Royal Ascot (Home Page)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

This year's Royal Ascot is going ahead despite the corona virus pandemic, albeit behind closed doors but that will not stop our enjoyment, in fact, without the peripheral prattle it will be better. 

The highly anticipated event kicks off on Tuesday 16 June and will host a total of 36 races across five days of glorious horse racing action. There are a number of changes and alterations from previous years, with some races returning from past events and others being moved from their regular slots. There will be seven races staged on the first four days with eight on the final card.

The Racing Trends will be compromised to varying degrees because horses are either racing first time up or making a seasonal re-appearance, so a full-on race trends approach may not be the best option, the suggestion here is to marry them with the leading trainers named in our Racecourse Template. Mathematics confirms what we already know - they have skill and quality of horse to prepare for this unique situation, and over 36 races will dominate proceedings.

ASCOT RACECOURSE TEMPLATE

NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)      HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

2yo:   23-78  for 29% (-16.64)     4-4   for 100%  (+5.20)
3yo:   28-72  for 39%  (-1.82)    31-103 for  30%  (+0.16)
4yo+:  30-82  for 37%  (-8.29)    40-123 for  33% (+40.83)
Total: 81-232 for 33% (-26.74)    75-230 for  33% (+46.19)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at ASCOT for 2019
John Gosden:    11 wins from 59 for 19%  (+3.80)
Andrew Balding:  8 wins from 62 for 13%  (+7.00)
Mark Johnston:   7 wins from 59 for 12% (-20.12)
A P O'Brien      7 wins from 68 for 10% (-14.12)
Roger Varian:    6 wins from 31 for 19%  (+2.87)

TOP TRAINERS at ASCOT (5 YEARS)
John Gosden:     40 wins from 234 for 17% (-21.18)
A O Brien:       29 wins from 223 for 13% (-33.74)
Charlie Appleby: 23 wins from 140 for 16%  (-9.30)
Michael Stoute:  20 wins from 132 for 15%  (+6.32)
Mark Johnston:   20 wins from 210 for 10% (-87.75)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at ASCOT for 2019
Frankie Dettori: 12 wins from 46 for 26% (+32.11)
Ryan Moore:       7 wins from 48 for 15% (-15.04)
Adam Kirby:       6 wins from 43 for 14%  (+3.50)
James Doyle:      6 wins from 46 for 13% (-18.25)
Oisin Murphy:     6 wins from 61 for 10% (-34.50)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at ASCOT (5 YEARS)
Ryan Moore:      40 wins from 224 for 18% (-63.14)
Frankie Dettori: 34 wins from 152 for 22% (+20.36)
William Buick:   31 wins from 172 for 18%  (-5.85)
James Doyle:     22 wins from 160 for 14% (-49.34)
Adam Kirby:      20 wins from 176 for 11%  (-1.00)

 DAY 1 (Tuesday 16 June 2020)

1.15: BUCKINGHAM PALACE HANDICAP (Class 2) 7f
1.50: QUEEN ANNE STAKES (Group 1) 1m
2.25: RIBBLESDALE STAKES (Group 2) 1m4f
3.00: KING EDWARD VII STAKES (Group 2) 1m4f
3.35: KING'S STAND STAKES (Group 1) 5f
4.10: DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES (Group 2) 1m
4.40: ASCOT STAKES HANDICAP (Class 2) 2m4f

 DAY 2 (Wednesday 17 June 2020)

1.15: SILVER ROYAL HUNT HANDICAP (Class 2) 1m
1.50: HAMPTON COURT STAKES (Group 3) 1m2f
2.25: KING GEORGE V STAKES HANDICAP (Class 2) 1m4f
3.00: PRINCE OF WALES STAKES (Group 1) 1m2f
3.35: ROYAL HUNT CUP HERITAGE HANDICAP (Class 2) 1m
4.10: WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES (Listed) 5f
4.40: COPPER HORSE HANDICAP (Class 2) 1m6f

