Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our powerful RACECOURSE TEMPLATE, RACING TRENDS and BETTING ADVICE for Ascot on Saturday 25 July 2020. We look at four races including the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1) 1m4f, it is going to be one emotional day!


2yo:   25-85  for 29% (-15.39)       4-4  for 100%  (+5.20)
3yo:   29-81  for 36%  (-8.44)     33-111 for  30%  (-3.14)
4yo+:  35-92  for 38%  (-4.65)     41-133 for  31% (+34.83)
Total: 89-258 for 34% (-28.58)     78-248 for  31% (+36.89)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at ASCOT for 2019
John Gosden:    11 wins from 59 for 19%  (-3.80)
Andrew Balding:  8 wins from 62 for 13%  (+7.00)
Mark Johnston:   7 wins from 59 for 12% (-20.12)
A P O'Brien:     7 wins from 68 for 10% (-14.12)
Roger Varian:    6 wins from 31 for 19%  (+2.87)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at ASCOT for 2019
Frankie Dettori: 12 wins from 46 for 26% (+32.11)
Ryan Moore:       7 wins from 48 for 15% (-15.04)
Adam Kirby:       6 wins from 43 for 14% (-+3.50)
James Doyle:      6 wins from 46 for 13% (-18.25)
Oisin Murphy:     6 wins from 61 for 19% (-34.50)


When we look at racing from Ascot our Racecourse Template always remind us it is a course for top trainers and jockeys. It is almost certain, the trainers and jockeys registered, will feature heavily on Saturday's racing.


From a trainer and jockey perspective the key numbers are produced by John Gosden and Frankie Dettori and the greatest jockey I have seen recorded a 26% strike rate in 2019 with a level stake profit of +32.11. This year he is in profit again showing 6-29 for 21% (+0.68). He is sure to add to his winners tally on Saturday, he rides Tsar and Enable and both look winners at this early stage.


On a personal note we would not entertain/consider a Gay Kelleway (1%), Tony Carroll (0%) or David Evans (0.5%) type-trainer irrespective of form or profile of a horse - they just do not win here! Opening our Racing Post Racing Card Page there is an x available to strike out runners from trainers who just do not have, or have a low mathematical chance. Those 3 trainers have sent nearly 400 runners to the course for just 3 winners.


Ascot does come with a favourite alert, as they have lower than the national average winning favourites. For example, 3yo favourites tend to win non-handicaps at a strike rate between 42% and 46% but Ascot records just 36% so if we accept favourites win at around 32% of races generally at courses like Wolverhampton, Chepstow and Brighton the 36% is a poor/small return!

There is a 9-race card and the going is currently good to firm. Updates to follow...


  Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a math-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.


The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

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