The Racing Horse offers our powerful RACECOURSE TEMPLATE, RACING TRENDS and BETTING ADVICE for Ascot on Saturday 25 July 2020. We look at four races including the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1) 1m4f, it is going to be one emotional day!
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS) HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS) 2yo: 25-85 for 29% (-15.39) 4-4 for 100% (+5.20) 3yo: 29-81 for 36% (-8.44) 33-111 for 30% (-3.14) 4yo+: 35-92 for 38% (-4.65) 41-133 for 31% (+34.83) Total: 89-258 for 34% (-28.58) 78-248 for 31% (+36.89) TOP 5 TRAINERS at ASCOT for 2019 John Gosden: 11 wins from 59 for 19% (-3.80) Andrew Balding: 8 wins from 62 for 13% (+7.00) Mark Johnston: 7 wins from 59 for 12% (-20.12) A P O'Brien: 7 wins from 68 for 10% (-14.12) Roger Varian: 6 wins from 31 for 19% (+2.87) TOP 5 JOCKEYS at ASCOT for 2019 Frankie Dettori: 12 wins from 46 for 26% (+32.11) Ryan Moore: 7 wins from 48 for 15% (-15.04) Adam Kirby: 6 wins from 43 for 14% (-+3.50) James Doyle: 6 wins from 46 for 13% (-18.25) Oisin Murphy: 6 wins from 61 for 19% (-34.50)
ONLY TOP TRAINERS & JOCKEYS CONSIDERED at ASCOT!
When we look at racing from Ascot our Racecourse Template always remind us it is a course for top trainers and jockeys. It is almost certain, the trainers and jockeys registered, will feature heavily on Saturday's racing.
From a trainer and jockey perspective the key numbers are produced by John Gosden and Frankie Dettori and the greatest jockey I have seen recorded a 26% strike rate in 2019 with a level stake profit of +32.11. This year he is in profit again showing 6-29 for 21% (+0.68). He is sure to add to his winners tally on Saturday, he rides Tsar and Enable and both look winners at this early stage.
X MARKS YOUR CARD
On a personal note we would not entertain/consider a Gay Kelleway (1%), Tony Carroll (0%) or David Evans (0.5%) type-trainer irrespective of form or profile of a horse - they just do not win here! Opening our Racing Post Racing Card Page there is an x available to strike out runners from trainers who just do not have, or have a low mathematical chance. Those 3 trainers have sent nearly 400 runners to the course for just 3 winners.
NEGATIVE FAVOURITE ALERT
Ascot does come with a favourite alert, as they have lower than the national average winning favourites. For example, 3yo favourites tend to win non-handicaps at a strike rate between 42% and 46% but Ascot records just 36% so if we accept favourites win at around 32% of races generally at courses like Wolverhampton, Chepstow and Brighton the 36% is a poor/small return!
There is a 9-race card and the going is currently good to firm. Updates to follow...
Today's Pacafi: click here
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