DAY 3 (Thursday 18 June 2020)

1.15: GOLDEN GATES HANDICAP (Class 2) 1m2f
1.50: WOLFERTON STAKES (Listed) 1m2f
2.25: JERSEY STAKES (Group 3) 7f
3.00: CHESHAM STAKES (Listed) 7f
3.35: GOLD CUP (Group 1) 2m4f
4.10: BRITANNIA STAKES HANDICAP (Class 2) 1m
4.40: SANDRINGHAM STAKES HANDICAP (Class 2) 1m

DAY 4 (Friday 19 June 2020)

1.15: PALACE OF HOLYROODHOUSE HANDICAP (Class 2) 5f
1.50: ALBANY STAKES (Group 3) 6f
2.25: NORFOLK STAKES (Group 2) 5f
3.00: HARDWICKE STAKES (Group 2) 1m4f
3.35: COMMONWEALTH CUP (Group 1) 6f
4.10: QUEEN'S VASE (Group 2) 1m6f
4.40: DUKE OF EDINBURGH STAKES HANDICAP (Class 2) 1m4f

DAY 5 (Saturday 20 June 2020)

12.40: SILVER WOKINGHAM HANDICAP (Class 2) 6f
1.15: QUEEN MARY STAKES (Group 2) 5f
1.50: COVENTRY STAKES (Group 2) 6f
2.25: CORONATION STAKES (Group 1) 1m
3.00: ST. JAMES PALACE STAKES (Group 1) 1m
3.35: DIAMOND JUBILEE STAKES (Group 1) 6f
4.10: WOKINGHAM STAKES HANDICAP (Class 2) 6f
4.45:
 QUEEN ALEXANDRA STAKES (Class 2) 2m5f+

The figures below show two sets of figures. To the left show the form over 14 days leading into Royal Ascot and to the right their scores at Royal Ascot.

John Gosden as predicted, was the current top trainer and Frankie Dettori the top jockey so two winning pieces of betting advice. There is no explanation regarding Charlie Appleby, Michael Stoute and William Haggas failing to score a single winner and combined they 37 runners. If we expanded our thoughts a little, those three trainers and Andrew Balding and Mark Johnston recorded just 2 wins from 96 runners for 2% and a major reason why it was such a bad Festival from a punting point of view! Richard Hannon scored 1-27 and continues to disappoint post Richard Hannon Senior...

TRAINER LEADER BOARD for ROYAL ASCOT 

John Gosden:     29-93 for 31%        6-29 for 21%
Charlie Appleby: 10-37 for 27%        0-14 for  0%
Michael Stoute:   9-45 for 20%        0-7  for  0%
Roger Varian:    11-57 for 19%        4-19 for 21%
Andrew Balding:  11-58 for 19%        1-32 for  3%
Aidan O'Brien:   14-76 for 18%        2-31 for 13%
Mark Johnston:  20-127 for 16%        1-29 for  3%  
William Haggas:   8-55 for 15%        0-16 for  0%
Simon Crisford:   2-31 for  6%        0-2  for  0%                -
Charles Hills:    2-33 for  6%        1-7  for 14%

As each result at Royal Ascot is known we shall update our leader board, with wins, place and unplaced numbers over the Festival. We EXPECT these top 10 trainers to win most of the 36 races. Our advice is clear - if you are opposing these trainers have a damn good reason to do so! Take no notice of pundits, find your own selections using the mathematics and rationale provided.

Classic winning jockey Jason Weaver gives his view of ASCOT RACECOURSE: 
Because the run-in on Ascot’s round course is relatively short, positioning - jockeyship in other words - is key. It goes without saying that in steadily-run races you want to be towards the sharp end but, whatever the pace, you can get into trouble trying to come through rivals late on. We’re still learning about the straight course, following the relaying a few years back, but in my view it’s more pace-dependent than draw-dependent. Given the right pace to chase, I reckon you can win from anywhere.
Disclaimer
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