PACAFI (14 September 2020)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Welcome to NO RISK BETTING. Following the advice of the Pacafi rationale cannot lose money, but first we ask the reader to absorb the rationale and make up their own mind regarding  the winning chance and perceived value of each nomination. This is not a tip, it is the reason we are backing this filly...

FINAL THOUGHT 6.50 Wolverhampton at 7/4

1m1f104y) Follow At The Races On Twitter Nursery Handicap (Class 5) (2yo 0-75)

Pedigree: Fourth foal; half-sister to winners Dubai Future (1m2f-1m4f inc AW; RPR 105) and Rivercat (French 12.5f); dam 1m-1m4f winner (inc GB at 2/AW/US 1m4f Grade 3; 105), half-sister to US 1m2f Gr 2 winner Giants Play out of Fillies' Mile/Lancashire Oaks winner

THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE

Trainer Form: 3-4 for 75%     (10)
OR: 75                        (10)                                             
Optimum Ground: Good/Std      (10)        
Optimum Distance: 1m1f+       (10)
Jockey: Callum Shepherd       (10)    
Total:                        (50)

Main danger: Eagles Realm 6/1

 Godolphin Comments: Final Thought is a half-sister to a couple of winners including Dubai Future (1m2f-1m4f inc AW; RPR 105); staying-on fourth of nine in 7f maiden at Beverley in August 2020 and improved on that when second of five at Yarmouth (1m) later the same month.

 Runner-up to Group 2 winner last time

Final Thought was runner-up to a subsequent Group 2 winner on her second start at Yarmouth and a good run from Mystery Show (3rd in that race) earlier on the card would enhance her claims in this nursery. It seemed a strange decision given the Pacafi ran on good to firm ground on debut, she was then asked to win on soft ground second up! The Sea The Stars filly travelled nicely enough whilst looking for a step up in trip soon and certainly next year.

Conditions of race to suit

The mark of 75 doesn't look overly harsh and though there are only 8 runners racing over 1m1f we like the stall 2 given the horse has early pace to either lead or take a sit on the rail. Worth reminding ourselves her half-brother Dubai Future hated soft ground and won on the AW and good to firm ground over 1m4f so our filly should be prominent yet hit the line hard! Her mother was 1-1 at Wolverhampton.

Trainer form

Saeed bin Suroor has hit form with a vengeance as 3 of his last 4 runners have won. His national average is 22% but he has not been hitting anywhere near those figures since October 2019. In fact since June he shows a poor 24-173 for 14% so minus 8% of where he should be. At Wolverhampton he has tremendous figures of 89-285 for 31% and 9% above his NA. His 2yos at the course score 36-113 for 32% so another step up. This is his only runner today and he has booked Callum Shepherd to ride and not a senior jockey.

Jockey booking

The Racing Horse likes Callum Shepherd (8st 5lbs) and we have advised the trainer to give him more rides. He has ridden the half-brother named of Final Thought for Godolphin twice and has won and came second. It is this continuity the trainer lacks post Frankie Dettori and one reason why Charlie Appleby does so much better than him! Shepherd had a nice winner for this trainer yesterday at Chelmsford and this is another opportunity to cement a place within Godolphin. He is currently a 10% national average jockey but well ahead of that figure post the resumption and he is getting better all the time. He is now 15-74 for 20% when riding for Saeed bin Suroor so double his NA. He has 4 rides at the course today.

Contenders

Eagle's Realm gets cheekpieces after disappointing at Ayr but is closely related to Group winners and is respected in the shrewd hands of Sir Mark Prescott. Glowing For Gold produced a much-improved performance to score at Chelmsford and it will be interesting to see if he can follow that up. Zookeeper looks the best of the rest

Timeform

 FINAL THOUGHT knew more about the game when runner-up on her second start at Yarmouth last month and is taken to get off the mark here. Glowing For Gold and Eagle's Realm are feared most.

 The 5/2 with William Hill never really existed and nor did the 2/1. Small money was available with the firm for about 5 minutes, so is 7/4 perceived value - we believe it is, we priced the filly closer to 11/8.

Context

INDIGO GIRL who beat the Pacafi at Yarmouth has since won the May Hill Group 2 at Doncaster and now carries a RPR of 106. Today's race is a Nursery Handicap Class 5 for 2yo 0-75. We will be disappointed if the filly cannot win this race given what she has shown so far and we had considered 2pts win but happy to go 1pt win advised...

WOLVERHAMTPON RACECOURSE TEMPLATE

13 Final Thoughts      2.75  WIN  1.00  +1.75  +5.52  S/R 62%
12 Jadoomi             1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +3.77  S/R 58%
11 Ghaiyyath           1.62  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +3.10  S/R 55%
10 Second Slip         2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +4.10  S/R 60%
 9 Rich Dream          2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +2.73  S/R 56%
 8 John Locke          2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +1.63  S/R 50%
 7 Tawleed             1.83  WIN  2.00  +1.66  +0.26  S/R 43%
 6 Galata Bridge       2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  -1.40  S/R 33%
 5 Nature Strip        1.61  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.50  S/R 20%
 4 Sharing             2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  -1.50  S/R 25%
 3 Bint Australia      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.00  S/R  0%
 2 Amtiyaz             2.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R  0%
 1 Local Law           3.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

