QUADRIPOINTS & the PACAFI

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The majority of betting advice systems and strategies that come on to the market are either bogus or not fit for purpose! Some sources deliberately procure false hope or worse, others unintentionally enlist flawed or less important features giving false credence. Inevitably, given the careless and lazy nature of the average punter, most will be fleeced then returned to a place of disillusionment (again). With the above in mind, it is our belief serious bettors should find their own way. The Racing Horse offers a practical pathway borne out of mathematics and for just 33p per day members will receive daily numbers that MUST help in the filtering of pretenders from the contenders. But first, who are we and what is our approacch?

The Racing Horse approach to horse race betting is simple, honest and transparent, heavily supported by mathematics and its explicit pertinence. Before considering a wager we employ essential prerequisites with argument weighting. Organically this operation produces a common sense rationale which makes up the FOUR CORNERS of our betting slip. This appropriate raison d’être was vital in 1950, valid now and will be relevant in 2050. We take this opportunity to validate our important message and reaffirm those quadripoints in order of importance!

1. TRAINER FORM
2. FITNESS & REQUISITE CLASS
3. OPTIMUM GROUND & DISTANCE CONDITIONS
4. JOCKEY COMPETENCE/ABILITY

The most important part of any bet ever made is the form of the trainer. The sum of the other parts are not as important and this component remains the cornerstone of any of our wagers! Acknowledging trainer statistics and the mathematics that accompany them before making a win bet single is obligatory. This decisive indicative test assists in removing negative traits, randomness, opinion and bias, it also reveals how well the stable’s horses are, delivering an up-to-the-minute litmus test on their well being.

Though we recognise there are occasions when a trainer looks to be returning to form after being on the cold list, we only deal in and accept winning percentages/strike rate which are relative to an individual trainer. As a general rule, if the trainer has a national average of 16% we would expect him to be hitting those numbers in the past month or so to qualify for nomination.

There any amount of random factors that can affect a result and it takes small margins to win most races. These issues are more likely to be compounded if the horse is not close too or fully wound up! Furthermore, if one accepts that handicap racing forms more than half of all races on the cards of UK race meetings a few pounds of improvement or decay can mean the difference between winning and finishing down the field.

Each horse has a potential ability level, whether they achieve it is another matter. The better the horse is trained and looked after the more it is likely to achieve, but it is accepted that genetics and skeletal soundness are factors outside the trainer’s remit. Finding the bandwidth to which each horse can aspire needs a trainer totally in tune with his charge and, whilst some achieve to various degrees of success, most trainers fail in this regard. Based on this inconsistency we only trust recent form, we never depend on what a horse did 14 months ago, preferring form from the last 2 months.

Regarding trust, there are various rating services available but in a general sense we lean on the Racing Post Ratings (RPR). When making a wager we want our horse to carry the best or very close to best RPR. They are an excellent starting point in two ways, first they help in the standard of races where there are no official handicap marks and, as a second opinion against that of the official handicapper. Conversely, we accept the BHA handicapper mark is relative to this day as opposed to the RPR which is adjusted to the weight carried in today's race against the best bit of form shown in the last 12 months. Context has to be applied.

We were very fortunate to spend a day with Monty Roberts (The Horse Whisperer) and he gave us lots of information on horses and we adhere our betting to his doctrine. He told us that every horse that has ever been born or ever will be born has optimum ground conditions. The onus rests solely on the bettor to find out before making an investment what that is!

Trainer Mick Channon (along with some others) disagree with Monty, he foolishly repeats good horses go on any ground. If he was right his Flat horses could win over hurdles in winter ground, horses could handle Southwell equally well to Lingfield and Enable would have beaten Waldgeist in the Arc. His comments are nonsense, the reality is some horses handle adverse conditions better or have something in hand, but they always have a preference, the genetics dictate it. By the way, Channon has sent just 188 horses to Southwell but 1006 horses to Lingfield...

As with ground conditions all horses have an optimum distance bandwidth which can change as the horse ages. We know this will be decided on several factors including confirmation, how the horse has performed at home in different scenarios, and the preferred distance of the horses parents and other relatives. This is another area where the onus is on the bettor to reason the above with what they have seen for themselves on the track but whilst a grey area, one to mathematically-measure and consider.

So our intended wager has a tick in every box and a winning chance looks obvious, why would anyone compromise the wager once the horse arrives at the course after weeks/months of schooling and training? We know that trainers are not duty bound to give the ride to the best jockey available! They might use an apprentice, someone who is contracted, rides work or a favoured son. The owner might have some input or the decision might be political. But the bettor has no such restrictions. It is hard to measure or be scientific about the importance of jockeyship, but they are the trainer’s conduit/connection to the horse and it is often their decisions that dictate the result and a consequent profit and loss.

The quadripoints listed probably represent 90%+ in importance towards a winning bet. Of course stable shenanigans, course configuration, draw and track bias, pace in the race, distance, weight, breeding and more can influence the result but the big four represents a rock solid core and serious starting point to any bet. This is where we part with most systems and strategies!

We cannot imagine placing a bet without all of the core elements satisfied and the mathematics that accompany them. If any of the information is of interest to the reader please contact us and give us your views. A lot of bettors will not see racing and betting to win the same way we do and we appreciate that, but we are part of a 2% that wins from betting.

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Today's Pacafi: click here

Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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