PACAFI (16 September 2020)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Welcome to NO RISK BETTING. Following the advice of the Pacafi rationale cannot lose money, but first we ask the reader to absorb the rationale and make up their own mind regarding the winning chance and perceived value of each nomination. This is not a tip, it is the reason we are backing the William Haggas filly.

READY TO VENTURE 2.35 Yarmouth at 1.90

British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes (Class 5) (2yo) 7f3y

Pedigree: First foal; dam Group-placed 1m4f winner (RPR 108), half-sister to 6f-1m Group 1 winner George Washington, 1m2f Group 1 winner Grandera and 1m5f/1m6f Listed winner Sun Central out of Listed-placed 1m5f winner

THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE

Trainer Form: 4-7 for 57%     (10)
RPR: 91                       (10)                                             
Optimum Ground: Good          (10)        
Optimum Distance: 7f-1m       (10)
Jockey: Tom Marquand          (10)    
Total:                        (50)

Main danger: Encounter Order 5/1

 Ready To Venture is a Kingman filly who shaped with lots of encouragement when second of 10 in minor event at 13/2 at Newmarket over 7f on good to soft ground on debut 19 days ago, finishing well and not knocked about.

  Beaten by a good one on debut, this easier!

Ready To Venture looks hard to beat though we hope she runs better than Conservatoire at the same course yesterday. Since that disappointment the trainer won with his next two runners. The Pacafi made her debut in a decent Fillies' Novice at Newmarket and got beaten by A'Shaari who clearly loved the soft conditions and she is well regarded by Godolphin (has Group 2 & Group 1 entries), Ready To Venture is unlikely to meet anything of her calibre today and looks ready to step forward herself.shaped with promise, though was ultimately flattered by her proximity to the easy winner. She was well supported beforehand and did all her best work late on and looked certain to benefit from a step up to 1m on her next outing but Haggas keeps her to 7f for now.

Fancy entries

The filly runs at Yarmouth instead of Newbury on Friday in a Fillies' Conditions Stakes over 7f but she also has entries in the Shadwell Rockfel Stakes Group 2 at Newmarket over 7f on 25 September, and another in the Fillies' Mile Group 1 at Newmarket on 9 October (available at 50/1). So held in regard, she is expected to show a lot more and today is a Yarmouth Maiden Class 5.

Trainer form

Yesterday we talked about William Haggas and his current form and reminded members he recorded 15 second places in the last 14 days, this figure was always going to straighten a little and it did yesterday. Unfortunately for us, our stake saver got beat and his next two runners won at 11/10 and 9/2. Worth reminding members Haggas is still only 7-53 for 13% for September despite his win double yesterday and that strike rate must increase in the remainder of this month. At Yarmouth he does well without matching his national average of 23% and scores 113-581 for 19% and a level stake profit of +7.37. He sends 9 out today from his Newmarket stable and he looks likely to record a win double at least but possibly a treble.

Stop At A Winner?

Jockey form

Tom Marquand rides for the trainer and their combination shows 59-284 for 21%. He has ridden the most winners for Haggas this year scoring 23 compared to James Doyle's 14 so officially the favoured son. Marquand has a national average of just 12% but that will rise, this current year he has one of 14%. In context James Doyle's national average is 20%. This year Tom Marquand has figures 90-621 for 14% and returned a level stake profit of +48.51 winning £1,425,134 in prize money. The point of this paragraph is his national average is far too low for someone as good as him! Holly Doyle has a national average of 16% for this year and ridden 107 winners from 661. 

Contenders

Encounter Order might be the danger. he was highly tried on debut at York and showed signs of inexperience so better is expected. Fundamental cost 90,000gns and has a middle-distance pedigree so is one for the future but Whatzupwithme is a half-brother to the useful Juan Elcano and two other winners so is worth a market check.

Timeform

 READY TO VENTURE is a confident selection to get off the mark having shown plenty of promise when runner-up on debut at Newmarket last month. She wasn't given a hard time at all, and is open to significant improvement with that under her belt. Fundamental looks a noteworthy newcomer for John Gosden and he just shades the vote for second, ahead of Encounter Order.

 There was money available on the exchange from 1.90 to 2.02 and that must be value in context to our rationale. Regarding best price guaranteed 4/5 looks to be on the north side of value with Fundamental probably one for next year and a longer distance.

15 Ready To Venture    1.90  WIN  1.00  +0.85  +5.12  S/R 60%
14 Toussarok (S)       3.25  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  +4.27  S/R 57%
13 Final Thoughts      2.75  WIN  1.00  +1.75  +5.52  S/R 62%
12 Jadoomi             1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +3.77  S/R 58%
11 Ghaiyyath           1.62  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +3.10  S/R 55%
10 Second Slip         2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +4.10  S/R 60%
 9 Rich Dream          2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +2.73  S/R 56%
 8 John Locke          2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +1.63  S/R 50%
 7 Tawleed             1.83  WIN  2.00  +1.66  +0.26  S/R 43%
 6 Galata Bridge       2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  -1.40  S/R 33%
 5 Nature Strip        1.61  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.50  S/R 20%
 4 Sharing             2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  -1.50  S/R 25%
 3 Bint Australia      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.00  S/R  0%
 2 Amtiyaz             2.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R  0%
 1 Local Law           3.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

SEPTEMBER: 15 WIN: 9  LOSE: 6  S/R 60%  PROFIT: +5.12

(252121111121131) FINISHED First or Second (86.67%)

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