Pacafi (29 June 2020)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

ALNASEEM 3.00 Yarmouth at 5/2 

Download The At The Races App Handicap (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-80) 1m3y

Trainer Form: 2-7 for 29%    (10)
OR & PRP: 81 & 94            (10)                               
Optimum Ground: Good         (10)
Optimum Distance: 1m         (10)
Jockey: William Buick        (10)         

The Racing Horse Composite:  (50)

Main danger: Mayfair Pompette 2/1

Alnaseem is a winner at 1m on good to firm ground at Newmarket. Beaten a head by Lethal Missile when second of 10 as the 7/2 co-favourite on her latest outing at Windsor over 1m on good ground earlier this month. Hector Crouch rode a better race on the winner than Pat Dobbs did on the second and the difference between the margins.

Seasoned handicapper at better tracks than Yarmouth

It was interesting that Alnaseem was backed into the 7/2 co-favourite at Windsor over a mile on good ground 13 days ago in a Class 4 Handicap after a switch in trainer from Luke McJannet to James Ferguson. This was the first start for the trainer and it was fast going when she scored at Newmarket last year also in a Class 4 Handicap. The 4yo filly had only 7 runs prior to the Windsor run and those were at Newmarket (4), Newbury (2) and York (1) and always raced between Class 2 and Class 4 grades. Worth pointing out the filly backed up a second place 13 days later last year, to win next up so hope she repeats the number.

Trainer form

James Ferguson is the son of John Ferguson (Godolphin CEO) and has a deep knowledge of horse racing and will be successful. He has spent time as assistant trainer to the legendary Sir Mark Prescott, before taking on similar roles with Charlie Appleby, Brian Meehan, as well as Jessica Harrington in Ireland. He talks about his diverse schooling, a particular care on stable fitness and strategic race planning to give himself an edge in the game and we watch with interest from here. His connections will almost guarantee he receives good horses to train. The yard has 36 boxes and he starts with between 15 and 20 horses and will be focusing primarily on the Flat.

James Ferguson

It is almost certain the filly will do better for James Ferguson than Luke McJannet who shows 10-218 for just 5% generally or 2-81 for 2.47% on turf. At this point in time Ferguson is yet to record his first winner on turf (0-4), but already his career stats show 6-26 for 23% and there is only one direction of travel for this trainer. We are reminded that rival trainer Charlie Fellowes has his horses in fine form with 5-21 for 24%.

Of her rivals

Reine De Vitesse found only one too good over track and trip last time with Oud Metha Bridge just behind and that pair are hard to separate. Newmarket runner-up Motawaafeq is fitted with cheekpieces for the first time while main danger Mayfair Pompette has plenty of scope now handicapping. Course regular Balgair is back on a winning mark and looks best of the rest.

Timeform

MAYFAIR POMPETTE made an encouraging comeback after 14 months off in a novice event over C&D 19 days ago, beaten only by smart prospect/subsequent winner Magical Morining, and can do better again now handicapping. Alnaseem made a positive start for new connections when only just failing at Windsor 2 weeks ago and is the obvious threat, with Motawaafeq another to consider.

Value

This does look a race between two fillies. We thought Alnaseem and Mayfair Pompette would dominate the market proceedings but the former would be favourite given the latter races in a handicap for the first time and, although she is fancied to go close, will be taking on more experienced rivals with only one run of back form. We anticipate the market moving in our direction tomorrow but given the prices might have a part stake saver on the Charlie Fellowes filly at around 2/1 or 9/4 bpg. More news tomorrow morning on this line of thinking...

Finally

As we close our blog Alnaseem is available at 4.00 and 4.10 to small money and we have not taken those prices in case members want to nibble. 3/1 MUST be value about the Pacafi and note William Buick is a most significant jockey booking and 7lbs better than Stevie Donohue.

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