PACAFI (15 September 2020)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Welcome to NO RISK BETTING. Following the advice of the Pacafi rationale cannot lose money, but first we ask the reader to absorb the rationale and make up their own mind regarding  the winning chance and perceived value of each nomination. This is not a tip, it is the reason we are backing the Mark Johnston colt at considered perceived value but with a part stake-saver on a William Haggas newcomer!

TOUSSAROK 2.00 Yarmouth at 2.92

British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (Class 5) (2yo) 6f3y

Pedigree: 75,000gns Y; third foal; half-brother to 7f-1m winner Tropbeau (inc 2yo Group 2; RPR 111); dam 6f AW/7f turf winner (78), half-sister to useful 6f-7f winner Greensward out of 6f Group 1 (July Cup) winning sister to 6f Listed winner Firenze

THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE

Trainer Form: 11-89 for 12%   (10)←
OR & RPR: 83 & 92             (10)                                             
Optimum Ground: Good          (10)        
Optimum Distance: 6f          (10)
Jockey: Franny Norton         (10)    
Total:                        (50)

Main danger: Conservatoire 9/4 (Bet365 bpg)

 Foaled 22 February. A winner at 6f on the all-weather. Beaten 11l behind Cairn Island at 17/2 when 9th of 12 on his latest outing at York over 6f on good ground last month.

 Rated 83 in a week race against trainers out of form

This has a look of a two-horse race even if one of those has shown no form to date, especially given the form of the trainers outside of our two nominations. After a winning debut at Newcastle and a good second at Ascot, Toussarok was disappointing in a valuable handicap at York last month and now has to bounce back but this looks a weak Class 5 Novice race for an 83 rated runner.

Trainer form

The mathematics are on our side.Mark Johnston is in reasonable form though his current 12% strike rate is below his national average of 14%. At Yarmouth he records 22-174 for 13% with his 2yos though 60-440 for 14% generally. He sends 6 out today to race at 3 courses and this one looks his best chance of a winner.

Context

TOUSSAROK - Mark Johnston      11-89 for 12%
CONSERVATOIRE - William Haggas  5-52 for 10%
RAZOR GLASS - Robert Cowell     1-12 for  8%
MOPS GEM - Micheal Appleby      2-36 for  6%
KHUFU - Louise Allan            0-13 for  0%
GOOD COP - James Eustace        0-17 for  0%
POWER THRUST - Tom Clover       0-23 for  0%
MINSKY - John Butler            0-24 for  0%
INVER PARK - Mick Quinn         0-28 for  0%

 So, although Johnston is not in top form nor are any of the trainers. Some of those listed have been on long losing runs and not figures for the last 14 days. It is hard in recent years to see figures of 5-52 for William Haggas and a real blip. A longer look at his form show with his last 52 runners he has recorded 15 second places and many of those beaten by narrow margins!

Contender

Conservatoire is a half-sister to a useful 7f winner and warrants the utmost respect on debut in the Cheveley Park silks for William Haggas. She may want further in time, but no surprise was she to make an impact in this company. She receives a useful 11lbs from the Pacafi and that makes her dangerous hence our part stake-saver. She will have to produce a run in the 80s and on debut anything can happen so a bit of an ask but she is trained by William Haggas. We are not looking at any other contenders!

Timeform

 This doesn't look the strongest of novices so CONSERVATOIRE, a well-bred newcomer from a top yard, is fancied to get her career off to the perfect start. Toussarok ran below form on his nursery debut last time but is a previous winner so has to be respected back in novice company, while Razor Glass is another debutante to note.

 The 2.92 to 2.94 looks on the north side of value but there is no knowing how good Conservatoire will be on debut. The paddock will tell us a lot more about the Haggas filly but if our Pacafi runs to his rating will be hard to beat by a first time upper.

14 Toussarok (S)       2.92       1.25
13 Final Thoughts      2.75  WIN  1.00  +1.75  +5.52  S/R 62%
12 Jadoomi             1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +3.77  S/R 58%
11 Ghaiyyath           1.62  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +3.10  S/R 55%
10 Second Slip         2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +4.10  S/R 60%
 9 Rich Dream          2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +2.73  S/R 56%
 8 John Locke          2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +1.63  S/R 50%
 7 Tawleed             1.83  WIN  2.00  +1.66  +0.26  S/R 43%
 6 Galata Bridge       2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  -1.40  S/R 33%
 5 Nature Strip        1.61  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.50  S/R 20%
 4 Sharing             2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  -1.50  S/R 25%
 3 Bint Australia      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.00  S/R  0%
 2 Amtiyaz             2.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R  0%
 1 Local Law           3.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

SEPTEMBER: 13 WIN: 8  LOSE: 5  S/R 62%  PROFIT: +5.52

(2521211111211) FINISHED First or Second (92.31%)

