PACAFI (26 June 2020)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

ADDITIONAL 7.00 Lingfield at 6/4

Betway Novice Stakes (Class 5) (3yo) 7f

Trainer Form: 2-5 for 40%    (10)
PRP: 87                      (10)                               
Optimum Ground: Good/Std     (10)
Optimum Distance: 7f         (10)
Jockey: Oisin Murphy         (10)         

The Racing Horse Composite:  (50)

Main danger: Vape 5/1

Additional is a half-brother to Aclaim who won six times between 6f and 1m including a Group 1 race. Third of 10 behind Mister Snowdon beaten 1l at 6/1 on his racecourse debut at Yarmouth over 7f on firm ground earlier this month.

Excellent debut

Additional was beaten less than a length when third over today’s trip at Yarmouth on his debut despite racing on the wrong side of the track and sets the standard here. The first two home are both rated 89 and the winner of that contest was deemed good enough to run in the Group 3 Jersey Stakes whilst the runner-up finished 4th in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot last week! Martyn Meade’s 260,000gns colt looks ready to win on that form despite a tricky draw.

Trainer form

Martyn Meade has a national average of 15%, the last 14 days shows 2-7 for 29% but from his last 5 runners 2 have won at 4/1 and 14/1. His Lingfield Turf figures show 6-40 for 15% (+19.40). Oisin Murphy rides and the combo is worth 10-63 for 16%. We note the jockey is just riding at Lingfield tonight, giving Doncaster and Newmarket a miss, but has some great rides and looks likely to score a win double. Meade sends three out today from his Wiltshire stable and all look to have good chances too. Stop at a winner?

Of his rivals

Vape went close at Haydock on his return and should go well again while Richard Hannon runs two with Grande Rumore finishing in front of Lamorna on the all-weather here last time and Afro Blue dropping down in class on his reappearance. Discover Dubai tried to match strides with the winner, to his detriment, when fourth on his first appearance and is likely to be involved with a smarter ride and is a likely improver with the Godolphin colt preferred to the likes of Mr Beau Blue and Silver Cliffs.

Timeform

ADDITIONAL can progress from his encouraging debut at Yarmouth and get off the mark under Oisin Murphy in a competitive novice event. Grande Rumore is the biggest danger after a solid second on the polytrack here. Discover Dubai can't be ruled out either.

Value

We had hoped to nick a bit of 7/4 but 6/4 still looks north of value. We tried to take the 13/8 from SkyBet but they will not take a reasonable bet from me the day before racing or the following early morning. Getting on is becoming a problem...

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