How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse explains why we record and highlight the finishing positions of the Pacafi and especially the relevance of finishing first or second. 

Since we launched the strategy in June 2011 it has consistently produced a winning strike rate in excess of 50%, promised and delivered incremental gains and genuinely has a NO RISK structure. However, this is not a strategy the vast majority of bettors deem sexy, most search for a wham bam thank you ma'am approach to betting, hoping for instant gratification - invariably they wake up disappointed.

The strategy and the rationale that accompanies it is sound, and historically produced a first or second place over 75%+ of the time. The inherent nature of the wager suggests the nomination will win or just fail, very few bomb out and there is a reason for that!

Races of interest are especially selected to promote, foster and make sharp the strategy, so come without the more familiar negative components which hinder probability.

 Our nominations are usually favourites, the price that accompanies them can be short. This means although the strategy is proven the profits are tight and we have to be vigilant, smart and understand the true meaning of value to stay ahead of the game.

Though a subjective matter, value is absolutely everything in a wager and understanding the market place in which we engage, is proven to members day after day within the common sense rationale.  Pricing up the top three or four in a race has become second nature to us, and this crucial element represents an edge in wagering.

The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning, and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

For the sake of this explanation 1pt = 25 units or £25 and there are 4 staking options: Once we have a draft of our rationale and the decision to wager provisionally made, we seek (hard to find) perceived value, when/if found consider a straight 1, 1½ or 2pt win stake - if there is no value there is no bet. The draft has clearly identified the probable winner, contenders, pretenders and those that cannot win, we then consider those 4 staking options.

    • WIN STAKING (25 units)
    • WIN STAKING (20 units) & STAKE SAVER (5 units)
    • WIN STAKING (20 units) & PART-STAKE SAVER (5 units)

Because of argument weighting these numbers are rarely exact but reflect the core stake-ingredients of our wager. The SAVE part of the bet is never more than 20% of our total stake as it must not be allowed to compromise the integrity of the bet/profit. The intention is for the perceived value secured within the Pacafi to part/fully compensate the save option.

The stake-saving options are not always about covering the whole of the original stake but to give comfort/protection to the strategy as a whole over time, whilst at the same time picking up those incremental gains. This helps both manually and psychologically in our aim to profit over the medium to long term.

The PACAFI is an acronym for Professional, Calculated & Filtered Investment

Invariably when the Pacafi is beaten it is usually by our chronicled main danger, failing that by a contender covered in our rationale. When the Pacafi is beaten it is most likely to come second so remind members of our 75%+ strike rate of a first or second finish placing. 

So just to recap, the strategy produces outright winners at more than 50%, it produces winners and main danger winners in excess of 70%, and winners, main dangers and contenders in excess of 75% of the time. 

For example, if we look at our last quarter there has been 67 nominations and the Pacafi has finished first or second 55 times for a strike rate of 82.09%. More recently, since 1 September we have advised 37 nominations and 33 have finished first or second for 89.19%. We regularly hit 80%+ in a calendar month on the Flat though the National Hunt figures are a little lower with pulled up and fallers coming into play, but we generally hit close to 70% (figures posted 20 September 2020).

Looking again at our results for 2019 there was 232 advised wagers shared with members of which 182 finished first or second for a strike rate of 78.45%. These figures include a number of speculative wagers at the Cheltenham Festival in March, and if we removed those our figures show 176-219 for 80.37%, which is a better guide.

The majority of our bets are 1pt win straight without any type of saver. It is within this bandwidth we consider minimum to maximum stakes. On a personal note we consider 1pt, 1½pt or 2pts each day for each bet, and during the build up to a race can increase or decrease our stake as a situation demands. Because of time restraints these movements/flexibility cannot be passed on/advised, but our view is a bet can change shape from conception to birth (post-time) when seeking a maximisation/advantage of our transaction. 

We never treat wagers as a one-off exercise, but do appreciate many do not have the time/inclination.

The second and third categories are self explanatory. Example: We might find it prudent to back a 6/4 favourite to 20 units (+30) in the belief it will shorten in price before the off, and then back a second or third favourite as a part-stake saver or full stake saver at 3/1 (+15). If the saver shortens and wins the race we lose 5 units of our 1pt stake (20-15 = -5). If the danger eases to 4/1 (bpg) then we have a stake-saver situation (20-20 = 0).

COMPUTER STRAIGHT FORECAST and EXACTA: Forecast bets are not generally associated with professionals, but they serve a role in our strategy and the mathematics it has been built upon. This element is not introduced to make a profit per se, but to comfort/protect our stake and promote longevity, and in this regard is successful!

   The fourth category is generally misunderstood. Because the Pacafi finishes first or second around 75%+ of the time we profit from this certainty! In a typical 8-runner Novice Stakes Class 5 Race there are usually two or three who cannot realistically win, no matter what - so eliminated. The Pacafi might have three or four to beat so we place small stakes on those to beat our Pacafi in a COMPUTER STRAIGHT FORECAST or EXACTA. Typically two of those will result in a small loss to the original stake but the other two offer chances of a profit overall from the race, despite a beaten Pacafi. We rarely cover four horses but sometimes circumstances dictate it.

Most bettors consider this mathematical style of betting boring and time consuming and we get that, but it has provided the author a third pension whilst adding to his love and interest of horse racing. The betting industry consensus is 98% of bettors lose - we are part of the 2%.

This approach literally means the whole stake is exposed less than three times in 10. This surety suits our risk versus reward personality and most importantly do not suffer long debilitating losing runs. Of course, we readily accept this strategy and its approach is unique just to the author. There are not two people who have the same risk versus reward, but we hope to have conveyed this is a no risk strategy first up, and secondly it makes incremental gains. If you are still reading this many thanks for allowing us to explain...


Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk, and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose

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