ASCOT RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (17 October 2020)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our powerful RACECOURSE TEMPLATE, RACING TRENDS and BETTING ADVICE for Ascot on Saturday 17 October 2020.

NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

2yo:   27-95  for 28% (-19.89)       4-6  for 67%  (+3.20)
3yo:   31-85  for 36%  (-7.94)     38-122 for 31%  (+4.61)
4yo+:  36-94  for 38%  (-5.21)     47-150 for 31% (+41.21)
Total: 94-274 for 34% (-33.04)     89-278 for 32% (+49.02)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at ASCOT for 2019
Roger Varian:    11 wins from 43 for 26% (+16.16)
John Gosden:      9 wins from 48 for 19% (-11.42)
Roger Charlton:   4 wins from 16 for 25%  (+4.12)
Charlie Fellowes: 4 wins from 17 for 24% (+51.50)
A P O'Brien:      4 wins from 34 for 12% (-16.58)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at ASCOT for past 5 years
John Gosden:     49 wins from 282 for 17%  (-32.60)
A P O'Brien:     33 wins from 257 for 13%  (-50.33)
Roger Varian:    27 wins from 167 for 16%  (-30.10)
Charlie Appleby: 24 wins from 158 for 15%  (-24.30)
Mark Johnston:   23 wins from 252 for  9% (-110.75)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at ASCOT for 2019
Jim Crowley:     11 wins from 43 for 26% (+30.29)
Frankie Dettori:  8 wins from 35 for 23%  (-0.63)
James Doyle:      5 wins from 32 for 16%  (-4.00)
Andrea Atzeni:    5 wins from 46 for 11% (-16.50)
Ryan Moore:       5 wins from 49 for 10% (-26.08)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at ASCOT for past 5 years
Ryan Moore:      45 wins from 273 for 16% (-89.22)
Frankie Dettori: 42 wins from 187 for 22% (+19.73)
William Buick:   33 wins from 204 for 16%  (-8.35)
James Doyle:     27 wins from 192 for 14% (-53.34)
Andrea Atzeni:   24 wins from 196 for 12% (-45.21)

INTERESTING...

Ascot is one of those rare courses where winning favourites in handicaps do better than those in non-handicaps, not in a strike rate category, but in profit to £1 level stake which is +£49.02 over the past 5 years.

Ascot (17 October 2020)

NEGATIVE FAVOURITE ALERT

The 3yo favourites tend to win non-handicaps at a strike rate between 42% and 46% but Ascot records just 36%, so if we accept favourites win at around 32% of races generally at courses like Wolverhampton, Chepstow and Brighton the 36% is a poor/small return!

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a math-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

 Disclaimer
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