YORK RACECOURSE TEMPLATE featuring the John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes (Group 3) on Saturday 18 July 2020

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The Racing Horse believe members should absorb our RACECOURSE TEMPLATES before wagering. It genuinely provides a betting landscape giving pertinence to various types of races, whilst highlighting those trainers and jockeys best placed to win them.

 

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York Races (Saturday 18 July 2020)

YORK RACECOURSE TEMPLATE

YORK FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                     Handicap
2yo:    36-97  for 37% (-4.68)     6-22 for 27%  (+1.15)
3yo:    19-47  for 40% (-3.20)    33-92 for 36% (+31.13)
4yo+:   24-51  for 47% (+8.12)   43-181 for 24% (-12.13)
Total: 79-195  for 41% (+0.24)   82-295 for 28% (+20.51)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at YORK for 2019
John Gosden:    9 wins from 30 for 30%  (-0.26)
William Haggas: 7 wins from 38 for 18%  (-6.16)
David O'Meara:  7 wins from 83 for  8% (-12.25)
Michael Dods:   6 wins from 33 for 18% (+10.37)
Tim Easterby:   6 wins from 91 for  7% (+11.00)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at YORK for last 5 years
Richard Fahey:  36 wins from 525 for  7% (-167.62)
Tim Easterby:   29 wins from 335 for  9% (+107.00)
William Haggas: 28 wins from 153 for 18%  (-17.55)
John Gosden:    24 wins from  89 for 27%   (-2.52)
Mark Johnston:  24 wins from 231 for 10%  (-33.24)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at YORK for 2019
Daniel Tudhope:  9 wins from 71 for 13% (-27.20)
Frankie Dettori: 8 wins from 25 for 32%  (-0.76)
Connor Beasley:  6 wins from 11 for 55% (+50.87)
James Doyle:     6 wins from 33 for 18% (+17.50)
David Allan:     6 wins from 42 for 14% (+14.00)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at YORK for last 5 years
Frankie Dettori: 25 wins from 101 for 25%  (-2.70)
James Doyle:     22 wins from 116 for 19% (+16.37)
Daniel Tudhope:  22 wins from 231 for 10% (-58.95)
Paul Hanagan:    18 wins from 203 for  9% (-43.50)
David Allan:     16 wins from 181 for  9% (-22.50)

These figures are always interesting and pertinent and note 4yo+ favourites in non-handicaps win at a strike rate of 47%. John Gosden maintains a 27% plus strike rate at the course and Frankie Dettori scored at 32% last year.

Connor Beasley was an unexpected name on our leader board for 2019 with figures showing 6-11 for 55% and a level stake profit of +50.87. One trainer to avoid is Richard Fahey, he trains too many horses to be truly effective and his 'have horse will run' figures are not conducive to profit from a win perspective. One imagines some professionals successfully laying his runners given his massive -167.62 return to level stakes.

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Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a math-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a math-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

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