Pacafi (20 September 2020)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Welcome to NO RISK BETTING. Following the advice of the Pacafi rationale cannot lose money, but first we ask the reader to absorb the rationale and make up their own mind regarding the winning chance and perceived value of each nomination. This is not a tip, it is the horse we have backed for tomorrow!

IMRAHOR 3.10 Hamilton at 4/6

Usave Utilities Contracts Novice Stakes (Class 5) (3yo+) 1m68y

Pedigree: First foal; dam placed 7f at 2yrs (RPR 73), half-sister to 1m1f Group 3 winner Scintiulla, 6f 2yo Group 3 winner Cuis Ghaire, Group-placed 7f 2yo winner Gile Na Greine, 1m4f Listed winner The Major General and Group-placed 1m winner Claiomh Solais


Trainer Form: 3-7 for 43%     (10)
OR & RPR: 87 & 98             (10)                                             
Optimum Ground: Good          (10)        
Optimum Distance: 1m          (10)
Jockey: Ben Curtis            (10)    
Total:                        (50)

Main danger: Marreyr 3/1

Ability in two starts and looks above average

Imrahor has shown signs of ability in two career starts for Hugo Palmer, finding just one too good on each occasion, and wouldn't be winning out of turn at the third time of asking. He is out of a half-sister to a Group 3 winner, the form of his recent Newmarket run looks to be above average and this appears a nice opening for the 3yo.

Stay further in time

Today is a Class 5 Novice at Hamilton whilst his last good run was in a Class 5 Novice at Newmarket so effectively a drop in grade. That was a fascinating and likely well above-average novice event and though the favourite failed to give his running, the first three home all looked very useful. He raced a bit out on a wing throughout towards the far side but stayed on encouragingly to build on the promise he had shown when second in a 7f Newbury novice on his sole start as a 2yo. Out of a half-sister to 1m1f Group 3 winner Scintiulla, he shapes as though he will stay further in time and we hope to see him hit the line hard.

Trainer form

Hugo Palmer has his horses in good form at the moment where 3 of his last 7 runner have won at 10/3, 15/8 and 11/4. His last 14 days show 6-21 for 29% so well above his national average of 16%. He does not send many horses to Hamilton but he is 4-6 for 67% (+5.22) so of real significance. With 3yos those figures become 4-5 for 80% (+6.22). Ben Curtis rides and the combination value is 25-96 for 26% (+1.59).

Interesting the owner breeder V I Araci has a number of horses with Palmer and this one has a higher rating than Warren Rose who has already won a race. In fact Imrahor has a higher rating that the other 6 that has run this season. So, they will be keen for their colt to get a win under his belt sharpish, before kicking on to better things and tomorrow looks important in that context.

Also interesting to note the trainer has another engaged at Hamilton tomorrow so presumably sending both up at the same time. The entry is worth a second look: Hlaitan 5.50 Hamilton. He then sends just one to Beverley on Tuesday where he records 6-23 for 26% (+0.23).


The danger is clearly Marreyr a 160,000gns yearling, Pivotal colt. He is a half-brother to several winners, including the smart winner up to 1m Hors de Combat, and useful winner up to 6.3f Stroll Patrol. Yukon shaped better than the bare result suggested when 5th on debut at Redcar last month and has a place chance,


  A reproduction of IMRAHOR's runner-up effort at Newmarket in June should be enough for Hugo Palmer's colt to get off the mark at the third time of asking. Yukon looks the pick of David O'Meara's pair and he can chase the selection home after a promising debut effort in fifth last month, while any support for newcomer Marreyr would put a different slant on things.

 The 4/6 about Imrahor feels very similar to our Pacafi yesterday though we are not considering the horse concerned in the same class, but the fact he has one horse to beat in a well bred debutant Marreyr. The 92 day break since he last ran is a slight negative but David Milne of the Racing Post told us the colt has just produced some smart work on the watered gallop at Newmarket, this encourages the bet further.

Imrahor traded at a low of 1.59 and BSP of 8.60 when losing last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field.

UPDATE: We are nibbling at 1.72 and 1.73 on the exchange and that feels like value given our rationale. There is still small money to these prices at 08.21. Unibet offer 8/11 (not best price guaranteed) at 08.23. That must be value! The ease in price is more likely to do with each way money coming for Yukon than our main danger...

18 Imrahor             1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +7.58  S/R 67%
17 Monsoon Moon        1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +6.91  S/R 65%
16 Al Sayaariyah R4    2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.12  +6.24  S/R 63%
15 Ready To Venture    1.90  WIN  1.00  +0.85  +5.12  S/R 60%
14 Toussarok (S)       3.25  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  +4.27  S/R 57%
13 Final Thoughts      2.75  WIN  1.00  +1.75  +5.52  S/R 62%
12 Jadoomi             1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +3.77  S/R 58%
11 Ghaiyyath           1.62  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +3.10  S/R 55%
10 Second Slip         2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +4.10  S/R 60%
 9 Rich Dream          2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +2.73  S/R 56%
 8 John Locke          2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +1.63  S/R 50%
 7 Tawleed             1.83  WIN  2.00  +1.66  +0.26  S/R 43%
 6 Galata Bridge       2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  -1.40  S/R 33%
 5 Nature Strip        1.61  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.50  S/R 20%
 4 Sharing             2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  -1.50  S/R 25%
 3 Bint Australia      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.00  S/R  0%
 2 Amtiyaz             2.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R  0%
 1 Local Law           3.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

SEPTEMBER: 18 WIN: 12  LOSE: 6  S/R 67%  PROFIT: +7.58

(252121111121131111) FINISHED First or Second (88.89%)


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