SEPTEMBER: 13 WIN: 8  LOSE: 5  S/R 62%  PROFIT: +5.52

(2521211111211) FINISHED First or Second (92.31%)

(DSDSSSDSSSSSS) SHORTENS in price (76.92%)

30 Legal Attack        2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  -2.01  S/R  53%
29 Party At Page's     2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  -3.11  S/R  52%
28 Lone Eagle          1.80  WIN  2.00  +1.60  -4.11  S/R  50%
27 Uss Nimitz          2.62  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.71  S/R  48%
26 Patient Dream       2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  -4.71  S/R  50%
25 Mostly              2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.96  S/R  48%
24 Crystal Pegasus R4  2.37  WIN  1.00  +0.97  -4.96  S/R  50%
23 Passional           2.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.93  S/R  48%
22 Finisk River        1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -4.93  S/R  50%
21 Arctic Victory      1.57  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.73  S/R  48%
20 Rewaayat            2.20  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -4.73  S/R  50%
19 Love                1.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  -3.73  S/R  53%
18 Mogul               3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -4.23  S/R  50%
17 Renaissance Rose    1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  -3.23  S/R  53%
16 Guru                1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.67  S/R  50%
15 Sangha River        1.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.67  S/R  53%
14 Arctician           1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.67  S/R  57%
13 Etoile              2.20  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.67  S/R  62%
12 Pearl Beach         2.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.33  S/R  67%
11 Non-Runner (S & R4) 5.50  WIN  1.25  +0.25  +1.33  S/R  73%     
10 Isle Of May         2.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.08  S/R  70%
 9 Headscarf Lil       1.83  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.08  S/R  78%
 8 Stunning Beauty R4  1.50  WIN  1.00  +0.43  +3.08  S/R  88%
 7 Gamine              1.57  WIN  1.00  +0.57  +2.65  S/R  86%
 6 Dandys Derriere     1.62  WIN  1.00  +0.62  +2.08  S/R  83%
 5 Courtandbould       1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +1.46  S/R  80%
 4 Nash Nasha          1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +0.79  S/R  75%
 3 Rival (S)           3.00  LOSE 1.20  -1.20  +0.12  S/R  67%
 2 Galata Bridge       1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +1.32  S/R 100%
 1 Ontario R4          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.60  +0.60  S/R 100%

AUGUST: 30 WIN: 16  LOSE: 14  S/R 53%  LOSS: -2.01

(115111112613222513125121413111) FINISHED First or Second (73.33%)

(SSSSSSSSSSSSSDSSSDSDSSSSSSDSSS) SHORTENS in price (86.67%)

*24 Rule 4: 30p in the £

*11 Pacafi non-runner but saver Iron Heart backed at 9/2 at 0.25 then R4.

*8 Rule 4: 15p in the £

*1 Rule 4: 25p in the £

29 The Distant Lady    1.72  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.45  S/R  45%
28 New Chapter R4      1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +1.45  S/R  46%
27 Arctic Victory      2.37  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.88  S/R  44%
26 Franconia           1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +1.88  S/R  46%      
25 Credible            1.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.16  S/R  44%
24 Al Rufaa            3.75  WIN   1.00  +2.75  +2.16  S/R  46%
23 Sadiqaa             2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.59  S/R  43%
22 Heaven Forfend      1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.41  S/R  45%
21 Fev Rover (S)       2.75  WIN   1.25  +1.50  +1.41  S/R  48%
20 Method              2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  -0.09  S/R  45%
19 Buttsbury Lady      3.75  WIN   1.00  +2.75  -1.09  S/R  42%
18 Aroha               2.37  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.84  S/R  39%
17 Volkan Star         1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  -2.84  S/R  41%
16 Vibrance (S)        2.75  LOSE  1.25  -0.31  -3.37  S/R  38%
15 Le Reveur           2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  -3.06  S/R  40% 
14 Monument Valley     1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -4.31  S/R  36%
13 Finest Sound (S)    3.25  LOSE  1.30  -1.30  -3.31  S/R  38%   
12 Dilligent Lady      1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.01  S/R  42%
11 Sardinia Sunset R4  2.63  WIN   1.00  +1.40  -1.01  S/R  46%
10 Brazen Belle        2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.41  S/R  40%
 9 Southern Cape       1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  -1.41  S/R  44%
 8 Crystal Pegasus     1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.08  S/R  38%
 7 Escapability        2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.08  S/R  43%
 6 Enable              2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.08  S/R  50%
 5 Cross Counter (S)   2.87  WIN   1.30  +0.05  +0.92  S/R  60%
 4 Billesdon Brook     2.20  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.87  S/R  50%
 3 Dawaaween           2.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.87  S/R  67%
 2 Dark Lion           1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +2.87  S/R 100%
 1 Basilicata          3.25  WIN   1.00  +2.25  +2.25  S/R 100%

JULY: 29 WIN: 13  LOSE: 16  S/R 45%  PROFIT: +0.45

(11223232131332131211135121213) FINISHED First or Second (68.97%)

(DSSDSSSDSSSSDSSSSDDDSSDSSSSS) SHORTENS in price (72.41%)

*21 SP was 9/4 (5/2 easily available) only 7/4 recorded.

*11 Rule 4: 15p in the £

*5 Stake-saver gave us a small profit on the race.

***

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