The Racing Horse offers our RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for York. The figures provide a betting landscape giving pertinence to various types of races, whilst highlighting those trainers and jockeys best placed to win them.
YORK RACECOURSE TEMPLATE
YORK FAVOURITES (5 years)
2yo: 37-103 for 36% (-7.43) 6-23 for 26% (+0.50)
3yo: 21-52 for 40% (-4.45) 35-98 for 36% (+31.01)
4yo+: 24-54 for 44% (+4.62) 47-194 for 24% (-10.04)
Total: 82-209 for 39% (-7.27) 88-315 for 28% (+21.47)
TOP 5 TRAINERS at YORK for 2019
John Gosden: 9 wins from 30 for 30% (-0.26)
William Haggas: 7 wins from 38 for 18% (-6.16)
David O'Meara: 7 wins from 83 for 8% (-12.25)
Michael Dods: 6 wins from 33 for 18% (+10.37)
Tim Easterby: 6 wins from 91 for 7% (+11.00)
TOP 5 TRAINERS at YORK for last 5 years
Richard Fahey: 38 wins from 550 for 7% (-174.12)
William Haggas: 34 wins from 163 for 21% (+8.22)
Tim Easterby: 29 wins from 363 for 8% (+79.00)
Mark Johnston: 26 wins from 240 for 11% (-22.74)
John Gosden: 25 wins from 92 for 27% (-4.19)
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at YORK for 2019
Daniel Tudhope: 9 wins from 71 for 13% (-27.20)
Frankie Dettori: 8 wins from 25 for 32% (-0.76)
Connor Beasley: 6 wins from 11 for 55% (+50.87)
James Doyle: 6 wins from 33 for 18% (+17.50)
David Allan: 6 wins from 42 for 14% (+14.00)
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at YORK for last 5 years
Daniel Tudhope: 29 wins from 257 for 11% (-38.00)
Frankie Dettori: 26 wins from 104 for 25% (-4.37)
James Doyle: 22 wins from 119 for 19% (+13.37)
Paul Hanagan: 18 wins from 203 for 9% (-43.50)
David Allan: 16 wins from 195 for 8% (-36.50)
These figures are always interesting and pertinent. Best winning favourite category are the 4yo+ favourites in non-handicaps who win at a strike rate of 44%. Lowest strike rate category are the 4yo+favourites in handicaps who record just 24% so well below the 32% national average.
From a win perspective trainer Richard Fahey is leading trainer over the past 5 years but with a miserable strike rate of just 7%. Conversely John Gosden strikes at 27% whilst Frankie Dettori scores at 25% though 32% in 2019.
Trainers with runners at the course on the cold list:
J J Quinn: 33
David Loughnane: 32
K Dalgleish: 28
L Mullaney: 24
M Dods: 18
Jockeys with rides at the course on the cold list:
Theodore Ladd: 36
Kieran O'Neill: 33
Rob Hornby: 32
Harry Bentley: 28
Jason Weaver's view on York Racecourse
Because they can start racing from a long way out at York, which is a big galloping track, sometimes the last one to challenge has an advantage. Some people think it suits front-runners, but more often than not the one in the lead will get picked off at around the 1f marker. There’s no doubt it’s a quality course, though, wide, with no ridges, lovely sweeping turns and no draw bias. It can become very testing when the ground gets soft - it is KnavesMIRE, after all - and then it really takes some getting.
Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a math-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a math-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.
The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.
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