GOODWOOD RACING TRENDS (Day 5)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our RACECOURSE TEMPLATE, RACING TRENDS & BETTING ADVICE for Goodwood on Saturday 1 August 2020 (Day 5).

1.50 – Unibet Stewards’ Sprint Stakes Handicap (Consolation Race for the Qatar Stewards’ Cup) (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f

16/16: Not win their last race (100%)
15/16: Won over 6f previously (94%)
13/14: Carried 9st 0lbs or more (93%)
14/16: Raced at Goodwood previously (88%)
13/16: Raced 4 or more times that season (81%)
12/16: Won at least 3 times during their career (75%)
12/16: Finished 4th or worse in their last race (75%)
12/16: Unplaced favourites (75%)
10/14: Carried between 9st and 9st 5lbs (71%)
..9/16: Priced between 8/1 and 12/1 (56%)
..9/16: Returned a double-figure price (56%)
..7/16: Winning Distance – 1¼ lengths or more (44%)
..7/16: Raced at York (3) or Newmarket (4) last time out (44%)
..3/16: Trained by Clive Cox (19%)
..3/16: Winning favourites (1 in last 14 years) (19%)
..1/14: Winners from stall 1 (7%)
..1/16: 3yo winners (6%)

2019 Winner: Poyle Vinnie (20/1) 

Low-drawn horses held sway in a bigger field in this race 12 months ago but the best pace looks to be middle to high this time round. Timeform reminds us the draw favours low, so this race is going to be hard to solve...

TIMEFORM

Given that REWAAYAT won by 7½ lengths at Salisbury last time a 12 lb rise doesn't actually look that severe and he can confirm himself a much-improved model this season by making it 3 in a row. 2018 winner Tommy G looks primed to go well in this again (also third in 2019). His half-brother Call Me Ginger is another who could have a say, while Treacherous remains with handicapping scope on AW form.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:

1 TREACHEROUS 17/2 (WINNER)  2 Rewaayat 10/3 (4th)  3 May Remain 20/1 (15th)  4 Music Society 33/1 (14th)

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2.25 – Unibet Summer Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f ITV

16/17: Won at least twice before (94%)
15/17: Won over at least 1m4f before (88%)
14/17: Aged 4 or 5yo (82%)
14/17: Raced within the last 4 weeks (82%)
..8/12: Came from stalls 10-14 inc (67%)
11/17: Carried 9st 7lbs or more (65%)
10/17: Returned 9/1 or shorter (59%)
10/17: Rated between 90-100 (59%)
10/17: Placed favourites (59%)
..9/17: Came from top three in the betting (53%)
..5/17: Ran at Newmarket last time out (29%)
..5/17: Trained by Mark Johnston (29%)
..5/17: Winning favourites (29%)
..4/17: Won last time out (24%)
..3/17: Ran at Ascot last time out (18%)
..2/17: Ridden by Ryan Moore (12%)
..0/14: Stall 1 winners (0%)
..

2019 Winner: King’s Advice (7/2f)

TIMEFORM 

A gelding operation prior to his reappearance seems to have sorted LAAFY out, as he improved on his winning Newbury form when runner-up in a well-up-to-scratch Old Newton Cup at Haydock and the step back up in trip may also be in his favour. Themaxwecan and Shailene are feared most.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:

1 THEMAXWECAN 8/1 (8th)  2 Indianapolis 12/1 (3rd)  3 Laafy 11/4 (6th)

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3.00 – Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m6f ITV

15/17: Won over at least 1m4f before (88%)
14/17: Raced 2 or more times that season (82%)
13/17: Finished in top 3 last time out (76%)
13/17: Returned 15/2 or shorter (76%)
12/17: Aged 3 or 4yo (71%)
..9/14: Came from stalls 4-6 (inc) (64%)
10/17: Ran at Goodwood before (59%)
..9/17: Unplaced favourites (53%)
..9/17: Won last time out (53%)
..5/17: Winning favourites (29%)
..3/17: Ran at Newmarket last time out (18%)
..3/17: Ridden by Tom Queally (18%)

2019 Winner: Enbihaar (7/2cf)

TIMEFORM 

ENBIHAAR had 5 lengths in hand when beating Manuela de Vega in this 12 months ago and the latter has a 3 lb penalty now. John Gosden's filly made quite an encouraging return at Newmarket and should prove hard to beat again. Cabaletta and Snow both have a bit to find taking on their elders but they remain with potential going up in distance.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:

1 ENBIHAAR 8/11 (WINNER)  2 Manuela De Vega 9/2 (NON-RUNNER)

3.35 – Unibet Cup (Stewards´ Cup) (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

17/17: Won over 6f before (100%)
16/17: Aged 6yo or younger (94%)
16/17: At least 3 previous career wins (94%)
16/17: Raced 3 or more times that season (94%)
11/15: Came from a double-figure draw (73%)
12/17: Raced at Ascot, York or Newmarket last time out (71%)
11/17: Aged either 4 or 5yo (65%)
11/17: Placed favourites (top 4) (65%)
10/17: Carried 9st 1lbs or less (59%)
..9/17: Raced at Goodwood before (53%)
..9/17: Placed 1st or 2nd last time out (53%)
..6/17: Winn3/17: Winning 3yos (18%)ing favourites (1 joint, 1 co) (35%)
..2/17: Trained by Roger Charlton (12%)
..2/17: Trained by William Haggas (12%)

2019 Winner: Khaadem (4/1f)

TIMEFORM 

NAHAARR won with ease at Newbury a fortnight ago and could be tailor-made for this race with more improvement on the way. Meraas has quickly made up into a useful sprinter for Mark Johnston and also has huge claims. Swindler and Richard Hannon's Middleham Park pair Wedding Date and Lexington Dash are others who make plenty of appeal.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:

1 STONE OF DESTINY 40/1 (23rd)  2 Nahaarr 9/2 (9th)  3 Gulliver 20/1 (11th)  4 Meraas 13/2 (6th)

4.10 – Qatar Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 7f ITV

10/10: Carried 9st 4lbs or less (100%)
..9/10: Ran in the last 3 weeks (90%)
..8/10: Won over 7f before (80%)
..8/10: Drawn in stall 7 or lower (80%)
..8/10: Won 2 or 3 times before (80%)
..7/10: Rated between 91-96 (70%)
..7/10: Returned 8/1 or shorter (70%)Irish bred (50%)
..4/10: Won last time out (40%)
..4/10: Ran at Goodwood before (40%)
..4/10: Ran at Newmarket last time out (40%)
..3/10: Trained by Mark Johnston (30%)
..2/10: Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa (20%)
..2/10: Ridden by Joe Fanning (20%)
..1/10: Winning favourites (10%)

The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

TIMEFORM 

SOCIETY LION shaped very well when beaten only a neck at Doncaster last time, and still looks well ahead of his mark despite a 5 lb rise, so he makes plenty of appeal. Mister Snowdon should continue to run well, while similar comments apply to King Ragnar.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:

1 COLD FRONT 11/2 (NON-RUNNER)  2 Society Lion 2/1 (WINNER)  3 Mister Snowdon 5/1 (2nd)

Exacta: £9.10 & CSF: £7.41

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Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose

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