they have proven records. If these tipsters did as well as they claimed why share the tips? In any case, by the time one receives the information the price will be gone and the punter will back the horse at lower odds and not perceived value! This is why we ask our members to absorb our figures and rationale in context then make up their own mind.

The reasoning behind the PACAFI is to find horses competing with a winning chance but as many negative traits as humanly possible removed. Random factors are beyond anyone's control but to invite negatives to a bet compounds matters. Currently we identify five key areas in our composite that must be satisfied even before we even consider a bet. Once again these areas are mathematically driven.


Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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