Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+) 1m5f188y

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse looks at the RACING TRENDS for the Ebor Handicap to be run on Saturday 22 August 2020. It is the richest Flat handicap in Britain, with a lucrative £1 million prize pot. First run in 1843, the Ebor has long been a centrepiece of British staying racing and is the headline event of the four-day Ebor festival held at York Racecourse.

The Racing Horse Verdict:

1 PONDUS11/1 (general)  2 Trueshan 8/1 (Bet365, William Hill & Unibet)  3 True Self 16/1 (William Hill & Unibet)  4 Fujaira Prince 6/1 (Boylesports)

3.40 York: Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+) 1m5f188y

17/18: Carried 9st 5lbs or less (94%)
17/18: Aged 6yo or younger (94%)
15/18: Won over at least 1m4f before (83%)
14/18: Won from a double-figure stall (78%)
12/18: Carried 9st 1lbs or less (67%)
12/18: Aged 4 or 5yo (67%)
12/18: Winning Distance – 1 length or less (67%)
11/18: Raced 3 or more timess that season (61%)
10/18: Unplaced favourites (56%)
..9/18: Ran at York before (50%)
..5/11: Irish-trained winners (45%)
..5/18: Ran at Ascot last time out (28%)
..5/18: Won last time out (28%)
..4/18: Ran at Goodwood last time out (22%)
..3/18: Ran at Galway last time out (17%)
..2/18: Ridden by Jamie Spencer (11%)
..1/21: Winning favourites (5%)

Michael Stoute won the race in 1980, 1991 and 1996
Average winning SP in the last 18 years is 21/1

RECENT WINNERS

2019: Mustajeer (16/1)
2018: Muntahaa (11/1)
2017: Nakeeta (12/1)
2016: Heartbreak City (15/2)
2015: Litigant (33/1)
2014: Mutual Regard (20/1)
2013: Tiger Cliff (5/1)
2012: Willing Foe (12/1)
2011: Moyenne Corniche (25/1)
2010: Dirar (14/1)
2009: Sesenta (25/1)
2008: All The Good (25/1)
2007: Purple Moon (7/2f)
2006: Mudawin (100/1)
2005: Sergeant Cecil (11/1)
2004: Mephisto (6/1)
2003: Saint Alebe (20/1)
2002: Hugs Dancer (25/1) 

2008: Ran at Newbury over 1m3f

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 2-2-11-3-8-4-19-1-5-2-10-7-4-4-4-(12,13)-14-2-12-9 

DRAW SIGNIFICANCE

The draw carries significance despite the race being a 1m6f handicap. Most years there are 19 to 20 runners so field size plays a huge part particularly in the early part of the race down York's back straight.

  • Since 1997 only 6 Ebor winners came from a single figure draw (27%)
  • 9 of the last 11 winners were drawn stall 10 or higher (82%)
  • Looking at the first 4 home in the last 5 runnings 15 of 20 were drawn in double-figure stalls (75%)

Breaking the stalls positions into quarter segments, these are the figures since 2010 highlighting the excellent strike rate from those runners in the 3rd quarter (mid to high draws): 

  • Quarter 1 (low): 1 winner and 7 placed from 48 runners (2%) 
  • Quarter 2 (low to mid): 2 winners and 6 placed from 50 runners (4%) 
  • Quarter 3 (mid to high): 5 winners and 6 placed from 50 runners (10%) 
  • Quarter 4 (high): 2 winners and 10 placed from 44 runners (5%)

OTHER KEY STATS

  • Only 1 winning favourite in the last 21 years (5%)
  • 17/18 aged 6yo or younger (94%)
  • Mark Johnston 0-21 over the last 20 years (0%)
  • Michael Stoute 0-15 (0%) 
  • Male horse winners show 19-376 for 5% whilst Female show 1-20 for 5%

TIMEFORM 

TRUESHAN knuckled down really well to win a Haydock listed last time and his campaign looks to have been geared around this race, with the return to 1¾m potentially seeing him in an even better light. There are any number of possible dangers, headed by easy Royal Ascot winner Fujaira Prince, the thriving Deja and very classy hurdler Verdana Blue. Jeremiah is one who could go well at bigger odds

***

  Today's Pacafi: click here

Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *