PACAFI (22 September 2020)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

TITIAN 5.40 Newcastle at 6/4

Sky Sports Racing/British EBF Novice Stakes (Class 5) (2yo) 1m5y

Pedigree: E15,000 Y; first foal; dam French 1m2f-1m4f winner, half-sister to 1m4f Group 2 winner The Black Princess out of close relative of 10.5f (French Derby) Group 1 winner Lawman and half-sister to French Oaks winner Latice


Trainer Form: 5-10 for 50%    (10)
RPR: 91                       (10)                                             
Optimum Ground: Slow          (10)        
Optimum Distance: 1m          (10)
Jockey: Danny Tudhope         (10)    
Total:                        (50)

Main danger: Alpha King 2/1

Ran on powerfully on soft ground over 7f on debut

Titian is a promising sort and set the bar pretty high given his good debut but we have to set aside his second run. On debut at Newmarket on soft conditions in a Class 4 Maiden over 7f he was seen to good effect running on powerfully in the late stages once hitting the rising ground. He did not have a hard race and promised to improve for the run. The trainer was obviously impressed with the run because his next entry was in a Class 2 Maiden at Goodwood over 7f but on good to firm ground. 

Poor run at Goodwood - gelded since...

Something was not right at Goodwood, he opened at around 6/4 favourite was allowed to drift to 9/4 with Tom Marquand in the saddle and then did not show up. He dwelt at the start, then prominent, pushed along over 2f our and wandered around 1f out before weakening. We can only assume either the ground was wrong for him (the betting market thought that too) or his mind was elsewhere, he has since been gelded hence the 52 day break.

Trainer form

Trainer William Haggas is in brilliant form with his horses and 5 of his last 10 runners have won at good prices including 11/10, 15/2, 9/2, 7/2 and 9/2. He is one of the few trainers to almost match the John Gosden (24%) national average and score at 23% and generally match some interesting 2yo strike rates. By the way, if Haggas is 5-10 for 50% then John Gosden is 6-13 for 46%.

William Haggas 2yos
GENERAL:   524-3026 for 17% (-456.00)
NEWCASTLE:  10-28   for 36%  (+12.03)
2020:       14-88   for 16%  (-14.42)

John Gosden 2yos
GENERAL:   837-4111 for 20% (-241.63)
NEWCASTLE:  19-43   for 44%  (+12.36)
2020:       15-88   for 17%  (-25.40)

Mathematics and logic tells us there is nothing between the two trainers but the Gosden colt is a 5 May foal and having his first run as a 2yo over a slow and testing mile. He has to give away experience, the fact that the Pacafi was running on over 7f on soft ground and a Racing Post Rating of 91 to win and that looks a big ask.


Danny Tudhope rides for Haggas and currently on a losing run of 19 (3 second places) so looking to get on the score sheet. When he rides for the trainer the combination show a very good 56-179 for 31% (-7.88) though 12-49 for 24% (-15.40) with his 2yos.


John Gosden has sent out the last two winners of this and the newcomer Alpha King will take some beating and is the main danger, but the trainer's winning 2yos do not have the same winning numbers of his 3yo and 4yos+ but he is a full-brother to winning stablemate Tsar and a half-brother to a Group 3 winner. Third place will probably go to the Hugo Palmer trained The Rosstafarian who is a half-brother to the useful 2yo 6f winner Double Kodiac. One of these three will win and we have not considered others.


  ALPHA KING has all the credentials to be well above average, a full brother to the smart Tsar and with a top handler, so it's worth taking a chance that he can make a winning start. Titian would prove a formidable opponent if building on his debut at the second attempt and The Rosstafarian is another interesting newcomer.

 The 6/4 taken looks to be perceived value if the Gosden's entry needs the run/fails to beat a RPR of 91. If our Pacafi runs to his debut form he will be hard to beat back on slower conditions. Obviously the market will tell us more about Alpha King (late foal 5 May) but our guess is he will come on for the run. 

Titian traded at a low of 2.82 and BSP of 3.08 when losing last time, a race in which it raced prominently.

19 Titian R4           2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.20  +8.78  S/R 68%
18 Imrahor             1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +7.58  S/R 67%
17 Monsoon Moon        1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +6.91  S/R 65%
16 Al Sayaariyah R4    2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.12  +6.24  S/R 63%
15 Ready To Venture    1.90  WIN  1.00  +0.85  +5.12  S/R 60%
14 Toussarok (S)       3.25  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  +4.27  S/R 57%
13 Final Thoughts      2.75  WIN  1.00  +1.75  +5.52  S/R 62%
12 Jadoomi             1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +3.77  S/R 58%
11 Ghaiyyath           1.62  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +3.10  S/R 55%
10 Second Slip         2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +4.10  S/R 60%
 9 Rich Dream          2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +2.73  S/R 56%
 8 John Locke          2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +1.63  S/R 50%
 7 Tawleed             1.83  WIN  2.00  +1.66  +0.26  S/R 43%
 6 Galata Bridge       2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  -1.40  S/R 33%
 5 Nature Strip        1.61  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.50  S/R 20%
 4 Sharing             2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  -1.50  S/R 25%
 3 Bint Australia      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.00  S/R  0%
 2 Amtiyaz             2.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R  0%
 1 Local Law           3.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

SEPTEMBER: 19 WIN: 13  LOSE: 6  S/R 68%  PROFIT: +8.78

(2521211111211311111) FINISHED First or Second (89.47%)


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