8.00 Chelmsford: Support The Injured Jockeys Fund Handicap (Class 6) (4yo+ 0-60) 1m5f66y

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Today we look at another low class handicap (12 runners) and use common sense/mathematical filters to sort the contenders from the pretenders. These filters are explained in this RATIONALE

  1. TRAINER FORM
  2. JOCKEY COMPETENCE
  3. CLASS
  4. GROUND/SURFACE
  5. DISTANCE
  6. SINCE LAST RUN
  7. FORM
  8. COURSE

8.00 Chelmsford: Support The Injured Jockeys Fund Handicap (Class 6) (4yo+ 0-60) 1m5f66y

                       1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8  
 1 Great Hall:         X  
 2 Cheng Gong:         ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ 0 ♥ ♥      88
 3 Sunshineandbubbles: ♥ X           
 4 Lauberhorn Rocket:  ♥ X
 5 Red Archangel:      ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ 0 0 ♥ 0      63      
 6 Lady Of York:       ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ 0 ♥ ♥      88
 7 Affair:             ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥     100
 8 Que Quires:         ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ 0 0 ♥      75
 9 Dolphin Village:    X 
10 Threediamondrings:  X 

♥ Affirmative 0 Negative X Eliminated

Contenders

 The final set of figures show the trainer's national average strike rate, their current form over the last 14 days and their strike rate at Newcastle. We measure current and course form against their national average

 2 Cheng Gong 88: Career best last. Progressive, good pilot
 5 Red Archangel 63: Unsure about optimum distance?      
 6 Lady Of York 88: Course winner, 2 wins this year
 7 Affair 100: Angus Villiers 1-61, 1-23 at track!
 8 Que Quires 75: CD winner, Luke Morris rides
 2 Cheng Gong:    N King     16%  0-1  for 0% (-16%)  17% (+1%)
 5 Red Archangel: R Spencer   9%  1-10 for 10% (+1%)   5% (-4%)   
 6 Lady Of York:  C Banham   11%  0-4  for 0% (-11%)  11% (+0%)
 7 Affair:        H Morrison 11%  4-20 for 20% (+9%)  18% (+7%)
 8 Que Quires:    S Dow      10%  1-10 for 10% (+0%)  11% (+1%)

NEIL KING'S figures on the composite does not reflect his current form as those shown are Flat figures and he is primarily a NH trainer. His last near quarter over the jumps is particularly impressive showing September 2-3 for 67% (+20.63), August 2-9 for 22% (-3.15) and July 3-11 for 27% (+44.00). He clearly has his horses well and his jockey Dougie Costello will give his charge a good ride. The only negative is Chen Gong has been off the track for 93 days.

HUGHIE MORRISON has the horse to beat but Angus Villiers rides and his form is of real concern. At 7st 13lbs he rides very light but he claims a valuable 5lbs reducing the 9st to 8st 9lbs so receiving 12lbs from main rival Cheng Gong. He is 1-23 at Chelmsford for just 4% and 1-61 for 1.64% since December 2019. He has ridden 23 winners but his career has clearly stalled. Although he has been given 248 rides they are not from the Premier League trainers, though 1-4 for 25% for Morrison is a slight positive. When considering winning/losing distances these things matter, should he lose out in a photo-finish these figures will take on huge relevance! Something to ponder but conversely we know Hughie Morrison does not suffer fools, he is very astute and we were lucky to meet him and chat at the 2017 Melbourne Cup.

CHELSEA BANHAM has only employed 6 jockeys to ride for her so far (124 runners) and her partner Joey has ridden 117 of them scoring 13 winners for 11%. Her runner Lady Of York has won at this course twice this year, in fact the trainer has sent her 6yo mare to Chelmsford 9 times in total, for 2 wins 2 seconds and 1 third place, so she clearly handles the track and surface.

1 CHENG GONG 11/2 (2nd)  2 Affair 7/2 (3rd)  3 Lady Of York 17/2 (6th)

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