Epsom Races (Saturday 4 July 2020)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our powerful RACING TRENDS, RACECOURSE TEMPLATE and BETTING ADVICE for Epsom for Saturday 4 July 2020. Please note the Derby & Oaks have their own designated pages.

.

The surface is currently good, good to soft in places. The Surrey track soaked up 4.5 millimetres of rain in a series of showers on Wednesday between 4pm and 7pm and two heavy showers – equating to 11mm – on Thursday triggered a going change from good. Epsom clerk of the course Andrew Cooper told us: "The greatest likelihood is that we’ll be at or near good on Saturday. We'd need really heavy showers to soften it beyond the slow side of good."

EPSOM RACECOURSE TEMPLATE

The INVESTEC DERBY (Group 1) 1m4f ITV

The INVESTEC OAKS (Group 1) 1m4f ITV

.

1.50 Epsom: Investec Woodcote EBF Stakes (Conditions Race) (Class 2) (2yo) 6f ITV

18/18: Ran within last 4 weeks (100%)
17/18: Won over either 5 or 6f before (94%)
16/18: Finished 1 or 2 last time out (89%)
15/18: Returned 7/1 or shorter (83%)
15/18: Single-figured stalls filled first three home (83%)
10/12: Foaled in February (3) or March (7) (83%)
14/18: Raced 2 or more times previously (78%)
14/18: Stall 5 or lower (78%)
12/18: Yet to win over 6f (67%)
..9/18: Winning favourites (2 joint) (50%)
..9/18: Won previous race (50%)
..5/18: Won by Mark Johnston (28%)
..3/18: Trained by Richard Hannon (17%)
..2/18: Trained by Mick Channon (11%)
..2/18: Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa (11%)

TIMEFORM

TWAASOL's cosy Windsor win is backed up by the clock, so providing he handles the track, his claims appear to be strong. Modern News sets the standard following a respectable run in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot, while Lingfield-scorer Mutazawwed has the pedigree to progress again.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1 MODERN NEWS 5/2 (2nd)  2 Inhaler 8/1 (4th)  3 Mutazaawed 4/1 (3rd)

~

2.25 Epsom: Investec Surrey Stakes (Listed) (3yo+) 7f ITV

10/10: Won over 6f+ before (100%)
10/10: Drawn in stalls 7 or lower (100%)
.9/10: Ran in the last 6 weeks (90%)
.8/10: Rated between 95-107 (80%)
.8/10: Never raced at Epsom before (80%)
.7/10: Drawn in stalls 3 or higher (70%)
.7/10: Won just 1-2 times before (70%)
.7/10: Won over 7f before (70%)
.7/10: Returned 4/1 or shorter (70%)
.6/10: Placed favourites (60%)
.5/10: Winning favourites (1 joint) (50%)
.5/10: Ran at Newmarket last time out (50%)
.3/10: Won last time out (30%)
.2/10: Won at the track before (20%)
.2/10: Godolphin-owned (20%)
.2/10: Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa (20%)

The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

TIMEFORM 

SAFE VOYAGE enjoyed a highly productive 2019, winning 3 times prior to some excellent in-the-frame efforts at the highest level during the autumn. An excellent second on return at Haydock last month, he's fancied to prove tough to beat. Vale of Kent is the type to leave a lesser effort at Newmarket in his wake and warrants respect, whilst a good pace would bring Oh This Is Us into the reckoning.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1 SAFE VOYAGE 6/5 (WINNER)  2 Shine So Bright 5/1 (3rd)  3 Oh This Is Us 7/1 (4th)

~

3.00 Epsom: Investec Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+) 1m2f ITV

16/17: Won over at least 1m2f or further before (94%)
14/17: Raced within the last 5 weeks (82%)
14/17: Aged 4 or 5yo (82%)
13/17: Won at least 3 times before (76%)
13/17: Came from stall 9 or lower (76%)
12/17: Returned 8/1 or shorter (71%)
11/17: Rated between 86-98 (65%)
11/17: Carried 9st 0lbs or less in weight (65%)
11/17: Irish bred (65%)
11/17: Placed favourites (65%)
10/17: Came from the top three in the betting (59%)
10/17: Winning distance – 1 length or shorter (59%)
..7/17: Raced at the track before (41%)
..6/17: Won last time out (35%)
..5/17: Winning favourites (29%)
..3/17: Raced at Goodwood last time out (18%)

TIMEFORM 

A big field but it's impossible to ignore the claims of DESERT ICON, who ran away with a handicap at Newmarket only six days ago and is weighted to go in again under a 6 lb penalty. You're Hired looks the one to give him most to do after also scoring in good style there recently. Tinandali and Ironclad look the pick of the remainder.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1 TINANDALI 10/1 (3rd)  2 Johnny Drama 8/1 (9th)  3 Sucellus 33/1 (7th)

~

4.15: Prince Elizabeth Stakes (Group 3) (3yo) 1m½f ITV

17/17: Returned 9/1 or shorter (100%)
17/17: Won at Listed or Group 3 class before (100%)
15/17: Drawn in stall 4, 5, 6, 7 or 8 (88%)
15/17: Favourites placed (88%)
14/17: Finished in top three last time out (82%)
14/17: Aged 4 or 5yo (82%)
14/17: Came from the top 3 in the betting (82%)
..8/10: Won by Silvestre de Sousa (2), J Doyle (3) or F Dettori (3) (80%)
13/17: Won over at least a mile before (76%)
13/17: Won between 4-6 times before (76%)
12/17: Raced within the last 4 weeks (71%)
10/17: Winning distance – 1 length or less (59%)
10/17: Aged 4yo (59%)
..9/17: Winning favourites (53%)
..9/17: Raced at Epsom before (53%)
..9/17: Drawn in either stall 5 or 6 (53%)
..8/17: Won last time out (47%)
..6/17: Raced at Goodwood last time out (35%)
...3/10: Godolphin winners (30%)
..4/17: Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (24%)
..3/17: Won by a Cheveley Park-owned horse (18%)
..2/17: Trained by Michael Stoute (12%)
..2/17: Trained by Mick Channon (12%)
..2/17: Trained by Roger Charlton (12%)

TIMEFORM 

FOORAAT is bred to be very good being out of connections' Prix de l'Opera winner Nahrain, and she can take this step up in class in her stride having looked a smart prospect when easily defying a penalty at Chelmsford. The obvious threat is Cloak of Spirits, who's dropping in class having finished second in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket before a respectable fifth in the Coronation at Royal Ascot.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1 FOORAAT 11/8 (general)  2 Cloak Of Spirits 3/1 (general)  3 Love And Thunder 6/1 (general)

Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *