Pacafi (1 July 2020)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

BASILICATA 4.40 Kempton at 6/4

British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10/GBB Race) (Class 5) (2yo) 7f

Pedigree: Third foal; half-sister to 1m-8.6f winner Firebird Song (inc AW 2yo/German Listed; RPR 102); dam 1m3f winner (75), half-sister to Listed-placed 1m/1m1f 2yo winner Taranto and very useful 5f-7f winner Ancient Cross out of French 15.5f Group 3 winner

Trainer Form: 7-28 for 25%   (10)
PRP: 90                      (10)                               
Optimum Ground: Good/Std     (10)
Optimum Distance: 7f         (10)
Jockey: William Buick        (10)         

The Racing Horse Composite:  (50)

Main danger:

Basilicat was foaled 5 March and is a half-sister to Firebird Song, who won twice at 1m and 1m 1f. Beaten a short head by Feathers when second of 5 at 7/4 on her racecourse debut at Goodwood over 7f on good to firm ground last month in a Class 5 Novice Fillies's Stakes race.

Sets high standard in Class 5 Fillies' Novice at Kempton

Basilicata has the form in the book with a promising debut effort at Goodwood and created a good impression in the process. Beaten only a short-head on that occasion where she could have done without being taken on so far from home, but she kept finding and rallied well in the closing stages after the winner quickened past. She looked a next time out winner in something similar before going on to something better. She should have the measure of Tribute To Jade and Sarsaparilla who has looked a work in progress on both her outings to date at Haydock and at this venue when running on into fifth. She has since impressed on the Warren Hill gallops and looks a place prospect.

Trainer form

Mark Johnston has his horses running well and coming into this race shows 7-28 for 25% which compares favourably to that of Saeed bin Suroor whose national average is 22% yet currently running at 3%. Johnston had 26 winners in June and at Kempton records 131-967 for 14% which is 2% below his national average of 16%. Tomorrow he combines with William Buick and they log 37-221 for 17% generally, though 21-102 for 21% with 2yos. Buick rides Kempton very well and records 149-750 for 20% meaning this looks a proper jockey booking for a horse held in some regard.

Of her rivals

Gold Wing looks the danger as she’s a half-sister to no less than seven winners but the form of her trainer must be a concern who is 1-23 for 4% in the last 14 days and 1-36 for 3% in June. Drawn 8 is not the best stall for an unraced filly and it will be hard to find cover here. Alagappa is also related to several winners but Iconic Queen is a half-sister to Group 1 winner Arabian Queen among others and makes most appeal of the newcomers. 

Timeform

GOLD WING has a sparkling pedigree and could make a winning start for Godolphin. The danger is Basilicata, who made a promising debut at Goodwood and seems sure to improve.

Value

We do not how good Gold Wing is going to be on debut so cannot be certain of what constitutes perceived value, but for the Saeed bin Suroor filly to win she must overcome poor trainer form and then produce a RPR in excess of 90 and that must take some doing! We believe we are on the north side of value because of that. Fair to say had Gold Wing not been in the race we would have taken 4/5. The market will tell us if there is any confidence behind the Godolphin runner.

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