The Investec Derby (Group 1) 1m4f ITV

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Epsom Derby is scheduled for Saturday 4 July 2020. Amongst the seven races is the Supreme Test of the Racehorse, the Investec Derby. The one that every Jockey, Trainer and Owner wants to win. The race is run over a distance of 1m4f10y over an undulating course. With an incredible prize pot of £1.5 million, this is Britain's richest, and most prestigious race. For one year only it will be run on the same day as the Epsom Oaks to create a blockbuster Saturday card featuring both the United Kingdom’s 1m 4f Classics.


4.55 Epsom: The Investec Derby (Group1) 1m4f ITV

12/12: At least 1 run that season (100%)
12/12: At least placed on last run (100%)
17/18: Ran within last 5 weeks (94%)
11/12: Rated 119 or higher (92%)
16/18: Raced no more than 5 times before (89%)
16/18: Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting (89%)
16/18: Finished 1 or 2 last time out (89%)
16/18: Won a Group race before (89%)
10/12: At least 1 win in Group 1-3 (83%)
10/12: At least 3 Flat runs (83%)
10/12: At least 2 Flat wins (83%)
10/12: Ran in the last 35 days (83%)
12/18: Favourites placed (67%)
12/18: Won from a single-figure stall (67%)
12/18: Won last time out (67%)
12/18: Ran over at least 1m2f before (67%)
10/18: Raced no more than 3 times before (56%)
..9/18: Irish-trained winners (50%)
..8/18: Won a Group One before (44%)
..6/18: Winning favourites (33%)
..6/18: Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 7 in all) (33%)
..5/18: Ran in the 2,000 Guineas (2 winners) (28%)
..4/18: Won Dante Stakes (York) last time out (22%)
..3/18: Trained by Michael Stoute (won 5 in all) (17%)
..3/18: Winners from stall 12 or higher (17%)
..2/18: Won over 1m4f before (11%)
..0/18: Ran at the course before (0%)
..0/18: Winners from stall 1 (0%)

The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 13/2
10 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Golden Horn, 2015 being the most-recent)
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017 & 2018


2019: Anthony Van Dyck (13/2)
2018: Masar (16/1)
2017: Wings of Eagles (40/1)
2016: Harzand (13/2)
2015: Golden Horn (13/8f)
2014: Australia (11/8f)
2013: Ruler Of The World (7/1)
2012: Camelot (8/13f)
2011: Pour Moi (4/1)
2010: Workforce (6/1)
2009: Sea The Stars (11/4)
2008: New Approach (5/1)
2007: Authorized (5/4f)
2006: Sir Percy (6/1)
2005: Motivator (3/1f)
2004: North Light (7/2jf)
2003: Kris Kin (6/1)
2002: High Chaparral (7/2)

Looking at the top 8 trends that apply this year we filter the following: At least placed on last run, rated 119 or higher, raced less than 5 times, returned shorter than 7/1, won a Group race before, finished first or second last start, had 3 Flat runs and at least 2 Flat wins. The figures aggregate 107-120 for 89%


ENGLISH KING demonstrated all the qualities needed to excel at Epsom when an easy winner of the Lingfield Derby Trial and can strike under Frankie Dettori. Aidan O'Brien saddles six as he bids to land this prize for a record eighth time and Mogul, who is the mount of Ryan Moore, and Russian Emperor look sure to have a big say. Kameko was a good 2000 Guineas winner but 1½m may stretch his stamina.


1 KAMEKO 5/1 (general)  2 English King 4/1 (Bet365, William Hill & Unibet)  3 Mogul 11/2 (Ladbrokes & Coral) 

Kameko's stamina for 1m4f isn't assured on pedigree but we have been convinced visually and with the subsequent comments of both Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy. We know he is a strong colt who travels powerfully but if there was more rain than expected, this would compromise his chances of staying strong at the line. We have bet and saved on our 1-2 and do not believe Mogul can beat both!

By the way Mogul will be out the back early with Ryan Moore up and not a type of bet we would be interested in!

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