SECOND SLIP 6.05 Salisbury at 11/8

British EBF Novice Stakes (Class 4) (3yo+) 1m1f204y

Pedigree: (60,000gns vendor Y); 8th foal; half-brother to winners Iltemas (French 1m4f Listed; RPR 100), Guilty Twelve (US 1m3f turf Grade 3; 100) and St Malo (12.4f/1m6f inc AW 91); dam Group-placed 9.4f winner (100), closely related to Irish 1,000 winner Again

THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE

Trainer Form: 3-21 for 14%      (10)
RPR: 72                         (10)                                             
Optimum Ground: Good            (10)        
Optimum Distance: 1m2f          (10)
Jockey: George Wood              (9)    
Total:                          (49)

Main danger: Cadeau Dor 7/4

Best recent form and progress expected

Second Slip has easily the best recent form having finished clear of the rest when runner-up to the much more experienced Stoute runner Crystal Pegasus at 4/11, rated 87, over today’s trip at Bath. James Fanshawe’s charge can land this with normal progress. He is a half brother to winners Iltemas (French 1m4f Listed; RPR 100) and Guilty Twelve ( US 1m3f turf Grade 3; 100) so our 72 RPR can be expected to hit something way in excess of 72 with faster ground to suit. The stable's runners invariably improve for an outing so the run at 18/1 should be upgraded and there should be much better to come.

Trainer form

Trainer James Fanshawe has his horses running well. August and September show 9-58 for 16% (+4.88). At Salisbury he records 25-143 for 17% (-6.30). Both figures are above his national average of 14%. George Wood rides and the combination 55-389 for 14%.

Contenders

Main danger Cadeau D'or showed some ability over a mile at Sandown on last year’s debut when well behind the smart Miss Yoda and steps up in distance on his belated return to action. The remainder are harder to recommend with Jacinta De Vega and Irene's Dream perhaps the most likely improvers while Riqaaby has switched yards having ran in a couple of bumpers in Ireland so far.

Timeform

 SECOND SLIP had little chance with a useful rival starting out at Bath 18 days ago, but he beat the rest easily enough so it has to go down as a very promising debut. With main rival Cadeau d'Or off the track for a year, this looks to be a good opening.

 The 11/8 looks to be north of value as his main rival has been off the track for some time and ought to need the run. We would have taken 5/4 but as we update we are nibbling at 2.76 and 2.78 with the Betfair Exchange and that looks fabulous value.

11 Ghaiyyath           1.62       1.00
10 Second Slip         2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +4.10  S/R 60%
 9 Rich Dream          2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +2.73  S/R 56%
 8 John Locke          2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +1.63  S/R 50%
 7 Tawleed             1.83  WIN  2.00  +1.66  +0.26  S/R 43%
 6 Galata Bridge       2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  -1.40  S/R 33%
 5 Nature Strip        1.61  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.50  S/R 20%
 4 Sharing             2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  -1.50  S/R 25%
 3 Bint Australia      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.00  S/R  0%
 2 Amtiyaz             2.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R  0%
 1 Local Law           3.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

(2521211111) FINISHED First or Second (90.00%)

(DSDSSSDSSS) SHORTENS in price (70.00%)

