Welcome to NO RISK BETTING. Following the advice of the Pacafi rationale cannot lose money, but first we ask the reader to absorb the rationale and make up their own mind regarding the winning chance and perceived value of each nomination. This is not a tip, it is the reason we are backing the Simon Crisford filly who looks well-in.
AL SAARIYAH 4.40 Yarmouth at 5/4
Pedigree: 260,000gns Y; second foal; half-sister to Listed-placed 7f winner Light Blush (inc 2yo; RPR 96); dam 1m2f winner (inc Listed; 105), half-sister to Group-placed 11.7f winner Yankee Doodle and Listed-placed 6f winner Fontana Amorosa out of 1m2f winner
THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE
Trainer Form: 10-31 for 32% (10)
OR & RPR: 78 & 92 (10)
Optimum Ground: Good (10)
Optimum Distance: 6f (10)
Jockey: William Buick (10)
Main danger: Vedute 6/1
Foaled 7 March and placed twice in three starts. Beaten 1¾l by Alcohol Free when second of 9 as the 6/4 favourite on her latest outing at Newbury over 6f on good to soft ground last month.
Very well-in for nursery debut
Al Saariyah is a well-bred 260,000gns yearling who has finished runner-up on good to firm and good to soft the last twice, latterly at Newbury beating all bar a stylish winner who has since finished second in a Group 3. That one is now BHA rated 100, so off 78 here this filly could be very well-in for her nursery debut even if a tad flattered by that form, also the fourth has also impressed since.
Simon and Ed Crisford have their horses in fantastic form and flying above their national average of 23% with the last 14 days showing 10-31 for 32%. These are early days for this partnership but it is clearly working and building upon what Simon had started. One thing we notice is they put up the best jockeys on their horses irrespective of chance and of course will get a better level of feedback. Just a cursory look at the last 31 runners sent out it could be argued that the talented Kevin Stott was the weakest jockey to ride for them. Saeed bin Suroor please note!
We thought it might be a good idea to underline this point to members and list the jockeys who have ridden winners for the team and their combination strike rate and it probably proves there is a plan: Atzeni 9-25 for 36%, J Doyle 8-29 for 28%, Buick 7-26 for 27%, Mitchell 5-17 for 29%, Kirby 2-3 for 67%, McDonald 2-3 for 67%, Moore 2-3 for 67%, Cosgrave 1-2 for 50%, Dettori 1-1 for 100%, Havlin 1-6 for 17%, Shepherd 1-2 for 50% and Silvestre De Sousa, who seems to have lost his way in a comparative sense 1-13 for 8%.
It is too early to say what preferences they have for courses but noticeable their 40 winners contain 31 Turf winners so they are not plundering weak stuff on the AW and they could have done. Interesting to see the shape of their autumn campaign. The figures are solid and they are clearly going to be a force and so noticeable that Simon Crisford (ex Godolphin Racing Manager) is working in a totally different way to Saeed bin Suroor.
Saeed bin Suroor sends out his 2yo FIRST TARGET 6.30 Chelmsford later today and the stable won this race last year with the useful Dubai Icon and the trainer has enjoyed a purple patch lately. The 150,000gns yearling half-brother to useful sprinter Well Done Fox and debutant winner Excellently Poised looks a likely type on paper and Callum Shepherd (his top jockey this year with 7 wins) rides.
The Pacafi is preferred to Monza City, who has already been beaten twice off lower marks. Vedute had little chance at the weights in a valuable sales race at York four weeks ago but had gained a deserved win earlier at Bath and this is more his level, and looks the main danger. Charlie Fellowes has been frustrating to follow and is now tried in cheekpieces but Coco Bear has already won over track and trip so has a chance of sorts.
A winning nursery debut is on the cards for AL SAARIYAH, who has finished second in novice events at Haydock and Newbury the last twice, the winners of which have subsequently been placed in Group company. Judged on her Chepstow effort in June (plausible excuses since), Merry Secret is an appealing value angle for forecast purposes and Coco Bear is also a contender for the runner-up spot.
The 5/4 with Unibet looks to be perceived value given the above rationale. We have been nibbling at 2.38 to 2.50 on the exchange and happy with that.
One or two people are under the impression our first and second log is a cosmetic exercise - it is NOT! We will attempt to explain in our next blog...
16 Al Sayaariyah R4 2.25 WIN 1.00 +1.12 +6.24 S/R 63%
15 Ready To Venture 1.90 WIN 1.00 +0.85 +5.12 S/R 60%
14 Toussarok (S) 3.25 LOSE 1.25 -1.25 +4.27 S/R 57%
13 Final Thoughts 2.75 WIN 1.00 +1.75 +5.52 S/R 62%
12 Jadoomi 1.67 WIN 1.00 +0.67 +3.77 S/R 58%
11 Ghaiyyath 1.62 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +3.10 S/R 55%
10 Second Slip 2.37 WIN 1.00 +1.37 +4.10 S/R 60%
9 Rich Dream 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +2.73 S/R 56%
8 John Locke 2.37 WIN 1.00 +1.37 +1.63 S/R 50%
7 Tawleed 1.83 WIN 2.00 +1.66 +0.26 S/R 43%
6 Galata Bridge 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 -1.40 S/R 33%
5 Nature Strip 1.61 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -2.50 S/R 20%
4 Sharing 2.50 WIN 1.00 +1.50 -1.50 S/R 25%
3 Bint Australia 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -3.00 S/R 0%
2 Amtiyaz 2.75 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -2.00 S/R 0%
1 Local Law 3.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 S/R 0%
SEPTEMBER: 16 WIN: 10 LOSE: 6 S/R 63% PROFIT: +6.24
(2521211111211311) FINISHED First or Second (87.50%)
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