PACAFI (13 September 2020)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

JADOOMI 3.05 Wolverhampton at 4/6

British EBF Novice Stakes (Class 5) (2yo) 7f36y

Pedigree: E75,000 Y; third foal; half-brother to Scandinavian 10.5f/1m4f winner Meandyoutwo; dam 7f winner, sister to French 2,000 Guineas winner Tin Horse, half-sister to 1m 2yo Listed winner Becomes You out of 1m 2yo Group 3 winner

THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE

Trainer Form: 8-27 for 30%    (10)
OR & RPR: 84 & 88             (10)                                             
Optimum Ground: Good/Std      (10)        
Optimum Distance: 7f          (10)
Jockey: Jack Mitchell         (10)    
Total:                        (50)

Main danger: Eloquent Arthur 11/2

 Jadoomi was a late foal (7 May). Dam won at 7f. He has been placed in both starts. Third of 13 behind Gorytus beaten 2 3/4l as the 11/10fav on his latest outing at York over 7f on good ground in July.

 Solid form

Jadoomi is a 75,000euro yearling out of a sister to a French 2,000 Guineas winner, he's likely to improve on his first two runs. On debut at Haydock in a Class 5 Novice over 7f on good ground Jadoomi stayed on steadily from midfield to finish third in the style of one who'll be suited by further in time. His second run was also in a Class 5 Novice but at York and he was expected to win being backed into the 11/10 favourite and ran a decent race finishing third again. The form has worked out well from both races. 

Draw of some significance

There are one or two interesting newcomers in tomorrows race but any of those will have to run to mark in the high 80s to beat the Pacafi and that is probably unlikely. Jadoomi has drawn stall 2 and has the early pace to get out and take a sit. Interesting his three main dangers on paper have drawn 12, 11 and 9 respectively and to beat our bet will have to come around the houses on this tight track to do so. His trainer Simon Crisford sends him to Wolverhampton instead of Sandown on Wednesday to shed his maiden tag. A slight negative is his charge has not run for 56 days so might have had a hiccup.

Trainer form

The Simon & Ed Crisford team have a fantastic national average of 21% but they are currently smashing that with a 30% strike rate over the past 13 days with 8 winners from their last 26 runners. Initially it does look as if Ed has added something to the team and it will be interesting to see if that 21% is maintained to the end of the season. Our view is that it will.

Contenders

Eloquent Arthur left his debut form well behind when running on into third place in a Novice at Bath over 6f on good to firm ground and could do better stepping up in trip. Naamoos is a €115,000 yearling, Wootton Bassett colt and a brother to 9.5f winner Qurtaj out of an unraced dam and worth monitoring in the betting.

Timeform

 JADOOMI sets the bar high after twice finishing third in good novices at Haydock and York so is taken to open his account here for the in-form Crisford yard. The market will no doubt reveal plenty about the seven newcomers on show, but Naamoos, Yagan and Kayfast Warrior appeal as the most likely candidates to trouble the favourite

 The 4/6 looks about the right price and not sure if we can claim perceived value. The start of a race is always important but our view is if Jadoomi bags the rail then leads or races one back, his current form-line should be enough without improvement!

UPDATE: We are currently nibbling on the Exchange at around 1.82 (Sunday 07.13) and that MUST BE VALUE!

12 Jadoomi             1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +3.77  S/R 58%
11 Ghaiyyath           1.62  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +3.10  S/R 55%
10 Second Slip         2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +4.10  S/R 60%
 9 Rich Dream          2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +2.73  S/R 56%
 8 John Locke          2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +1.63  S/R 50%
 7 Tawleed             1.83  WIN  2.00  +1.66  +0.26  S/R 43%
 6 Galata Bridge       2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  -1.40  S/R 33%
 5 Nature Strip        1.61  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.50  S/R 20%
 4 Sharing             2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  -1.50  S/R 25%
 3 Bint Australia      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.00  S/R  0%
 2 Amtiyaz             2.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R  0%
 1 Local Law           3.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

SEPTEMBER: 12 WIN: 7  LOSE: 5  S/R 58%  PROFIT: +3.77

(252121111121) FINISHED First or Second (91.67%)

(DSDSSSDSSSSS) SHORTENS in price (75.00%)

