How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse takes this opportunity to explain why we record the finishing positions of the Pacafi and the relevance of finishing first or second. 

Since we launched the strategy in June 2010 it has consistently produced a winning strike rate in excess of 50%, promised and delivered incremental gains and comes attached with a NO RISK coupling. However, it is not a strategy the vast majority of bettors deem sexy. they much prefer wham bam thank you ma'am hoping for instant gratification but waking up in disappointment city!

The strategy and the rationale that accompanies is sound, it has historically produced a first or second place over 75%+ of the time. The intrinsic nature of the bet suggests the nomination will win or just fail, very few bomb out! Races of interest are heavily selected to promote, foster and make sharp the strategy so come without those general negative components which hinder. For example, handicaps rarely feature unless there is a stand-out.

 Our nominations are usually favourites, the price that accompanies them can be short. So, although the strategy is proven, the profits are tight and we have to be vigilant, smart and understand the true meaning of value to stay ahead of the game, and that is exactly what we do and do well.

Value is everything in a wager and understanding the market place in which we engage is proven to members day after day within the common sense rationale.  Pricing up the top three or four in a race has become second nature and this crucial element represents an edge in wagering.

The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit. 

Once we have a draft of our rationale and the decision to wager provisionally made, we seek that illusive perceived value, when/if found consider a straight 1, 1½ or 2pt win stake - if there is no value there is no bet. The draft has clearly identified the probable winner, contenders, pretenders and those that cannot win, we then consider staking options.

For the sake of this explanation 1pt = 25 units or £25 and there are 4 staking options:

    • WIN STAKING (25 units)
    • WIN STAKING (20 units) & STAKE SAVER (5 units)
    • WIN STAKING (20 units) & PART-STAKE SAVER (5 units)
    • WIN STAKING (20 units) & COMPUTER STRAIGHT FORECAST (5 units)

These numbers are rarely exact (because of argument weighting) but reflect the core ingredients of our wager. The SAVE part of the bet is never more than 20% of our total stake as it must not compromise the integrity of the bet/profit. The intention is for the value secured within the Pacafi can part/fully compensate the save option.

The stake saving options are not always about covering the original stake but to give comfort/protection to the strategy as a whole over time, whilst at the same time picking up those incremental gains. This helps both manually and psychologically in our aim to profit over the medium to long term.

The PACAFI is an acronym for Professional, Calculated & Filtered Investment

Invariably when the Pacafi is beaten it is usually by our described main danger, failing that by a contender covered in our rationale. When the Pacafi is beaten it is most likely to come second so remind members of our 75%+ strike rate of a first or second finish placing. Unfortunately there are no exact figures to hand of those main dangers winning, but they represent a huge majority over the contenders.

So just to recap, the strategy produces winners at more than 50%, it produces winners and main danger winners at around 70%, and winners, main dangers and contenders well over 75% of the time on the Flat. The numbers are slightly down (around 5%) over the jumps.

For example, if we look at our last quarter there has been 67 nominations and the Pacafi has finished first or second 55 times for a strike rate of 82.09%. More recently, since 1 September we have advised 37 nominations and 33 have finished first or second for 89.19%. We regularly hit 80%+ in a calendar month on the Flat though the National Hunt figures are lower with pulled up and fallers coming into play but we generally hit close to 70%.

The majority of our bets are 1pt win straight without any type of saver. It is within this bandwidth we consider minimum to maximum stakes. On a personal note we consider 1pt, 1½pt or 2pts each day for each bet, and during the build up to a race can increase or decrease our stake as a situation demands. Because of time restraints these movements/flexibility cannot be passed on/advised but our view is a bet can change shape from conception to post-time. We never treat wagers as a one-off exercise though we appreciate we can dedicate the time, whilst many do not have that luxury.

The second and third categories are self explanatory. An example, we might find it prudent to back a 6/4 favourite to 20 units (30 - 5 = +25) believing it will shorten in price before the off, and back a second or third favourite as a part-stake saver or stake saver at 3/1. If the saver shortens or stays the same price and wins the race we lose 5 units of our 1pt stake (20 - 15 = -5). If the danger eases to 4/1 then we have a stake saver situation if we can secure best price guaranteed (20 - 20 = 0).

COMPUTER STRAIGHT FORECAST and EXACTA: Forecast bets are not generally associated with professionals but they serve a role in our strategy and the mathematics it has been built upon. This element is not introduced to make a profit per se but to comfort/protect our stake and promote longevity and in this regard is successful!

   The fourth category is generally misunderstood. Because the Pacafi finishes first or second around 75%+ of the time we use/profit from this certainty! In a typical 8-runner Novice Stakes Class 5 Race there are usually two or three who cannot realistically win no matter what - so eliminated. The Pacafi might have three or four to beat so we place small stakes on those to beat our Pacafi in a COMPUTER STRAIGHT FORECAST or EXACTA. Typically two of those will result in a small loss to the original stake but the other two offer chances of a profit overall from the race despite a beaten Pacafi. We rarely cover four horses but sometimes circumstances dictate we do.

Most bettors consider this mathematical style of betting boring and time consuming and we get that, but it has provided the author a third pension whilst adding to his love and interest of horse racing. The betting industry consensus is 98% of bettors lose - we are part of the 2%.

This approach literally means the whole stake is exposed less than three times in 10. This surety suits our risk versus reward personality and most importantly do not suffer long debilitating losing runs. Of course we readily accept this strategy and its approach is unique just to the author, and there are not two people who have the same risk versus reward, but we hope to have conveyed this is a no risk strategy first up and secondly it makes incremental gains. If you are still reading this many thanks for allowing us to explain...

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Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose

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