PACAFI (6 October 2020)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

FINAL VOYAGE 5.50 Southwell at 5/6

Sky Sports Racing On Sky 415 Novice Stakes (Class 5) (2yo) 7f14y

Pedigree 

 E75,000 Y; seventh foal; half-brother to winners Mushaakis (5f-9.7f inc 2yo/AW/UAE dirt; RPR 96), Burma Star (9.7f; 78) and Point Of Honour (1m2f; 70); dam 7f AW 2yo winner (83), sister to 7f-1m1f winner Karaka Jack out of 7f Listed winner

The Racing Horse Composite

Trainer Form: 4-43 for 16%     (9)
RPR: 85                       (10)                                             
Optimum Ground: Standard       (9)        
Optimum Distance: 7f          (10)
Jockey: William Buick         (10)    
Total:                        (50)

Main danger: Capla Dream 2/1

 Trainer form

The Racing Horse rarely backs trainers out of form but on this occasion are doing so and we will start with an explanation as to why. Estimation and context is everything generally but even more so in this tactical four runner race on the unique Fibresand surface. We look at the form and figures of the two trainers who will almost certainly provide the winner:

James Tate
October:          0-2   for  0%  (-2.00)
September:        4-41  for 10% (-17.67)
Total:            4-43  for  9% (-19.67)
Southwell:       24-93  for 26% (+21.28)
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Karl Burke
October:          0-11  for  0% (-11.00)
September:        4-78  for  5% (-41.50)
Total:            4-89  for  4% (-52.50)
Southwell:      145-942 for 15% (+22.88)

Interesting the Racing Post records Karl Burke as an in-form trainer and James Tate out of form. Basing their comments on a 14-day window is always a mistake. We believe both trainers are out of form but note Tate's strike rate is twice as high as that of Burke. Both trainer's excel at this course and that counts for plenty, but Tate has William Buick in the saddle whilst Burke has the moderate to poor Shane Kelly - there is no comparison to made between these two jockeys, and it is our opinion offsets most of the weight advantage of Capla Dream.

Jockeyship

One thing to bear in mind for the rest of the Flat season is William Buick is going for the champion jockey title and will give every ride maximum thought and effort. Although Kelly (75-620 for 12%) has much more experience on the surface than Buick (9-69 for 13%) he will not be able to match the jockey's preparation. We expect Buick to make full use of Final Voyage and his experience.

Winner on the AW, then third on the slower surface at Kempton

Final Voyage is a lightly raced winner. Interesting he was a creditable third of 8 in a nursery over 7f at Kempton 31 days ago and the track has been riding slow, which hints that he might take to the surface even though the sire has a modest record here. That race looks much stronger than todays. Hopefully James Tate will have seen something to suggest his charge will take to the surface. Before the Kempton race he won at Chelmsford in July at 9/1 so a winner on the AW and the only horse in the race who is.

Contenders

Capla Dream receives 12lbs and this gives the filly a chance if our Pacafi underperforms from his Kempton run. Midfield has a nice pedigree and interesting to see how she fares in the market on debut but probably one for further next season. Madame Cholet was an 80/1 shot when a well-beaten last of six on her debut at Yarmouth over 7f on good to firm ground last month but will have to grow another leg to win this one.

Timeform

 An interesting novice in which the percentage call is to go with FINAL VOYAGE, who stands out on form and has comfortably the most experience. Capla Dream caught the eye over 6f at this course on debut, so she's expected to improve and Midfield makes plenty of appeal on pedigree.

It is impossible to say for sure if we have perceived value or not, we believe Final Voyage will beat Capla Dream who looks the only danger. 

Final Voyage traded at a low of 3.15 and BSP of 12.50 when losing last time, a race in which it raced towards the rear.

Last month was a great month for us! The bare results showed a profit of 9.87pts but we banked a personal profit of 14.77pts and our best return using the strategy this year. Only 3 wagers from the 24 advised finished outside the top 2.

We urge members to consider the following:

How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

Our website dashboard show that not all members have accessed the piece and we feel its importance has been missed. Later today we will post the piece by email to all members so apologies if you have already read/absorbed it.

5 Final Voyage        1.83  WIN  1.00  +0.83  -1.50  S/R 40%
4 Show Me A Sunset    1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.33  S/R 25%
3 Long Haired Lover   1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  -1.33  S/R 33%
2 Ebnzaidoon          2.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R  0%
1 Jacinth             2.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

OCTOBER: 5 WIN: 2  LOSE: 3  S/R 40%  LOSS: -1.50

(22121) FINISHED First or Second (100%)

24 Robinnia R4         2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.05  +9.87  S/R 67%
23 Aaddeey             1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +8.82  S/R 65%
22 Daysan              2.62  WIN  1.00  +1.62  +8.15  S/R 64%
21 Monday              2.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +6.53  S/R 62%
20 Toromona (S)        2.87  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  +7.53  S/R 65%
19 Titian R4           2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.20  +8.78  S/R 68%
18 Imrahor             1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +7.58  S/R 67%
17 Monsoon Moon        1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +6.91  S/R 65%
16 Al Sayaariyah R4    2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.12  +6.24  S/R 63%
15 Ready To Venture    1.90  WIN  1.00  +0.85  +5.12  S/R 60%
14 Toussarok (S)       3.25  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  +4.27  S/R 57%
13 Final Thoughts      2.75  WIN  1.00  +1.75  +5.52  S/R 62%
12 Jadoomi             1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +3.77  S/R 58%
11 Ghaiyyath           1.62  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +3.10  S/R 55%
10 Second Slip         2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +4.10  S/R 60%
 9 Rich Dream          2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +2.73  S/R 56%
 8 John Locke          2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +1.63  S/R 50%
 7 Tawleed             1.83  WIN  2.00  +1.66  +0.26  S/R 43%
 6 Galata Bridge       2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  -1.40  S/R 33%
 5 Nature Strip        1.61  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.50  S/R 20%
 4 Sharing             2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  -1.50  S/R 25%
 3 Bint Australia      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.00  S/R  0%
 2 Amtiyaz             2.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R  0%
 1 Local Law           3.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

SEPTEMBER: 24 WIN: 16  LOSE: 8  S/R 67%  PROFIT: +9.87

(252121111121131111124111) FINISHED First or Second (87.50%)

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