The Racing Horse has a sideway look at the 3.35 Newmarket: Together For Racing International Cesarewitch Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m2f ITV ..
For the sake of this blog we will not say what we think but what we know. Read on. There are 4 key trends for this race and if one thinks about the context and nature of the race these trends have a value and a common sense prerequisite.
17/18: Aged 4yo or older (94%)
15/18: Ran within the last 2 months (83%)
15/18: Won over at least 1m6f on Flat before (83%)
14/18: Carried 9st 2lbs or less (78%)
Average winning SP in last 18 years is 22/1
2 winning favourites since 1993 (7.69%)
Our first filter is remove horses trained by out of form trainers, we accept this phrase is subjective but trainer Thomas Mullins (TAKARENGO) has not had a winner since August and is now 1-36 for 2.78%.
So how many of the 34 runners meet the trends listed above? The rigours of the Cesarewitch demands the winner be 4yo or older and there is a 94% strike rate figure to support that view, and today the going is testing and this race is the fifth on the card. Two fancied 3yo horses are eliminated in COLTRANE and ARTHURIAN FABLE.
Because of the above the winner needs to have come to this race in good to prime condition so our second trend demands that the winner has raced within the last 2 months, this eliminates COEUR DE LION and JUKE BOX JIVE.
This race is ran over 2m2f and non-stayers get found out in any year but especially with tomorrow's soft going. MUKHA MAGIC has not even won over 1m6f on the Flat before so is eliminated.
The next trend can be described as tenuous but humping big weights around in this race is clearly difficult and the cutting point seems to stand at 9st 2lbs. Those carrying more weight than that are eliminated and include SUMMER MOON, CLEONTE, ALRIGHT SUNSHINE, ROCK EAGLE, RESHOUN, DIOCLETIAN, ISLAND BRAVE, NOT SO SLEEPY and INDIANAPOLIS.
The ground is soft tomorrow so we ask the remaining horses to have at least won on good to soft. On a personal note we would demand the horse previously be a winner on real soft ground. With this logic in mind AUSTRALIS, SMART CHAMPION, TRUE DESTINY, VIS A VIS, LEVER DU SOLEIL and GOLD ARCH are eliminated.
The average winning SP of this race over the past 18 seasons has been around 22/1. We are going to eliminate those 50/1 or over on tonight's prices so we can have a good look at the genuine contenders. BLUE LAUREATE, AUTHOR'S DREAM, MUTADAFFEQ and MR CHUA are eliminated.
We have been left with 10 runners who have met the critical minimum contender requirements. It is reasonable to assume this bandwidth contains those with live chances and not subject to punditry, hype, bias or randomness.
The contenders include:
Lynwood Gold 16/1
Just Hubert 20/1
Coeur De Lion 33/1
Dalton Highway 25/1
Future Investment 33/1
Whirling Dervish 33/1
So we started with 34 runners BUT only 10 contenders. We are a huge fan of Willie Mullins but his GREAT WHITE SHARK cannot contain perceived value at 7/1 so a negative from a win bet perspective and has been eliminated
So, a £10 bet on each of the other 9 runners would cost £90 and if one of our contenders win we would make a profit. These prices are neither best prices, nor best price guaranteed or exchange prices, so plenty of room to maximise returns should one of the contenders win.
We note Sky Bet are offering 8 places for this race and given our rationale a chance to make a small profit from a race otherwise impossible to read...
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