PACAFI (19 September 2020)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Welcome to NO RISK BETTING. Following the advice of the Pacafi rationale cannot lose money, but first we ask the reader to absorb the rationale and make up their own mind regarding the winning chance and perceived value of each nomination. This is not a tip, it is the reason we are backing the John Gosden colt out of the mare Scuffle and what a brilliant mare she is turning out to be!

MONSOON MOON 2.05 Newmarket at 4/6

Close Brothers Motor Finance EBF Stallions Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10/GBB Race) (Class 4) (2yo) ROWLEY 1m

Pedigree: Eighth foal; half-sister to 5 winners inc Logician (1m2f-14.5f inc Leger; RPR 119), Suffused (7f-15.5f inc 2yo/US Gr 3; 112), Collide (1m1f-1m6f inc AW; 112) & Battlement (7f-1m inc AW; 97); dam 1m winner (103), half-sister to 1m1f Gr 1 winner Cityscape

THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE

Trainer Form: 3-4 for 75%     (10)
RPR: 96                       (10)                                             
Optimum Ground: Good          (10)        
Optimum Distance: 1m          (10)
Jockey: Ryan Moore            (10)    
Total:                        (50)

Main danger: Sayyida 5/2

   Not given a great ride on debut...

Monsoon Moon was backed into 6/5 and a hot favourite to win in this grade on debut but she did not receive the very best ride from Martin Harley, why a horse has to travel four and five wide in a six-runner race is a mystery to those who think track craft. The timing of her run could also have been better and she would not be a Pacafi had that jockey kept the ride. Ryan Moore is in the saddle this time. 

This big long filly can only improve and we liked her head carriage and this half-sister to the yard's St Leger winner Logician holds a Fillies' Mile entry. It is quite staggering what the dam has achieved so far with her offspring. We look at each of her other progeny: 

LOGICIAN:   6-6  for 100%  John Gosden   £526,543   RP 119
SUFFUSED:   7-19 for  37%  William Mott  £499,904   RP 112
COLLIDE:    6-16 for  38%  Hugo Palmer    £80,206   RP 112
BATTLEMENT: 3-11 for  27%  Roger Charlton £36,244   RP  97
SLEEP WALK: 3-5  for  60%  Roger Charlton  £9,082   RP  90

TOTAL:     25-57 for  44%

The strike rate of her progeny is staggering yet alone the amount of winning prize money. After her good debut she looks certain to feature on the progeny leader board.

Trainer form

John Gosden continues to be in great form with 3 of his last 4 runners winning and the other finishing second. His national average is 24% and the last 14 days show 10-39 for 26% so above that.

JOHN GOSDEN
Newmarket:          241-1417 for 17% (+81.87)
Newmarket (July):   199-1050 for 19% (+14.94)

CHARLIE APPLEBY
Newmarket:            81-303 for 27% (+81.75)
Newmarket (July):     68-311 for 22% (-39.58)

Who would have thought had you backed every runners of Gosden's at Newmarket you would have banked nearly 100 points to level stakes! Charlie Appleby is another who loves this course and betters the Gosden on both Newmarket courses and on national average where he records 26%. These two trainers will provide the first and second today.

Contenders

Mizaaj faded badly in the closing stages in the soft going at Haydock on her introduction but can finish closer on this faster surface while Haija is a stablemate to the selection and fellow newcomer Sayyida looks the main danger. She is a Dubawi filly and a half-sister to Derby winner Masar so holds a striking pedigree and also holds Group 1 Fillies' Mile entry. Had this filly been expected to win on debut would Bretty Doyle been riding? I don't think so but we appreciate William Buick is at Newbury today with a full book of rides and two of those are in Group 3s. But what about James Doyle, he has 5 rides at Newbury and not one of those is for Appleby.

Timeform

 A fascinating clash in prospect in which Charlie Appleby's newcomer SAYYIDA, a Dubawi half-sister to Derby winner Masar no less, is taken to edge out promising Ascot third Monsoon Moon from the powerful John Gosden yard. The two Fillies' Mile entrants look to have this between them with another debutante Haija, also trained by John Gosden, appealing as the pick of the remainder.

 The 4/6 is probably the right price and on this occasion we are not claiming perceived value though we think our wager will win, but the advice is to search for something closer to 4/5. We have nibbled at 1.8 on Betfair Exchange and hope to continue through the night...

17 Monsoon Moon        1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +6.91  S/R 65%
16 Al Sayaariyah R4    2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.12  +6.24  S/R 63%
15 Ready To Venture    1.90  WIN  1.00  +0.85  +5.12  S/R 60%
14 Toussarok (S)       3.25  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  +4.27  S/R 57%
13 Final Thoughts      2.75  WIN  1.00  +1.75  +5.52  S/R 62%
12 Jadoomi             1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +3.77  S/R 58%
11 Ghaiyyath           1.62  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +3.10  S/R 55%
10 Second Slip         2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +4.10  S/R 60%
 9 Rich Dream          2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +2.73  S/R 56%
 8 John Locke          2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +1.63  S/R 50%
 7 Tawleed             1.83  WIN  2.00  +1.66  +0.26  S/R 43%
 6 Galata Bridge       2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  -1.40  S/R 33%
 5 Nature Strip        1.61  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.50  S/R 20%
 4 Sharing             2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  -1.50  S/R 25%
 3 Bint Australia      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.00  S/R  0%
 2 Amtiyaz             2.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R  0%
 1 Local Law           3.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

SEPTEMBER: 17 WIN: 11  LOSE: 6  S/R 65%  PROFIT: +6.91

(25212111112113111) FINISHED First or Second (88.24%)

***

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