The Racing Horse provides members our RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for HAYDOCK on Saturday 8 August 2020. It provides a betting landscape for the racecourse revealing some interesting numbers/figures.
HAYDOCK FAVOURITES (5 years)
2yo: 47-115 for 41% (-9.18) 3-15 for 20% (-6.25)
3yo: 33-78 for 42% (-9.82) 73-221 for 33% (-14.79)
4yo+: 24-54 for 44% (+7.96) 77-233 for 33% (+8.15)
Total: 104-247 for 42% (-11.03) 153-469 for 33% (-12.89)
HAYDOCK Top 5 Trainers current year
Ralph Beckett: 8-19 for 42% (+23.87)
William Haggas: 8-23 for 35% (+2.33)
Richard Hannon: 5-28 for 18% (+21.50)
Clive Cox: 4-10 for 40% (+13.50)
Roger Charlton: 4-11 for 36% (+16.50)
Trainers with runners tomorrow and since a win include: Mrs M Fife 91, Roger Fell 45, J Goldie 38, E Dunlop 31 and Katie Scott 29 (not including yesterday's results)
Trainers with runners tomorrow with a strike rate of 25% or more in the last month include: S & E Crisford 14-43 for 33%, Sir Mark Prescott 11-34 for 32%, D & C Kubler 4-14 for 29% and W Haggas 28-112 for 25% (not including yesterday's results)
HAYDOCK Top 5 Jockeys current year
James Doyle: 7-37 for 19% (+13.90)
Richard Kingscote: 7-55 for 13% (+18.37)
Oisin Murphy: 6-27 for 22% (+17.90)
Andrea Atzeni: 6-31 for 19% (-5.16)
Harry Bentley: 5-22 for 23% (-6.62)
Jockeys with rides tomorrow and since a win include: Robbie Downey 70, Cam Hardie 35, Billy Garrity 34, Callum Rodrigquez 27 and Theodore Ladd 27 (not including yesterday's results)
Jockeys with rides at today’s meeting that have a 15% or greater strike rate in the last month include: Frankie Dettori 10-45 for 22% and Hollie Doyle 19-122 for 16% (not including yesterday's results)
Haydock is a lovely galloping track and on fast ground, despite the long straight, you can get away from your field and prove very hard to peg back. It’s completely different when conditions are softer, though, requiring more patient tactics. In distance races, there’s an advantage to be had in the back straight by switching sides as the course turns. There used to be a huge bias in favour of the stands’ rail in soft ground and, while it’s less pronounced these days, I’m still a believer in taking that route.
Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.
The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.
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