30 Legal Attack        2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  -2.01  S/R  53%
29 Party At Page's     2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  -3.11  S/R  52%
28 Lone Eagle          1.80  WIN  2.00  +1.60  -4.11  S/R  50%
27 Uss Nimitz          2.62  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.71  S/R  48%
26 Patient Dream       2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  -4.71  S/R  50%
25 Mostly              2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.96  S/R  48%
24 Crystal Pegasus R4  2.37  WIN  1.00  +0.97  -4.96  S/R  50%
23 Passional           2.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.93  S/R  48%
22 Finisk River        1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -4.93  S/R  50%
21 Arctic Victory      1.57  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.73  S/R  48%
20 Rewaayat            2.20  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -4.73  S/R  50%
19 Love                1.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  -3.73  S/R  53%
18 Mogul               3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -4.23  S/R  50%
17 Renaissance Rose    1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  -3.23  S/R  53%
16 Guru                1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.67  S/R  50%
15 Sangha River        1.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.67  S/R  53%
14 Arctician           1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.67  S/R  57%
13 Etoile              2.20  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.67  S/R  62%
12 Pearl Beach         2.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.33  S/R  67%
11 Non-Runner (S & R4) 5.50  WIN  1.25  +0.25  +1.33  S/R  73%     
10 Isle Of May         2.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.08  S/R  70%
 9 Headscarf Lil       1.83  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.08  S/R  78%
 8 Stunning Beauty R4  1.50  WIN  1.00  +0.43  +3.08  S/R  88%
 7 Gamine              1.57  WIN  1.00  +0.57  +2.65  S/R  86%
 6 Dandys Derriere     1.62  WIN  1.00  +0.62  +2.08  S/R  83%
 5 Courtandbould       1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +1.46  S/R  80%
 4 Nash Nasha          1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +0.79  S/R  75%
 3 Rival (S)           3.00  LOSE 1.20  -1.20  +0.12  S/R  67%
 2 Galata Bridge       1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +1.32  S/R 100%
 1 Ontario R4          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.60  +0.60  S/R 100%

AUGUST: 30 WIN: 16  LOSE: 14  S/R 53%  LOSS: -2.01

(115111112613222513125121413111) FINISHED First or Second (73.33%)

(SSSSSSSSSSSSSDSSSDSDSSSSSSDSSS) SHORTENS in price (86.67%)

*24 Rule 4: 30p in the £

*11 Pacafi non-runner but saver Iron Heart backed at 9/2 at 0.25 then R4.

*8 Rule 4: 15p in the £

*1 Rule 4: 25p in the £

29 The Distant Lady    1.72  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.45  S/R  45%
28 New Chapter R4      1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +1.45  S/R  46%
27 Arctic Victory      2.37  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.88  S/R  44%
26 Franconia           1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +1.88  S/R  46%      
25 Credible            1.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.16  S/R  44%
24 Al Rufaa            3.75  WIN   1.00  +2.75  +2.16  S/R  46%
23 Sadiqaa             2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.59  S/R  43%
22 Heaven Forfend      1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.41  S/R  45%
21 Fev Rover (S)       2.75  WIN   1.25  +1.50  +1.41  S/R  48%
20 Method              2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  -0.09  S/R  45%
19 Buttsbury Lady      3.75  WIN   1.00  +2.75  -1.09  S/R  42%
18 Aroha               2.37  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.84  S/R  39%
17 Volkan Star         1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  -2.84  S/R  41%
16 Vibrance (S)        2.75  LOSE  1.25  -0.31  -3.37  S/R  38%
15 Le Reveur           2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  -3.06  S/R  40% 
14 Monument Valley     1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -4.31  S/R  36%
13 Finest Sound (S)    3.25  LOSE  1.30  -1.30  -3.31  S/R  38%   
12 Dilligent Lady      1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.01  S/R  42%
11 Sardinia Sunset R4  2.63  WIN   1.00  +1.40  -1.01  S/R  46%
10 Brazen Belle        2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.41  S/R  40%
 9 Southern Cape       1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  -1.41  S/R  44%
 8 Crystal Pegasus     1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.08  S/R  38%
 7 Escapability        2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.08  S/R  43%
 6 Enable              2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.08  S/R  50%
 5 Cross Counter (S)   2.87  WIN   1.30  +0.05  +0.92  S/R  60%
 4 Billesdon Brook     2.20  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.87  S/R  50%
 3 Dawaaween           2.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.87  S/R  67%
 2 Dark Lion           1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +2.87  S/R 100%
 1 Basilicata          3.25  WIN   1.00  +2.25  +2.25  S/R 100%

JULY: 29 WIN: 13  LOSE: 16  S/R 45%  PROFIT: +0.45

(11223232131332131211135121213) FINISHED First or Second (68.97%)

(DSSDSSSDSSSSDSSSSDDDSSDSSSSS) SHORTENS in price (72.41%)

*21 SP was 9/4 (5/2 easily available) only 7/4 recorded.

*11 Rule 4: 15p in the £

*5 Stake-saver gave us a small profit on the race.

***

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