30 Legal Attack        2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  -2.01  S/R  53%
29 Party At Page's     2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  -3.11  S/R  52%
28 Lone Eagle          1.80  WIN  2.00  +1.60  -4.11  S/R  50%
27 Uss Nimitz          2.62  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.71  S/R  48%
26 Patient Dream       2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  -4.71  S/R  50%
25 Mostly              2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.96  S/R  48%
24 Crystal Pegasus R4  2.37  WIN  1.00  +0.97  -4.96  S/R  50%
23 Passional           2.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.93  S/R  48%
22 Finisk River        1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -4.93  S/R  50%
21 Arctic Victory      1.57  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.73  S/R  48%
20 Rewaayat            2.20  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -4.73  S/R  50%
19 Love                1.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  -3.73  S/R  53%
18 Mogul               3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -4.23  S/R  50%
17 Renaissance Rose    1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  -3.23  S/R  53%
16 Guru                1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.67  S/R  50%
15 Sangha River        1.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.67  S/R  53%
14 Arctician           1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.67  S/R  57%
13 Etoile              2.20  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.67  S/R  62%
12 Pearl Beach         2.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.33  S/R  67%
11 Non-Runner (S & R4) 5.50  WIN  1.25  +0.25  +1.33  S/R  73%     
10 Isle Of May         2.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.08  S/R  70%
 9 Headscarf Lil       1.83  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.08  S/R  78%
 8 Stunning Beauty R4  1.50  WIN  1.00  +0.43  +3.08  S/R  88%
 7 Gamine              1.57  WIN  1.00  +0.57  +2.65  S/R  86%
 6 Dandys Derriere     1.62  WIN  1.00  +0.62  +2.08  S/R  83%
 5 Courtandbould       1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +1.46  S/R  80%
 4 Nash Nasha          1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +0.79  S/R  75%
 3 Rival (S)           3.00  LOSE 1.20  -1.20  +0.12  S/R  67%
 2 Galata Bridge       1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +1.32  S/R 100%
 1 Ontario R4          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.60  +0.60  S/R 100%

(115111112613222513125121413111) FINISHED First or Second (73.33%)

(SSSSSSSSSSSSSDSSSDSDSSSSSSDSSS) SHORTENS in price (86.67%)

*24 Rule 4: 30p in the £

*11 Pacafi non-runner but saver Iron Heart backed at 9/2 at 0.25 then R4.

*8 Rule 4: 15p in the £

*1 Rule 4: 25p in the £

~

29 The Distant Lady    1.72  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.45  S/R  45%
28 New Chapter R4      1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +1.45  S/R  46%
27 Arctic Victory      2.37  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.88  S/R  44%
26 Franconia           1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +1.88  S/R  46%      
25 Credible            1.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.16  S/R  44%
24 Al Rufaa            3.75  WIN   1.00  +2.75  +2.16  S/R  46%
23 Sadiqaa             2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.59  S/R  43%
22 Heaven Forfend      1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.41  S/R  45%
21 Fev Rover (S)       2.75  WIN   1.25  +1.50  +1.41  S/R  48%
20 Method              2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  -0.09  S/R  45%
19 Buttsbury Lady      3.75  WIN   1.00  +2.75  -1.09  S/R  42%
18 Aroha               2.37  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.84  S/R  39%
17 Volkan Star         1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  -2.84  S/R  41%
16 Vibrance (S)        2.75  LOSE  1.25  -0.31  -3.37  S/R  38%
15 Le Reveur           2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  -3.06  S/R  40% 
14 Monument Valley     1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -4.31  S/R  36%
13 Finest Sound (S)    3.25  LOSE  1.30  -1.30  -3.31  S/R  38%   
12 Dilligent Lady      1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.01  S/R  42%
11 Sardinia Sunset R4  2.63  WIN   1.00  +1.40  -1.01  S/R  46%
10 Brazen Belle        2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.41  S/R  40%
 9 Southern Cape       1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  -1.41  S/R  44%
 8 Crystal Pegasus     1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.08  S/R  38%
 7 Escapability        2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.08  S/R  43%
 6 Enable              2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.08  S/R  50%
 5 Cross Counter (S)   2.87  WIN   1.30  +0.05  +0.92  S/R  60%
 4 Billesdon Brook     2.20  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.87  S/R  50%
 3 Dawaaween           2.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.87  S/R  67%
 2 Dark Lion           1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +2.87  S/R 100%
 1 Basilicata          3.25  WIN   1.00  +2.25  +2.25  S/R 100%

(11223232131332131211135121213) FINISHED First or Second (68.97%)

(DSSDSSSDSSSSDSSSSDDDSSDSSSSS) SHORTENS in price (72.41%)

*21 SP was 9/4 (5/2 easily available) only 7/4 recorded.

*11 Rule 4: 15p in the £

*5 Stake-saver gave us a small profit on the race.

***