5.30 Salisbury: Venture Security Handicap (Class 6) (3yo 0-65) 6f

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Today we look at another low class handicap (14 runners) and use common sense/mathematical filters to sort the contenders from the pretenders. These filters are explained in this RATIONALE

  1. TRAINER FORM
  2. JOCKEY COMPETENCE
  3. CLASS
  4. FORM
  5. GROUND/SURFACE
  6. DISTANCE
  7. SINCE LAST RUN
  8. DRAW

5.30 Salisbury: Venture Security Handicap (Class 6) (3yo 0-65) 6f

                     1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8  
 1 Knight's Gate:    ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ 0   88
 2 Morning Fury:     ♥ ♥ ♥ 0 ♥ ♥ 0 ♥   75   
 3 Good Earth:       ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥  100     
 4 Nibras Shadow:    ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥  100
 8 Bonus:            ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥  100
 9 Spring Campaign:  ♥ ♥ ♥ 0 0 ♥ ♥ 0   63
10 Flip Mode:        X 
11 Molly Shaw:       ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ 0   88
12 Al Simmo:         X
13 Diamond Cottage:  ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ 0   88
14 Gherkin:          X

♥ Affirmative 0 Negative X Eliminated

Contenders

 The final set of figures show the trainer's national average strike rate, their current form over the last 14 days and their strike rate at Salisbury. We measure current and course form against their national average.

 3 Good Earth 100: Good 4th last, coming down weights
 4 Nibras Shadow 100: Blinkers 1st time, stiffer track suit?   
 8 Bonus 100: 1-3 this year, hood 1st time
 3 Good Earth:    J Osborne  11%  1-22 for  5% (-6%)   4% (-7%)
 4 Nibras Shadow: I Mohammed 14%  1-14 for  7% (-7%)   9% (-5%)
 8 Bonus:         J Boyle     8%  2-11 for 18% (+10%)  6% (-2%)

 JAMIE OSBORNE is showing very moderate form and has poor course stats. His runner Good Earth was a respectable fourth of 13 in handicap at 13/2 at this course over 5f on good to soft ground 8 days ago so enters calculations especially from a place point of view.

The trainer form aggregate for our contenders is not inspiring or is it? ISMAIL MOHAMMED shows a healthy national average of 14% which is much better than his rival trainers but interestingly August 2020 showed him score his best figures to date with 4 winners from just 10 runners for 40% and a level stake profit of +37.50. Yes, he is yet to score for September but nearly all of those runners have been at very big prices and not expected to be placed yet alone win. We are not a fan of this trainer, he is one of those who blames others for things that go wrong re shock therapy and drugs.

JOM BOYLE'S runner Bonus came back a different horse for his handicap debut at Yarmouth in mid-June following a gelded operation, attracting a bit of support beforehand, then looking a cut above the moderate Class 6 grade. Ridden patiently, he made a big move from rear to lead around 1f out and, despite edging left, stamped his authority close home. Related to numerous winning sprinters, he looked the type to win more races through the handicapping ranks and 14/1 looks a BIG PRICE! His horses are running well and 2 of his last 9 have won with the others running well

1 BONUS 14/1 (Bet365, William Hill & BetVictor)  2 Nibras Shadow 13/2 (William Hill)  3 Good Earth 13/2 (Bet365, William Hill & Unibet)

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

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