2000 Guineas Stakes at Newmarket (Rowley Mile)

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The Racing Horse looks at the key trends for this year's 2000 Guineas scheduled to be run on Saturday 6 June 2020 in association with our RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for NEWMARKET (Rowley Mile)

This race is the first of the five ‘classic races’ – the others being the 1000 Guineas (for the fillies), Epsom Derby, Epsom Oaks and the St Leger. The Guineas winner is guaranteed a career at stud and all the major players amongst the trainer and ownership ranks are desperate to win it. The race can certainly produce some big odds winners but 12 of the last 18 came from the top three in the betting and we have taken the current favourite Pinatubo to win this year's version.

RACING TRENDS for 2000 GUINEAS at NEWMARKET (Rowley Mile)

18/18: Finished in top 3 last time out (100%)
16/18: Won over at least 7f before (89%)
16/18: Won a Group race before (89%)
16/18: Won between 2-5 times before (89%)
15/18: Drawn in stall 12 or lower (83%)

14/18: Won last time out (78%)
13/18: Winning distance – less than 2 lengths (72%)
13/18: First run of the season (72%)
12/18: Came from the top 3 in the betting (67%)
11/18: Placed favourites (61%)
11/18: Won just 2 or 3 times in their career before (61%)
11/18: Won by an Irish-based yard (61%)
..6/10: Came from stalls 6 or lower (60%)
10/18: Irish bred (56%)
..9/18: Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (10 wins in total) (50%)
..7/18: Drawn in stalls 1 or 3 (39%)
..7/18: Won over a mile before (39%)
..6/18: Winning favourites (33%)
..5/18: Won at Newmarket (Rowley) before (28%)
..4/18: Ran in the Epsom Derby (2 winners) (22%)
..4/18: Won Dewhurst Stakes the previous season (22%)
..3/18: Ran at the Curragh last time out (33%)

The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 10/1

Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019 whilst Frankie Dettori rode the winner in 1996, 1999 & 2016.

WINNING FAVOURITES in 3yo NON-HANDICAPS at NEWMARET (Rowley Mile) show 42-111 for 38% (-6.88) over the past 5 years. Our top 5 trends return an aggregate of 81-90 for 90%.

PREVIOUS WINNERS of the 2000 GUINEAS

2019: Magna Grecia (11/1)
2018: Saxon Warrior (3/1)
2017: Churchill (6/4f)
2016: Galileo Gold (14/1)
2015: Gleneagles (4/1f)
2014: Night Of Thunder (40/1)
2013: Dawn Approach (11/8f)
2012: Camelot (15/8f)
2011: Frankel (1/2f)
2010: Makfi (33/1)
2009: Sea The Stars (8/1)
2008: Henrythenavigator (11/1)
2007: Cockney Rebel (25/1)
2006: George Washington (6/4f)
2005: Footstepsinthesand (13/2)
2004: Haafhd (11/2)
2003: Refuse to Bend (9/2)
2002: Rock of Gibraltar (9/1)

On his final start, Pinatubo won the G1 Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket, in effect unifying the titles of British and Irish champion juvenile. But, to do it he had to overcome a track bias by winning on the slower ground in the centre of the Rowley Mile. That two-length victory over Arizona (unlucky fifth in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf) did not rate so highly as his Irish performance, but he again showed tremendous tactical weapons in moving up through the gears to win with great authority.

PINATUBO is a Pacafi

The Racing Horse has backed PINATUBO to win the 2000 Guineas. The current ban on racing has not affected the unbeaten son of Shamardal's training schedule as he was always being prepared to go straight for the Qipco 2,000 Guineas on 2 May.

The exceptional colt Pinatubo has been recognised as the best juvenile in Europe for 25 years (rated higher than the legendary Frankel as a juvenile) following the publication of the 2019 European two-year-old classifications on Wednesday, 22 January 2020. During a brilliant unbeaten season, the Charlie Appleby-trained Shamardal colt achieved a rating of 128, the highest mark since Celtic Swing in 1994.

Pinatubo’s six victories last year included two superb G1 successes – in the Vincent O’Brien National Stakes at the Curragh, Ireland, and the Darley Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket. The homebred also posted a scintillating display in the G2 Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood and smashed the seven-furlong course juvenile record at Royal Ascot when taking the Listed Chesham Stakes in dominant fashion. He was awarded a rating of 128 for his comprehensive win in the Vincent O’Brien National Stakes, when he stormed to a commanding nine-length verdict over Armory.

The British Horseracing Authority's lead two-year-old Handicapper Graeme Smith said: "Pinatubo looked a potentially outstanding two-year-old when thrashing a competitive field in the Vintage Stakes and his next performance in the National Stakes was breathtaking – the kind you rarely see in top company – as he powered nine lengths clear of Armory and Arizona in a top-class time. This was one of the great two-year-old performances, and the best by any two-year-old in the last 25 years."

Of course, nobody can be absolutely sure any horse has trained on from two to three but we note the size of him on his debut at Wolverhampton in May to his last run at Newmarket in October and can conclusively confirm he looked far bigger across the shoulders and chest. He was not protected on favoured ground winning on standard, good and soft, and his last win at Newmarket it looked like he raced on the worst part of the track compared to Arizona who had looked particularly well before the race. That win told us he was not only class but tough. Is the 6/5 price perceived value, we believe it is!

Godolphin Comments

Champion juvenile colt for 2019; made a winning start over 6f at Wolverhampton and took step up to Listed company in his stride when landing the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom on Oaks day; upped his level again when landing the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot over 7f; confirmed himself a top 2yo when taking the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood by 5l before gaining a career-best RPR of 128 when winning the National Stakes by 9l at the Curragh in September; made it 6-6 for his 2yo campaign when landing the Dewhurst Stakes (7f, soft)in October by 2l; started 2020 as warm favourite for the 2000 Guineas.

Pleased me with his work - Charlie Appleby

Charlie Appleby believes last season's juvenile sensation Pinatubo is bigger and stronger as the unbeaten son of Sharmadal prepares to embark on his highly anticipated Classic campaign, starting in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas.

Charlie Appleby has since told us: ""At this time of the year, the question everybody is asking is 'has he trained on?' We're not going to have conclusive proof until the Guineas, but my gut feeling is that he has. No buttons will be pressed until the big day but from what we're seeing at home, he's gone the right way. You can also tell he is an experienced racehorse now. He goes about his business professionally, and nothing fazes him. He has grown and strengthened over winter. I think the mile is going to be his trip and I believe that because of his mental attitude. He's a relaxed character, and if he was later asked to step up in trip, I think he has the right mindset for it. As for his physical attributes, he won six races as a juvenile, and three of them were on three of Britain's most challenging courses – Epsom, Goodwood and Newmarket. His athleticism is a key asset. He's pleased me in his work in preparation for the Guineas and, provided there are no hiccups, I think he'll give a very good account of himself."

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Today's Pacafi: click here

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