~

30 Legal Attack        2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  -2.01  S/R  53%
29 Party At Page's     2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  -3.11  S/R  52%
28 Lone Eagle          1.80  WIN  2.00  +1.60  -4.11  S/R  50%
27 Uss Nimitz          2.62  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.71  S/R  48%
26 Patient Dream       2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  -4.71  S/R  50%
25 Mostly              2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.96  S/R  48%
24 Crystal Pegasus R4  2.37  WIN  1.00  +0.97  -4.96  S/R  50%
23 Passional           2.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.93  S/R  48%
22 Finisk River        1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -4.93  S/R  50%
21 Arctic Victory      1.57  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.73  S/R  48%
20 Rewaayat            2.20  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -4.73  S/R  50%
19 Love                1.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  -3.73  S/R  53%
18 Mogul               3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -4.23  S/R  50%
17 Renaissance Rose    1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  -3.23  S/R  53%
16 Guru                1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.67  S/R  50%
15 Sangha River        1.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.67  S/R  53%
14 Arctician           1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.67  S/R  57%
13 Etoile              2.20  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.67  S/R  62%
12 Pearl Beach         2.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.33  S/R  67%
11 Non-Runner (S & R4) 5.50  WIN  1.25  +0.25  +1.33  S/R  73%     
10 Isle Of May         2.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.08  S/R  70%
 9 Headscarf Lil       1.83  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.08  S/R  78%
 8 Stunning Beauty R4  1.50  WIN  1.00  +0.43  +3.08  S/R  88%
 7 Gamine              1.57  WIN  1.00  +0.57  +2.65  S/R  86%
 6 Dandys Derriere     1.62  WIN  1.00  +0.62  +2.08  S/R  83%
 5 Courtandbould       1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +1.46  S/R  80%
 4 Nash Nasha          1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +0.79  S/R  75%
 3 Rival (S)           3.00  LOSE 1.20  -1.20  +0.12  S/R  67%
 2 Galata Bridge       1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +1.32  S/R 100%
 1 Ontario R4          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.60  +0.60  S/R 100%

AUGUST: 30 WIN: 16  LOSE: 14  S/R 53%  LOSS: -2.01

(115111112613222513125121413111) FINISHED First or Second (73.33%)

(SSSSSSSSSSSSSDSSSDSDSSSSSSDSSS) SHORTENS in price (86.67%)

*24 Rule 4: 30p in the £

*11 Pacafi non-runner but saver Iron Heart backed at 9/2 at 0.25 then R4.

*8 Rule 4: 15p in the £

*1 Rule 4: 25p in the £

29 The Distant Lady    1.72  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.45  S/R  45%
28 New Chapter R4      1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +1.45  S/R  46%
27 Arctic Victory      2.37  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.88  S/R  44%
26 Franconia           1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +1.88  S/R  46%      
25 Credible            1.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.16  S/R  44%
24 Al Rufaa            3.75  WIN   1.00  +2.75  +2.16  S/R  46%
23 Sadiqaa             2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.59  S/R  43%
22 Heaven Forfend      1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.41  S/R  45%
21 Fev Rover (S)       2.75  WIN   1.25  +1.50  +1.41  S/R  48%
20 Method              2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  -0.09  S/R  45%
19 Buttsbury Lady      3.75  WIN   1.00  +2.75  -1.09  S/R  42%
18 Aroha               2.37  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.84  S/R  39%
17 Volkan Star         1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  -2.84  S/R  41%
16 Vibrance (S)        2.75  LOSE  1.25  -0.31  -3.37  S/R  38%
15 Le Reveur           2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  -3.06  S/R  40% 
14 Monument Valley     1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -4.31  S/R  36%
13 Finest Sound (S)    3.25  LOSE  1.30  -1.30  -3.31  S/R  38%   
12 Dilligent Lady      1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.01  S/R  42%
11 Sardinia Sunset R4  2.63  WIN   1.00  +1.40  -1.01  S/R  46%
10 Brazen Belle        2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.41  S/R  40%
 9 Southern Cape       1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  -1.41  S/R  44%
 8 Crystal Pegasus     1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.08  S/R  38%
 7 Escapability        2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.08  S/R  43%
 6 Enable              2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.08  S/R  50%
 5 Cross Counter (S)   2.87  WIN   1.30  +0.05  +0.92  S/R  60%
 4 Billesdon Brook     2.20  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.87  S/R  50%
 3 Dawaaween           2.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.87  S/R  67%
 2 Dark Lion           1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +2.87  S/R 100%
 1 Basilicata          3.25  WIN   1.00  +2.25  +2.25  S/R 100%

JULY: 29 WIN: 13  LOSE: 16  S/R 45%  PROFIT: +0.45

(11223232131332131211135121213) FINISHED First or Second (68.97%)

(DSSDSSSDSSSSDSSSSDDDSSDSSSSS) SHORTENS in price (72.41%)

*21 SP was 9/4 (5/2 easily available) only 7/4 recorded.

*11 Rule 4: 15p in the £

*5 Stake-saver gave us a small profit on the race.

***

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